ABSTRACT Increasing health issues and rising poverty rates in Nigeria have adversely impacted child health care utilization. This study X‐rays the wealth access and regional variations nexus in child healthcare utilization. The generalized linear model (GLM) approach and the concentration index were adopted, employing data elicited from the Nigeria demographic and health survey (NDHS) conducted in 2008 and 2018. The study identified a substantial variation in child healthcare utilization among households with varying wealth access levels, implying that as households' access to wealth increases, inequality in healthcare utilization reduces among children. Regional analysis shows that the northeast and northwest geopolitical zones exhibited a higher prevalence in child healthcare utilization inequality, due to distinct socioeconomic status, cultural, and religious practices. The study therefore recommends that to support and maintain the initiatives for health system reform, a communication plan and an efficient regionally based health management information system must be created. Again, to increase child healthcare accessibility and utilization, such programmes should include a thorough health promotion strategy that raises awareness and provides relevant education to low‐income households.
ABSTRACT In January 2024, Nigeria switched to inflation targeting with the policy rate reaching a historical high. However, inflation remained elevated, reflecting persistence, uncertainty, second‐round effects, and exchange rate depreciation. Thus, this study examines the implications of the interplay between inflation persistence, chaotic behaviour, and second‐round effects for the newly adopted inflation‐targeting regime. The study employs state‐space vector autoregressive models, entropy, and multifractal spectrum. First, the results show that inflation persistence is high and has been increasing since 2016. Second, findings reveal that periods of high inflation persistence coincide with substantial second‐round effects. Third, the analysis indicates that persistence is asymmetric across size and the inflation regimes. Finally, this study also observes complex chaotic behaviour and uncertainty in the inflation process. Overall, these findings suggest that the transition to inflation targeting may involve prolonged disinflation and substantial output costs if policy relies mainly on aggressive monetary tightening. Thus, the Central Bank should therefore monitor second‐round effects and treat the estimated threshold as an early‐warning indicator rather than an inflation target. Also, the bank may have to strengthen scenario‐based forecasting and coordinate monetary actions with fiscal and supply‐side measures addressing food, energy and exchange rate pressures.
Sub-Saharan Africa is simultaneously the world's most corrupt region and the global epicenter of life expectancy inequality. This paper examines the heterogeneous effects of overall, petty, and grand corruption on life expectancy inequality across 41 Sub-Saharan countries over 2010-2021, using two-stage least squares and quantiles via moments regression. Corruption significantly widens life expectancy inequality, with the effect growing stronger at higher quantiles, indicating that corruption amplifies pre-existing disparities rather than creating new ones. Both petty and grand corruption independently deepen health disparities: grand corruption dominates at higher quantiles through macro-institutional channels such as budget distortions and elite capture while petty corruption prevails at lower quantiles through regressive barriers to basic healthcare access. Policy responses should therefore be differentiated: frontline informal payments reduction in low-inequalities settings, and institutional oversight reform in highly unequal contexts, embedded with a broader universal health system strengthening framework.
ABSTRACT The increasing interconnectedness of the global economy has highlighted the importance of global economic policy uncertainty, which has been shown to affect the stability of the banking sector worldwide. Despite extensive research on the nexus between economic policy uncertainty and bank stability, there remains limited understanding of how policy‐variable‐based uncertainty affects Ghana's banking industry. This study examines how policy‐based economic uncertainty affects the financial soundness and stability of Ghana's banking industry, using monthly data from February 2008 to April 2023 for 13 listed banks. It develops a new economic uncertainty index and a financial soundness index for Ghana. Using the Heteroskedasticity Corrected Model, Ordinary Least Squares, Generalised Linear Model, and Quantile Regression models, the analysis shows that both policy‐based and composite uncertainty indices have a significant negative effect on banking stability. The paper recommends that policymakers enhance fiscal and monetary consistency and that banks integrate these measures into risk management to strengthen financial resilience.
The study examines both linear and non-linear relationships between natural resource rents and access to clean cooking technologies in Sub-Saharan Africa from 2000 to 2024. It employs the Driscoll-Kraay and the two-step system GMM estimators to address cross-sectional dependence and endogeneity. The findings reveal a complex relationship: negative linear and positive non-linear associations. The positive non-linear linkage suggests that as natural resource rents increase, reaching a potential threshold, the relationship reverses, with resource abundance becoming positively associated with access to clean cooking technologies. Robustness checks examining regional differences in access to clean cooking technologies show that the findings remain consistent across both rural and urban areas. Additionally, the study indicates that rents from oil, gas, minerals, coal, and forests are associated with higher levels of access to clean cooking technologies in a non-linear manner. This non-linear relationship across all types of resource rents highlights a turning point where rising and sustained resource rents become positively associated with greater adoption of clean cooking technologies, supporting the resource blessing hypothesis. Based on these findings, policy efforts should aim to strategically convert natural resource wealth into a driving force for inclusive energy access, particularly by promoting clean cooking technologies.
This study investigates the impact of democracy on fiscal discipline in West Africa, focusing on four fiscal outcomes: overall balance, primary balance, the cyclically adjusted primary balance, and changes in the debt-to-GDP ratio. Using panel data for 14 countries and employing fixed effects, Driscoll-Kraay, and instrumental variable estimators, the analysis accounts for unobserved heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and endogeneity. The results show that democracy, on its own, does not exert a robust or consistent disciplining effect on fiscal outcomes. However, democratic institutions conditionally improve overall balances when embedded within credible fiscal rule frameworks, particularly for observed fiscal and primary balances. In contrast, democracy has little explanatory power for debt dynamics and structural fiscal effort once cyclical factors are removed. Debt adjustment is driven mainly by inherited debt levels, while resource-rich countries exhibit faster debt accumulation. Overall, the findings suggest that in West Africa, democracy can enhance fiscal discipline, but its effectiveness depends on broader institutional credibility.
Motivated by the fact that the abundant existing literature fails to provide a fully satisfactory explanation of the dynamics of international reserves in various developing regions, the present article assesses the role of the currency zone. Specifically, we examine the role of Franc zone on international reserves in a sample of 42 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, over the period 1990-2018. Based on various panel data methods, we find that the Franc zone is negatively and significantly associated with reserves in SSA countries. This result is robust to the use of alternative measures of reserves as well as to the change in estimation technique. We show that these potential effects are channeled through trade intensity between member countries. Furthermore, the article shows that some heterogeneities, such as institutional quality, the size of the informal sector, climate shocks, economic complexity, economic uncertainty, geopolitical risks, the 1994 devaluation, the launch of the Euro in 1999, and the 2008 financial crisis, may have influenced the role of the Franc zone in reserves accumulation. Taken together, our results suggest reforms aimed at improving the institutional arrangements linking the Franc zone to France, as well as policies to promote structural transformation, aimed at intensifying intra-zone trade as well as countries' attractiveness.
Digital financial inclusion is a crucial driver of economic development in Africa, yet significant barriers persist, particularly for marginalized groups. This study examines the key determinants and barriers to digital financial inclusion in Africa using micro-level data from 29,042 adults in the World Bank Global Findex database. Our findings highlight the critical role of education, labor market participation, and access to information and communication technologies (ICT) in facilitating digital financial inclusion. However, African women and low-income individuals face substantial obstacles, including limited access to mobile phones, high transaction costs, lack of official documentation, and reliance on intermediaries. Education emerges as a powerful enabler, significantly increasing the likelihood of using digital financial services. Importantly, our study distinguishes between voluntary exclusion and involuntary barriers, shedding light on systemic constraints that prevent individuals from participating in digital finance. By identifying these structural limitations, our research provides a nuanced understanding of digital financial exclusion in Africa and informs targeted policy interventions to bridge the financial divide.
Building on recent economic complexity scholarship, this paper examines the contingent effects of economic complexity, ICT penetration, and human capital development on income inequality in Africa. The system Generalized Method of Moments estimator is deployed on a panel data that include 34 African countries from 1995 to 2021. The results, which are consistent with the skill-biased technological change theory, show that economic complexity unconditionally widens income inequality in Africa. However, ICT and human capital development counteract the adverse effects and help complement economic complexity in reducing income inequality in Africa. In other words, when economic complexity is conditioned on adequate human capital and ICT, income inequality narrows. The ICT components worthy of note and required to effectively complement economic complexity in reducing income inequality are the internet and fixed broadband subscriptions. Also, human capital development indicators such as secondary and tertiary school enrollments as well as secondary and tertiary school pupil-teacher ratios are relevant to effectively complement economic complexity in reducing income inequality in Africa. Relevant policy directives are provided.
This study investigates the economic implications of the withdrawal of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)-Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger-from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) using a multi-regional computable general equilibrium model. The results show that reintroducing customs duties on trade with non-WAEMU ECOWAS countries increases import costs and redirects trade flows toward WAEMU members and global markets. While imports from non-WAEMU ECOWAS partners decline, domestic demand rises slightly in manufacturing and extractive sectors. Household consumption, income, and investment remain broadly stable, indicating short-term economic resilience, with stronger investment growth in Niger. Sectoral effects vary, extractive and heavy industries expand in Niger, textiles and light manufacturing grow in Burkina Faso and Mali, while transport, livestock, and some service sectors contract. These findings highlight the need for targeted policies to support structural adjustment, strengthen intra-AES trade, diversify external partnerships, modernize key sectors, and facilitate labor market transitions.
This study estimates the size of the shadow economy in Tunisia over the period 1988-2023 using the Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model, which assesses a latent variable based on its causes and indicators. The analysis was carried out in three steps: identifying the main causes (tax pressure, unemployment, trade openness, and corruption) and key indicators (GDP growth, M0/M2 ratio, labor force participation rate); constructing a shadow economy index from the estimated coefficients of the causal variables, and calibrating it as a percentage of GDP. The results reveal an average size of 39.08%, with peaks during the 2011 Revolution (41.70%) and the COVID-19 crisis in 2020 (46.62%), illustrating its sensitivity to shocks. The persistence of these activities in Tunisia underscores the need for structural reforms in tax, regulatory, institutional, and labor market policies to foster integration into the formal economy.
The water-energy-food (WEF) nexus is central to sustainable development, yet many resource-rich African countries continue to experience persistent shortfalls in access to these essential services. The challenge lies not in resource scarcity, but in how natural resource wealth is governed and distributed. This study examines how dependence on resource rents and income inequality jointly shape WEF performance in Africa. Using panel data for 30 African countries spanning 1996-2022, this study constructs a composite water-energy-food (WEF) index and implements a distribution-sensitive econometric framework. Average long-run effects are estimated using the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) estimator, while heterogeneity across the conditional distribution of WEF performance is examined through Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR). A panel threshold model is further applied to identify the inequality level at which the adverse impact of resource rent dependence intensifies. The results show that resource rents systematically undermine WEF outcomes, particularly energy access, while income inequality significantly amplifies these negative effects. A critical threshold is identified at a Gini coefficient of approximately 45, beyond which WEF performance deteriorates sharply. These findings suggest Africa's "paradox of plenty" reflects a distributional governance failure, underscoring the need for inequality-sensitive rent management and equitable WEF access.
This paper investigates the potential economic implications of the withdrawal of Sahelian countries (Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger), called the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), from the Economic Commission for West African States (ECOWAS). Specifically, the paper investigates the potential impact of the AES withdrawal on trade flows (exports and imports), economic growth, migrants' remittances, and tax revenue in the Sahel States and the ECOWAS. An impulse response function (IRF) analysis, inspired by Bernanke et al., is applied using a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) model, with annual data from 1980 to 2022. We find that a shock to ECOWAS intra-community total import would lead to a marginal decline in the tax revenue of Burkina Faso and Mali. Counterintuitively, a shock to ECOWAS intra-community exports would increase Mali's exports to the rest of ECOWAS. Moreover, trade diversion effects arising from the exit of the AES countries could increase exports for ECOWAS's three lead economies (C & ocirc;te d'Ivoire, Ghana, and Nigeria). In this regard, AES countries should leverage the existing favorable trade dynamism with their respective neighboring countries (Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Senegal, Nigeria) through the development of bilateral cooperation initiatives and strengthen trade cooperation among them.
The article assesses the effects of fiscal policy on banking profitability, looking separately the effects of government securities and tax pressure on ROE and ROA. Applying the Pooled Mean Group in the WAEMU-panel countries from 1990 to 2021, this article provides two results: (i) government securities positively and significantly affect ROE/ROA up to a maximum threshold of 19.41% of GDP; and (ii) tax pressure negatively and significantly affects ROE/ROA up to a maximum threshold of 19.42%. Three implications emerge: (i) monetary authorities must prevent any contagion between public finances and banking crises by setting an indicative ceiling, adjusting the reserve requirement ratio upwards or resorting to restrictive open market operations; (ii) the cap reduces the crowding out of private credit through preferential refinancing lines for productive credit; (iii) government authorities must improve tax revenue mobilisation and adopt tax and regulatory incentives for private credit, such as targeted tax reductions or the creation of public guarantees.
Africa continues to grapple with limited access to modern energy, environmental degradation, socio-economic inequality, and weak institutional frameworks. These issues collectively pose a challenge to the continent's progress toward achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030. This study investigates the influence of clean energy adoption, natural endowments, and socio-economic dynamics on sustainable development in Africa, controlling for national leadership quality. The study employs Feasible Generalised Least Squares and Panel Correlated Standard Errors on panel data covering 2000- 2022. Findings reveal that the adoption of clean energy and socio-economic dynamics significantly enhance sustainable development. Conversely, natural resource endowments negatively impact sustainable development. These findings are corroborated by the robustness tests. The results emphasise the need for integrated policies that promote the expansion of clean energy, socio-economic transformation, and effective resource governance, while strengthening institutions. These strategies are vital for steering Africa toward a sustainable development trajectory and meeting its 2030 SDG commitments.
Des travaux r & eacute;cents soutiennent l'& eacute;vidence selon laquelle les dommages et les risques climatiques impactent n & eacute;gativement les performances des entreprises, des institutions bancaires et assimil & eacute;es. R & eacute;sum & eacute;Toutefois, certains auteurs soulignent & agrave; l'inverse les m & eacute;rites des innovations financi & egrave;res induites par la vuln & eacute;rabilit & eacute; au changement climatique des & eacute;conomies. S'invitant dans ce d & eacute;bat, la pr & eacute;sente recherche analyse l'effet de la vuln & eacute;rabilit & eacute; au changement climatique des & eacute;conomies sur la stabilit & eacute; financi & egrave;re en Afrique subsaharienne. & Agrave; cet effet, une base de donn & eacute;es a & eacute;t & eacute; construite & agrave; partir de trois sources, notamment les indicateurs de d & eacute;veloppement dans le monde de la Banque Mondiale, le Fonds Mon & eacute;taire International (FMI) et la Notre Dame Global Adaptative Initiative (ND-GAIN). L'& eacute;tude mobilise une mod & eacute;lisation vectorielle autor & eacute;gressive structurelle en panel (PSVAR), appliqu & eacute;e & agrave; un & eacute;chantillon de 45 pays couvrant la p & eacute;riode de 2004-2023. Les r & eacute;sultats montrent qu'un degr & eacute; moyen (0,44) de R & eacute;sum & eacute;vuln & eacute;rabilit & eacute; au changement climatique provoque une fragilisation de 0,25 du syst & egrave;me financier des & eacute;conomies de l'Afrique subsaharienne, confirmant ainsi la th & eacute;orie des externalit & eacute;s financi & egrave;res. Ainsi, l'atteinte des recommandations du r & eacute;seau pour le verdissement du syst & egrave;me financier (NGFS) s'av & egrave;re impossible & agrave; long terme. La promotion des instruments verts dans les politiques de stabilisation financi & egrave;re est fortement conseill & eacute;e pour les pays de la r & eacute;gion. Recent studies support evidence that climate-related damages and risks negatively affect the performance of firms, banking institutions, and related financial entities. However, some authors highlight, on the contrary, the potential benefits of financial innovations induced by climate vulnerability on the financial stability of countries. Contributing to this debate, this research analyzes the effect of economies' vulnerability to climate change on financial stability in Sub-Saharan Africa. To this end, a database was constructed from three main sources: World Development Indicators (WDI) of the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Notre Dame Global Adaptative Initiative (ND-GAIN). The study employs a panel structural vector autoregressive model (PSVAR) applied to a sample of 45 countries covering the period 2004-2023. The results show that an average degree (0.44) of climate vulnerability leads to a 0.25 weakening of the financial system in Sub-Saharan African economies, thereby confirming the theory of financial externalities. Thus, achieving the recommendations of the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) may be unattainable in the long run. Incorporating climate risks and promoting green financial instruments within financial stability policies are therefore strongly recommended for countries in the region.
This study examines the linear and the non-linear effects of international trade taxes on access to clean cooking technologies in Sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2023. The study adopts several robust estimation strategies, including the Driscoll-Kraay cross-sectional dependence estimation, the two-step system GMM approach, and the Dynamic Panel Thresholds strategy. The findings reveal a dual effect: while international trade taxes exert a positive linear impact at moderate levels, they produce a negative non-linear effect once the tax rate surpasses a dynamic threshold of 5.039. The estimated dynamic threshold of 5.039% marks the turning point beyond which trade taxes negatively affect clean cooking access. The results are consistent across rural and urban populations, low and middle-income economies, as well as between countries with low versus high energy import dependence, with the non-linear effect most severe among high importers. Complementary factors such as internet penetration, trade openness, governance quality, and domestic credit significantly enhance access to clean cooking fuels and technologies. These results underscore the need for "smart" taxation policies that balance fiscal space generation with household affordability. Policy recommendations emphasise differentiated tariff regimes, strengthened credit markets, improved governance, and regional trade cooperation to accelerate universal clean cooking access in SSA.
Recently, there has been a resurgence of interest in the implications of emerging barriers to women entrepreneurs due to their impact on the realisation of Sustainable Development Goals. Thus, this study examines the effects of funding mechanisms on women entrepreneurs' ability to employ other women in Africa. This study employs causal mediation analysis and Bayesian model averaging on World Bank Enterprise Survey data spanning 44 countries from 2006 to 2024, to quantify the effects of internal reserves, equity stakes, and bank lending on female hiring. The empirical findings reveal that reliance on internal funds and obstacles to bank finance significantly dampen women's ability to expand female employment. These disparities reflect discriminatory lending practices, pushing many women into entrepreneurship out of necessity rather than opportunity. However, firms with substantial female ownership are more likely to promote women into leadership roles, narrowing workplace gender gaps. Hence, to mitigate these inequalities and bolster women-led job creation, this study recommends targeted interventions that include start-up grants, loan guarantees, and gender-sensitive credit policies. In addition, enhancing women entrepreneurs' access to finance can empower them to hire and advance women, closing labour gender gaps, improving leadership roles, and accelerating Africa's inclusive progress toward the SDGs.
The rise of anti-globalization forces and the escalating impacts of environmental degradation have emerged as two dominant global forces that increasingly disrupt economic prosperity. Despite growing scholarly interest in this subject, no empirical study has examined the joint implications of these two forces on productive capacity. To address this gap, this study employs the interactive generalized method of moments to investigate the interactive impact of anti-globalization dynamics and environmental degradation on the productive capacity of 52 African countries between 2005 and 2022. Anti-globalization is examined through the associated risks across the economic, political, social, and financial dimensions of globalization. These risks are quantified by estimating standard errors from first-order autoregressive AR (1) processes for each globalization indicator. The study presents the following key findings: (i) an unconditional negative impact of environmental degradation on productive capacity, and (ii) a negative synergy between the interaction of anti-globalization and environmental degradation, indicating that anti-globalization amplifies the adverse effect of environmental degradation on productive capacity. In alignment with several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, the study recommends channeling investments toward productivity-enhancing sectors with strong green potential and strengthening engagement with global climate finance mechanisms to mitigate environmental risks while protecting the region's productive base.
This research provides an empirical assessment of the contribution of regional integration to the involvement of COMESA member nations in international value chains from 1995 to 2019. Using the instrumental variables technique, we arrive at the main result that regional integration is a factor for the participation of COMESA member countries in global value chains. In addition, we also find that each dimension of regional integration (de jure and de facto trade integration, de jure and de facto economic integration and de jure and de facto financial integration) is a factor in the upstream and downstream participation of COMESA member countries in global value chains. These results provide African countries with tools to put in place a comprehensive and simplified approach that makes use of all aspects of regional integration to increase their involvement in global value chains.
