Depopulation of the Russian Arctic is a key macro-region development issue. It steams from a complex set of contradictions in the functioning of key sectors that determine the local conditions for the human capital reproduction: health care, education, culture and leisure, and working conditions. An approach is needed to systematically identify critical aspects of the sectors and specify favorable measures. The study aims to identify the optimal functioning of the considered sectors at the municipal level and compile a corresponding rating of the Arctic territories. Using the DEA analysis methodology and the results of complex economic and sociological research, the author has identified the relative optimality of health care, education, recreation, and working conditions in 32 municipalities of the European part of the Russian Arctic. Partial and general ratings of these territories have been compiled. The analytical potential of the applied methodology for identifying key problematic aspects in the development of these sectors, as well as developing measures to overcome them, is shown.
The paper presents a comparative analysis of the sedimentation rates and patterns in the basins of the Spitsbergen archipelago and the Kola Peninsula, directly affected by Atlantic waters penetrating with the Norwegian Current (Nordcap Current) and West Spitsbergen Current. Sedimentation rates on the Spitsbergen archipelago were estimated in Isfjorden Bay and its arms — Grenfjorden, Kolesbukht, Adventfjorden and Billefjorden, and on the Kola Peninsula — in Kola and Motovsky Bays, as well as on the coast of Eastern Murman — Yarnyshnaya Bay and Oscar Bay. The researchers described the pattern and rates of current sedimentation in the basins, based on which they reconstructed similar processes during the Little Ice Age (LIA). The research results showed that the sedimentation rate in the basins of the Spitsbergen archipelago underwent significant changes after the LIA, while on the Kola Peninsula these changes were less significant. The main reasons for the existing sedimentation patterns on the Spitsbergen archipelago and the Kola Peninsula are the presence or absence of glaciation in the catchment areas of the basins. The sedimentation zones most resistant to climate fluctuations in the European Arctic turned out to be river estuaries.
The article presents a methodology for estimating greenhouse gas emissions by vessels navigating in the Arctic waters, both in open water and in the ice cover. The methodology is based on the combination of AIS data and ice charts with subsequent quantitative assessment of ice cover resistance to vessel movement. The proposed methodological tools ensure high accuracy in determining the emission load, including the specifics of navigation in Arctic waters, taking into account the dynamic characteristics of the ice situation. To verify the methodology, the annual greenhouse gas volumes for the vessels of the “Novy Port” project for 2024 calculated using the developed methodology have been compared with the emission volumes calculated based on the actually consumed bunker fuel.
The article considers the possibility to recover nepheline, loparite, and apatite concentrates from the loparite ore tailings. Reverse flotation of both stored and current tailings yielded nepheline concentrates containing 27.3% and 27.7% Al2O3 with a recovery of 77.8% and 79.9%, respectively. The proposed closed-cycle flotation scheme for current tailings allowed increasing the Al2O3 recovery into concentrate by 3.8%. Improvement in concentrate quality is achieved using electromagnetic separation (28.0—28.3% Al2O3) or direct flotation in sodium silicofluoride medium (29.6% Al2O3). During the flotation of gravity tailings, a loparite concentrate was produced containing Nb2O5 with a recovery of approximately 50%. Beneficiation of stored tailings yielded an apatite product containing about 15% P2O5 with a recovery of approximately 78%. The quality of the apatite product can be improved by introducing cleaning operations.
The mouth of the Ob Bay, one of the largest river estuaries along the Arctic coast, represents a unique natural environment where fresh river water and seawater actively interact. It leads to the formation of complex physico-chemical gradients and promotes the transformation of chemical substances, including nutrients. This study is based on data from two expeditions covering the northern part of the Ob Estuary. The research focuses on interannual variability of hydrochemical parameters, including the distribution of nutrients (NO₃⁻, PO₄³⁻, Si), and dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Ob Estuary during the early autumn of 2013 and 2014. Special attention is paid to spatial distribution patterns of hydrochemical parameters and the identification of zones of absorption and release of dissolved silicon, phosphorus, and nitrate nitrogen. The most significant factors influencing interannual variability are differences in the river runoff volumes, the hydrodynamic structure of the water area, the formation and stability of frontal zones, and the intensity of biogeochemical processes.
In recent years, the application of machine learning technologies has become increasingly relevant for monitoring greenhouse gas emissions in the Arctic, where intense permafrost degradation and increasing methane emissions into the atmosphere are observed. In the study, we have developed and compared recurrent and graph neural network-based models to predict the dynamics of concentrations of major greenhouse gases in the surface air on Bely Island, the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area, Russia. The original dataset consisted of surface concentration measurements of four gases for the summer months of 2016—2017: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), carbon monoxide (CO), and water vapor (H2O). For graph forecasting, we used the Multivariate Time Series Graph Neural Network (MTGNN) model; for recurrent forecasting, we used the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Long Short-Term Memory Network (LSTNet) models. The forecast accuracy of the models was assessed using the following metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), and correlation coefficient (Corr). In general, the MTGNN model demonstrated lower error values compared to recurrent models (LSTM, LSTNet). Compared to LSTM and LSTNet, MTGNN had 25—55% lower errors. The more accurate graph model required significantly more time to train and had a significantly larger number of parameters for optimization.
The research is focused on the study of the content of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and heavy metals (HM) on Wrangel Island within the framework of the UMKA-2022 expedition. The purpose of the study is to assess the pollution level of abiotic and biotic components of the natural environment, which is important for understanding the environmental situation in the Arctic. Samples of soil, seawater and biota have been analyzed for the presence of POPs and HM using modern analytical methods. The results showed the presence of 69 pollutants of hazard classes 1-3 in all samples, with the highest concentrations in the central part of the island and off the coast of the Chukchi Sea. In the soil, exceedances of maximum permissible concentrations (MPC) have been recorded for chromium, manganese, nickel, cobalt, lead and cadmium. Exceedances of cadmium, lead and nickel have been also detected in surface water. Analysis of pollution data on the island has confirmed a significant level of anthropogenic load and degradation of ecosystems, especially in the areas of Rogers Bay, Somnitelnaya Bay and Cape Hawaii.
Based on the results of retrospective wave modeling conducted for the Barents Sea from 1981 to 2022, the authors analyzed extreme wave characteristics for the central part of the Barents Sea using the SWAN model. The spatial resolution of the SWAN model in the central part of the Barents Sea was 1 km, and 3.5 km on its periphery. An analysis of storm situations was carried out for the central part of the sea. Storms with a wind speed of more than 15 m/s, as well as periods of storm waves, in which the wave height was 2.5 m or more, were identified. It was shown that situations were possible when the development of extreme waves in one area of the central part of the sea was not accompanied by extreme waves in another. High spatial variability in wave heights was observed, associated with both storm intensity and cyclone trajectories. It was found that during the periods of the most intense cyclones, the peak value of the wave spectrum was 15.4 s, and the average period of the waves was 11,5 s, which indicated a significant contribution of swell waves to the formation of extreme waves. The distribution of storm duration values was bimodal. Storm waves corresponding to the first group lasted 55 — 67 hours and were formed during the passage of isolated cyclones. The duration of the second group was 166—169 hours and storm waves were formed during the passage of a system of two or more simultaneously occurring cyclones. It was revealed that storm waves in the water area began significantly earlier than wind speeds reached gale force (15 m/s). This suggested that the development of storm waves at relatively low wind speed might serve as a harbinger of the coming cyclone. In the area of the points under consideration, a weak positive trend in average and maximum monthly mean daily significant wave heights was observed only in the last two decades, and only between April and June. The increase in average monthly mean daily significant wave heights over the past 24 years has amounted to no more than 72 cm. However, the increase in maximum mean daily wave heights has reached almost 1 m.
The article examines theoretical and methodological approaches to the spatial organization of geo-competitive development of the Arctic fuel and energy complex in current geopolitical conditions. The authors propose an innovative method for comprehensively assessing spatial heterogeneity, taking into account the economic and geographical factors of multilateral resistance characteristic of the Arctic zone. Based on the method they have developed a new analytical trade model of the spatial organization of transregional trade in Arctic energy resources, allowing for assessing the export potential of extractive industries. The study has revealed that traditional methods for analyzing the scale effects of economic growth, which fail to account for the unique economic and geographical features of the Arctic region, can significantly distort the estimated parameters of the prospective development of the Arctic economy, which, in turn, casts doubt on the reliability of the expected results stated in the strategic plans. The developed method, on the contrary, has turned out to be resistant to trade frictions associated with the Arctic economic and geographical specifics, allowing for accurate analysis of both statistical data and empirically significant variables that influence the forecast of Arctic economic growth effects.
The Russian North and Arctic are the homeland of unique peoples who have managed to find a balance between nature and the environment, create their own unique culture, carry it through the centuries, survive the socio-economic transformations of the 20th century and once again declare themselves. It took 80 years (1926—2006) to form the List of Indigenous Peoples of the North, Siberia and the Far East of the Russian Federation so that 40 ethnic groups would receive exclusive rights to use their original habitat and engage in traditional activities. The demographic dynamics of indigenous ethnic groups is ambiguous. Along with purely demographic factors (birth rate, mortality), assimilation has a significant impact on it. It is difficult to preserve one’s identity while living in a multinational environment of larger ethnic groups. Unique information is introduced into scientific circulation— the distribution of married couples by nationality of spouses is the main factor of assimilation. According to the 2021 All-Russian Population Statistics, the share of married couples in interethnic marriage (share over 50.0%) is 74.2%. The goal is to assess the level of assimilation and its impact on the dynamics of indigenous ethnicities.
Using correlation analysis and multiple regression methods, the authors have obtained quantitative estimates of the impact of natural and climatic factors on the fire areas in the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Area from 2005 to 2024. The fire areas in the oil and gas region of the Russian Arctic have increased by 70% over the past decade, especially in the forest-tundra region, exceeding the flammability in the northern taiga and southern tundra many times over. A decrease in atmospheric moisture and an increase in the number of days without precipitation during the fire-hazardous period explain 99.5% of fire area changes in the forest-tundra of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area.
The study substantiates the possibility of using open data on hydrochemical indicators from satellite systems. It establishes a seasonal peak of eutrophication in the Barents Sea and reveals a strong correlation between the trophic level and the concentration of chlorophyll a, total phosphorus, and mineral forms of nitrogen. The limited applicability of the trophic level index (TLI) to Arctic waters and a high degree of consistency between the trophic state index (TSI) and the trophic index (E-TRIX) have been demonstrated, providing a scientific basis for their integrated use in the context of the sustainable cage aquaculture development. These findings have significant practical implications for the development of monitoring systems and environmental conservation measures in the Arctic region.
The Arctic area unites different climatic zones, diverse cultures and societies, settlements with different economic specializations. However, in recent years, the influence of global trends on the Arctic, smoothing out these differences, has become increasingly noticeable. The study covers the entire world Arctic — eight countries, 25 of their Arctic regions and 362 municipalities. For the first time, the fertility, mortality and migration rates of all Arctic territories for 2010-2024 are considered consistently at the global, country, regional and municipal levels. At the country and regional levels, we have used life expectancy, total fertility rates, and net migration growth; at the municipal level, we have used age-standardized total fertility and death rates, and average annual net migration growth. Cartographic methods have made it possible to identify spatial patterns of natural and migratory population movement. The study showed that in 2010-2024, under the influence of global demographic trends, there was a convergence of Arctic territories in terms of natural population movement. By the end of the first quarter of the 21st century, the fertility rate differs significantly, primarily in the areas where indigenous peoples live, and the mortality rate differed significantly between most Russian territories. Human migration patterns are determined primarily by the quality of life of the population and the logic of the development of the extractive industry.
The paper presents the results of processing special shipboard observations of the ice cover in the Arctic basin, carried out along the route from the Franz Josef Land archipelago to the North Pole in the summer of 2024. The latitudinal distribution of ice concentration along the route of the nuclear icebreaker “50 Let Pobedy” to the North Pole is presented. The results of assessing the thickness and age composition of level ice (beyond hummocky formations) are obtained based on visual observations and using a ship TV complex.
The issue of forming a balanced settlement system and the territorial organization of the economy of the Russian Federation is becoming particularly relevant in the context of the Arctic territories, which are of great geopolitical importance. Territorial branding is becoming one of the mechanisms for solving this problem. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the role of branding in the socio-economic development of the Arctic territories. The paper analyzes regional brands, provides examples of local brands, examines search query statistics, evaluates the success of regional brands in various industries and fields, concludes that brands have a differentiated impact on the development of territories, and provides a quantitative assessment of the value and potency of brands in the Arctic regions of the Russian Federation. The influence of branding on regional development indicators is confirmed by the results of statistical analysis. The research materials can be used in the development and implementation of strategies for promoting the Arctic regions, aimed at their development and improving the quality of life for the local population.
Using the Lagrangian-Eulerian model of ocean-sea ice dynamics and the transfer of Lagrangian particles, the spread of radionuclides in the waters of the Gulf of Ob and the Kara Sea is predicted. Rapid, within ~2-7 days, transfer of radionuclides by the atmosphere from the source near the port of Sabetta and their deposition on the water area surface is assumed. Scenarios of a radiation accident in summer and winter seasons are considered, with various positions of the accident site and atmospheric transfer. Based on the results of the study, it might be concluded that sea ice significantly affects the transfer of radionuclides in the Arctic seas. Radionuclides might stay preserved in sea ice for a year and more, thereby preserving the memory of past radiation accidents. Once in sea water, radionuclides drop down towards bottom, and in the case of shallow waters, they reach the bottom layer after several months and stay at the bottom layer. However, once frozen into sea ice, radionuclides can travel over significant distances during several years.
For the first time, a large volume of first-arrival records in common shot gathers was processed and comprehensively analyzed for an area of 620 thousand sq km in the Kara Sea, from 74 CDP seismic lines of JSC MAGE with a total length of approximately 11.5 thousand km. It was demonstrated that, in the best-studied South Kara Basin, the degradation of subsea relic permafrost (frozen ground) mainly has finished. However, permafrost with different levels of ice cementing has remained in 174 isolated patches. These data are consistent with previous findings by JSC AMIGE specialists based on drilling engineering-geological wells. For the insufficiently studied North Kara Basin, fundamentally new information was obtained on the complete absence of relic permafrost, which is radically different from all other research results, primarily based on mathematical modeling. A hypothesis has been proposed about possible reasons for the preservation of permafrost isolated patches in the South Kara Basin.
The development of the creative economy in the Arctic regions of the Russian Federation represents a unique opportunity for economic growth, environmental sustainability and cultural heritage preservation in the context of Industry 6.0. The study examines strategies for integrating digital technologies, ecosophical principles, and traditional knowledge of indigenous peoples to ensure the sustainable development of the Arctic. A co-evolutionary model is proposed, emphasizing creative tourism, digitalizing folk crafts and the media industry as key drivers of economic diversification while minimizing anthropogenic impact. The research methodology includes qualitative and quantitative methods, including the analysis of successful creative practices in the Arctic and the assessment of socio-economic indicators of the regions. The results demonstrate the creatosphere potential in creating added value through innovation, preserving cultural heritage and strengthening social cohesion. The priority areas are ethnotourism, digital art and eco-design, which require the development of infrastructure and institutional support. Among key challenges are technological constraints, environmental risks, and socio-economic inequalities that determine the need for adaptive policy decisions. The study highlights the importance of a human-centered approach, digital literacy and international integration to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Recommendations include the formation of creative clusters, stimulation of green start-ups, and the use of digital platforms to promote Arctic cultural assets. The contribution of the study is to justify the transformation of regional challenges into opportunities for inclusive growth through creative industries that correspond to global trends in the digital and green economies.
Climate change that occurs faster in the Arctic, leads to the loss of permafrost bearing capacity and, subsequently, to the destruction of buildings and structures. Traditional thermal stabilization methods, such as pile basements and thermosiphons, often become insufficiently effective in the Arctic. The paper proposes the use of surface basements with integrated heat pumps powered by renewable energy sources (RES). There are already buildings being destructed due to degradation of permafrost soils in the village of Saskylakh (Yakutia). The authors prove that the presented technology is capable of reducing construction costs by 45% (compared to pile basements) and providing guaranteed soil thermal stabilization. At the same time, the RES introduction in the considered isolated settlement will solve the problem of high electricity tariffs and reduce the dependence on expensive diesel fuel. The maximum economic effect is achieved in the case of the RES implementation by involving the population in microgeneration — a potential reduction from 59.84 to 39.7 RUB/kW∙h is shown. An integrated approach, including the RES introduction, heat recovery, electricity and heat load management, is capable of significantly reducing the total costs of heat and electricity supply in remote settlements.
The stored waste of coal power facilities has a negative impact on the components of the environment. The article presents the results of the study of the composition and properties of the ash and slag mixture of the Apatity TPP, Murmansk Region. Samples of coal combustion waste were collected and studied. Engineering and geological characteristics and granulometric composition of the samples were determined. X-ray phase analysis of the samples was carried out. The chemical composition of the waste was determined. The results of the study indicate the likelihood of dust formation on the surface of the ash and slag dump during the snowless season. The established content of rare earth elements suggests the possibility of considering the accumulated waste as a technogenic raw material for the subsequent extraction of valuable components.
