Assessing climate adaptation effectiveness remains a central yet unresolved challenge in global climate governance. Existing adaptation approaches largely prioritize standardized, top-down quantitative metrics and often overlook the cultural, relational, and place-based dimensions central to people directly affected by climate risks and foundational to community resilience. In this study, we examine how smallholder farmers in the flood-prone Ouémé Valley of Benin conceptualize and assess adaptation success in everyday practices. Drawing on in-depth interviews with 83 farmers, complemented by participatory group discussions and framing analysis, we demonstrate that externally driven metrics are a useful first step but fail to capture local experiences and values that also count for adaptation tracking at the local level. Farmers facing compounding hazards understand adaptation primarily as a process of spreading and managing risks, as most adaptation actions address more than one hazard. As a result, individual-level assessments of adaptation effectiveness can capture only one side of the landscape and remain incomplete because farmers face multiple, co-occurring risks. Farmers assess adaptation effectiveness across six interrelated framing dimensions: livelihood continuity, processual adaptability, loss management and acceptance of limits, social legitimacy, cultural and spiritual alignment, and psychological well-being. Our findings suggest that integrating local perspectives can enhance the relevance and equity of adaptation assessments, informing policies that better reflect the complex realities of flood-prone farming systems.
Coastal regions worldwide face growing flood risks from climate change. As the dominant coastal ecosystem in (sub)tropical zones, mangroves serve as natural buffers, mitigating wave action and reducing flood hazards. However, field evidence of their efficacy during extreme storm events remains scarce, limiting accurate estimation of their protective capacity. Here, we present unique measurements of storm waves (significant wave height up to 0.88 m) and their substantial attenuation (59%) within a mangrove forest, providing critical evidence that mangroves sustain significant wave attenuation capacity under extreme conditions. Utilizing this dataset, we demonstrate that a new predictive method outperforms traditional approaches in predicting wave evolution across mangroves. We have translated this advance into a user-friendly web application, enabling non-specialists to predict storm wave attenuation using available fair-weather field data. These findings confirm mangroves as essential nature-based protection against climate-intensified storm waves and provide a practical tool to advise on this protection.
Traditional climate risk assessments often struggle to capture the complex hazard interdependencies, cascading effects, and non-linear dynamics that characterise multi-risk events and context-specific risk propagation. This study addresses these gaps by applying participatory climate risk storylines in the Veneto Region of Italy. Using a mixed-methods approach that combines quantitative modelling with qualitative insights, the assessment explores multi-hazard dynamics, cascading impacts, and cross-sectoral consequences of the 2018 Vaia storm and develops a plausible future storm scenario under projected climate change conditions.The study contributes to the growing literature on climate storylines by operationalising a structured framework that integrates quantitative multi-hazard assessments, climate projections, literature review, and iterative stakeholder-informed validation. The findings show that storylines grounded in a participatory approach proved useful in promoting cross-sectoral dialogue and supporting more holistic and forward-looking disaster risk management. However, it also revealed certain limitations, including challenges in systematically incorporating quantitative socio-economic projections and the relatively limited participation of some sectoral stakeholders, which could be further strengthened in future applications. These findings highlight the importance of early and continuous stakeholder involvement to strengthen ownership and improve the robustness of risk assessments.
Extreme heat is among the leading causes of weather-related mortality in the United States, and a growing share of heat-related deaths occur indoors in homes without adequate or functioning cooling. Renters face distinctive constraints: they typically cannot modify the building envelope, install permanent cooling equipment, or undertake structural retrofits, and energy-insecure renters often ration cooling to manage costs. Yet renters are not consistently recognized as a priority group in local heat policy. This study asks to what extent U.S. local Heat Action Plans include specific, actionable, and accountable protections for renters facing indoor heat risk. We conducted a manual, desk-based policy audit of 15 publicly available local Heat Action Plans and functionally equivalent heat-governance documents issued by U.S. cities and counties between 2017 and 2026. Each plan was coded against a 26-field structured instrument and scored on two metrics introduced here for the first time: the Indoor Renter Protection Subscore (IRPS), a five-item measure of renter-specific and indoor-heat protection, and the broader Renter Heat Protection Score (RHPS), a ten-item index of combined heat-response and renter-protection readiness. Both score written commitments and are not measures of implementation or health outcomes. Across the sample, the mean IRPS was 1.73 of 5 (SD 1.49, median 1, range 0 to 5) and the mean RHPS was 6.40 of 10 (SD 1.68, median 6, range 5 to 10). All plans named cooling-center access, utility or energy assistance, and responsible agencies or timelines, but only 4 of 15 explicitly identified renters as a heat-vulnerable group, only 2 of 15 referenced an indoor temperature or cooling standard for rental housing, and only 2 of 15 referenced tenant protection or cooling rights. Within the audited sample, Phoenix and Los Angeles County were the only jurisdictions to combine such a standard with enforcement authority: Phoenix uses a performance-based cooling requirement expressed as maximum indoor temperatures for units where cooling is installed, and Los Angeles County has adopted a maximum indoor-temperature ordinance for covered rental units in unincorporated Los Angeles County. Neither guarantees a given indoor temperature under every extreme event. A 0 to 3 policy-intensity recode of the renter-specific items correlated strongly with the binary IRPS ranking (Spearman's ρ = 0.93, p < 0.001). U.S. local heat policy has matured in emergency cooling, utility assistance, and communication, but has not consistently extended that architecture into enforceable indoor protection for renters. We frame this as a climate-risk governance gap at the point where exposure becomes preventable harm, and offer the IRPS and RHPS as transferable instruments for future policy evaluation.
The energy sector must increasingly prepare for a variety of risks and threats, in particular geopolitical and climate-related ones. The latter, such as extreme weather events, are perceived as dangers to societies worldwide, fuelling climate change mitigation and adaptation in pursuit of safer living conditions. Finland, a small and technologically advanced country in Northern Europe, has a relatively ambitious climate policy that is closely linked to the energy sector's transition towards sustainable production and consumption. The sector's preparedness for climate-related risks is therefore fundamental. The paper discusses threats and risks on three scales: system, institutional and company. Using key policy documents and stakeholder interviews, we analyse how policymakers and energy sector actors perceive climate-related risks and threats in Finland, and how they assess current preparedness. The empirical findings are mirrored with previous literature to identify gaps and omissions. We find that expert actors recognise visible and familiar risks—such as storms and floods—and consider their preparedness as good, while identifying several areas for improvement. Slowly emerging changes, such as warming and shifting precipitation, and indirect impacts are more difficult to assess and prepare for. Centralised governance was recognised as a key factor in improving preparedness. The data also highlight the political nature of risks and threats, as well as opportunities to prepare for them.
River pollution has become a pressing global concern, affecting ecosystems, human health, and long-term water security. The challenge is further intensified by climate change, which alters rainfall patterns, raises temperatures, and increases the frequency of floods and droughts, all of which worsen water quality. This review critically examines the role of mathematical, statistical, and artificial intelligence (AI) models in understanding and predicting river pollution. Mathematical models describe the physical transport of pollutants, statistical tools provide insights into trends and forecasts, and AI methods uncover hidden patterns in complex datasets. Despite these advances, current approaches often overlook climate-driven factors, limiting their ability to address future risks. We highlight the need for integrated modelling frameworks that combine traditional methods with modern data-driven techniques to strengthen climate resilience. By identifying research gaps and proposing future directions, this study contributes to advancing sustainable water management in line with global priorities such as Clean Water and Sanitation (SDG 6) and Climate Action (SDG 13).
With changing climate, cities around the world increasingly face the challenge of pluvial flooding caused by extreme precipitation. In response, many innovative concepts have been introduced to holistically manage stormwater, addressing increasing flooding risk in urban areas. This development is reflected in a substantial and growing body of literature dedicated to urban stormwater management and resilience enhancement. This study aims to conduct a bibliometric analysis of this development, shedding light on the progress, status, and characteristics of relevant research fields. In this study, we compiled and examined the literature on major innovative concepts for urban stormwater management. We mapped research progress across diverse metrics on selected study concepts, offering insights into these management approaches both individually and collectively. Our findings show that existing concepts are characterized by: 1) distinct origins, development trajectories and primary focuses while sharing the goal of improving urban stormwater management; 2) a spectrum ranging from localized, technical stormwater control and integrated urban water cycle management to broader ecosystem-based and climate adaptation strategies, allowing cross-learning and adaptation; 3) a clear evolution from earlier, more established concepts toward newer, rapidly growing approaches emphasizing nature and ecosystem services as key solution elements; 4) interconnection while exhibiting individual uniqueness, each with a unique combination of shared and exclusive attributes; and 5) geographical concentration in their originating countries, with significant opportunity for expansion to many flood-prone developing regions. Synthesizing these findings, we argue that these concepts function most effectively not as competing alternatives but as complementary elements within hybrid grey-green-blue systems that connect hydrological performance with biodiversity and climate adaptation across scales. This study fills a knowledge gap in scientific literature while offering important insights for both research and practice.
The role of social protection in safeguarding households and individuals from poverty and vulnerability has gained renewed interest with climate impacts. Research increasingly explores how social protection can minimise exposure to climate risk, smooth consumption during disasters, and support livelihood recovery. Yet the voices of affected populations remain largely absent from policy and practice. Using mixed methods and a multi-site case study approach, we assess the adequacy and effectiveness of social assistance delivered during and after two cyclone displacements (Dineo and Idai) in two districts of Zimbabwe, grounded in the voices of climate-displaced populations and key informants. We find that although social assistance expanded in coverage, it lacked anticipatory support to prepare communities, with generational differences in views on targeting and recovery. Programs were widely seen as inadequate for promoting long-term self-sufficiency, particularly among low-income smaller households, with support duration too short to sustain recovery. Qualitative insights showed that perceptions of effectiveness extended beyond income, shaped by social experiences of respect and dignity. IDPs prioritised livelihood diversification and skills training over short-term assistance but faced significant infrastructure constraints in pursuing livelihoods. Drawing on this evidence, we conclude that social assistance for IDPs remains reactive and inadequate, requiring a shift towards anticipatory, livelihoods-oriented support for building climate resilience and recovery with dignity. Long-term, resilience-oriented interventions, including investments in reskilling and training, are essential to strengthen outcomes in climate-affected contexts. Social assistance systems would benefit from using beneficiary feedback, examining how existing programs address their evolving needs under a changing climate.
Ecosystem-based Disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR) is a critical Nature-based Solution (NbS) for mitigating risk and enhancing human well-being, whose long-term success hinges on adaptive governance and social-ecological resilience rather than ecological techniques alone. However, it often faces significant governance barriers, shifting focus from purely ecological interventions to complex human–environment interactions for risk governance. This case study of the Caota Sand Dunes in Taiwan employed participant observations and in-depth interviews to understand how citizen science contributes to building social-ecological resilience that supports coastal Eco-DRR. Cultural services act as mediators that enhance public awareness and appreciation of ecosystem-regulating services while fostering a sense of place. This mechanism generates sustained public engagement and citizen agency for long-term social-ecological system resilience. Different citizen science participation types play complementary roles: contributory efforts build environmental literacy, while collaborative efforts deepen understanding of dynamics. This study identified a coalescence typology, where scientific knowledge is merged with citizen-driven local knowledge, co-producing risk knowledge and deepening disaster risk awareness. Citizen science provides a collaborative platform that aligns public perception of environmental risk with the social mechanisms for social-ecological resilience. It supports the stewardship of coastal landscapes and ecosystems while offering opportunities to strengthen community well-being. This process activates polycentric governance and strengthens the connections between people and the dynamic environment under climate uncertainty. To ensure the sustainability of Eco-DRR pathways, future NbS should enhance the role of citizen scientists and integrate their insights into formal policy-planning processes.
Supporting climate adaptation efforts in agriculture is an urgent issue requiring practical pathways to integrate climate risk into plans for action. Although prior research extensively covers various aspects of climate adaptation, two key gaps remain: (1) the limited use of multi-decadal climate projections to support long-term climate adaptation and resilience, and (2) the under-examined role of intermediaries in integrating climate projections into farm business planning. We address these gaps by identifying how engaging farmers with long-term climate risks through farm business planning processes can improve outcomes for on-farm climate adaptation and climate resilience. In a case study based in Queensland, Australia, we engage with intermediaries delivering business planning to farmers for climate resilience. Using a co-development methodology, two workshops were organised, with the help of the Queensland Department of Primary Industries and local partners to demonstrate how farm business plans can support improved adaptation to future climate risks. We set out an engagement framework that, with appropriate contextual adaptation, has potential applicability beyond agricultural settings to other sectors engaged in resilience planning. A key finding from this case study is that the institutionalisation of long-term climate risk planning programs within existing governance structures can enable broader adoption and scalability. Furthermore, planning for long-term climate risk needs to become part of the regular cadence of business planning, regularly revisited and adapted to ensure plans to address climate risks are monitored and updated.
The Australia–Tuvalu Falepili Union—the world's first treaty establishing climate change as grounds for permanent cross-border migration—is widely acknowledged as a humanitarian breakthrough. This article argues that the Falepili Union is better understood as a “necessary paradox”: a policy that manages symptoms while exposing the inadequacy of existing legal frameworks for climate displacement. Through qualitative legal-policy analysis of the treaty's mobility provisions, sovereignty guarantees, and security clauses, I show that its very success reveals the limitations of the current international architecture. The initial allocation of 280 visas per programme year cannot accommodate the more than 3000 Tuvaluans who applied within days. The random ballot excludes the most vulnerable—the elderly, disabled, and medically frail—while security provisions subordinate climate mobility to Australia's geopolitical strategy. Drawing on UN Human Rights Committee decisions and World Bank displacement projections, I argue that the Falepili Union demonstrates both the potential and the limits of bilateral climate mobility arrangements. Its legacy is to reveal the urgent need for systemic reforms: multilateral governance, mandatory adaptation finance, legal protection for climate-displaced persons, and governance co-produced with affected communities. For climate risk governance, the lesson is that managed migration without fundamental mitigation is not adaptation but triage.
There is growing concern about the distributional implications of climate change impacts. However, few studies have addressed the distributional impacts of specific natural hazard risks and adaptation measures. This study investigates the distributional impacts of riverine flood risk and how flood insurance can be organized to ensure equal access to damage compensation. We apply a partial equilibrium model of the flood insurance sector to systematically compare several insurance systems in terms of their impacts on household finances, using Austria as a case study. The comparison considers a private, a public, and a public–private flood insurance system, as well as the effect of an improvement in flood protection infrastructure. Using high-definition data on household income, we assess the extent to which income is a barrier to uptake of insurance and disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures and how such barriers may be reduced by changes in insurance or flood protection policy. We find that flood impacts on household finances are relatively more severe for lower-income groups. Investments in public flood protection infrastructure have short-term benefits in reducing flood damages and preserving the affordability of flood insurance premiums, but in the long term, these benefits are largely offset due to climate change. A more effective adaptation measure to reduce inequality in flood impacts is to instate mandatory flood insurance in combination with a degree of risk-sharing. This measure ensures that all households have access to damage compensation after a flood. A limited degree of risk-based insurance pricing is beneficial to stimulate risk-conscious decision-making by policyholders, for example regarding DRR investments.
Coastal flood insurance is increasingly challenged by the combined effects of climate change, socioeconomic development and land subsidence. Yet how these compound risks may affect future insurance affordability remains poorly understood at fine spatial scales. Here, we assess scenario-based coastal flood insurance premiums and affordability across China's coastal counties under SSP2-RCP4.5 and SSP5-RCP8.5 for 2030, 2050, and 2080. We combine probabilistic coastal flood hazard maps, sea-level rise projections, land subsidence, existing protection standards, gridded socioeconomic projections, and fixed-asset exposure estimates. Annual average losses are converted into loaded insurance premiums, and affordability is measured as the ratio of per-capita premium to estimated per-capita disposable income. Our results show that future losses increase more rapidly than inundated area, reflecting the combined effects of changing flood hazards and SSP-based socioeconomic development on exposed asset values. Under SSP5-RCP8.5, national annual average losses rise from USD 1.7 billion in 2030 to USD 7.5 billion in 2080 under the median sea-level-rise case without land subsidence. Land subsidence further amplifies losses and premiums, especially in economically developed coastal areas. Multiple counties experience persistent increases in premium-to-income burdens from 2030 to 2080, with the strongest affordability pressure under high-end sea-level rise and subsidence. Scenario analysis shows that premiums depend strongly on protection standards, premium loading and payout design. These findings highlight the need to coordinate insurance design with adaptive protection, subsidence management and coastal development policy.
As extreme heat events are becoming more frequent, wireless emergency alerts (WEAs) have emerged as an important tool for communicating heat-related health risks. While previous studies have assessed whether such alerts are effective in reducing mortality or morbidity, less is known about their influence on behavioral responses. Using Seoul as a case study, this study examines whether district-level hourly floating population patterns change before and after heat WEAs are issued. We use a spatial Difference-in-Differences (DiD) framework comparing districts that did and did not receive heat alerts, and then extend the analysis to a triple DiD model that introduces a third vulnerability-related variable to compare the heterogeneous effects of WEAs. Results show that WEAs are associated with shifts in floating population after alerts, but effects vary across socioeconomic and spatial contexts. Districts with larger proportions of sensitive population, such as older adults, youth, and people with disabilities, show no significant changes in movement, suggesting barriers to protective actions even when alerts are received. In contrast, district with greater adaptive capacity, proxied by green area, cooling shelters, and emergency services, exhibit statistically significant post-alert movement responses. These finding indicate that the effectiveness of information-based warning systems depend on broader structural and social conditions, and that embedding these alert plans with comprehensive adaptation strategies is important.
Farmers' participation in agricultural industrial organizations (AIO) is an effective post-disaster management strategy; however, existing research has yet to fully reveal the relationship between disaster shocks and farmers' adoption of this strategy. This paper uses micro-level survey data from 1,188 rural households across Gansu, Shaanxi, and Shanxi provinces in China to examine the impact of disaster shocks on farmers' participation in agricultural industrial organizations and the underlying mechanisms involved. The findings indicate that: (1) Disaster shocks significantly drive farmers’ decisions to participate in AIOs and increase their level of participation. (2) Credit constraints, labor allocation, and sales stability are key pathways through which disaster shocks influence farmers' organizational participation. (3) Under the same level of disaster shock, farmers are more inclined to join agricultural cooperatives, although among those who participate, engagement with leading enterprises is higher. Based on these findings, this study recommends promoting the diversified development of AIOs to enhance the effectiveness of post-disaster risk management. Additionally, AIOs should be encouraged to play a supportive role in areas where government functions are limited.
Introduction: Madagascar is among the most vulnerable countries in Africa to climate-related hazards, exposed to an average of 3–4 cyclones yearly with serious damage and exacerbation of existing socio-economic vulnerabilities. This review explores how community members were involved and supported in responding to cyclones in Madagascar.Methods: This is a scoping review of published and grey literature specific to cyclone and related crisis-response in Madagascar. Searches were conducted in standard publications databases (PubMed, Scopus, Google Scholar), agency websites and through professional contacts. Resulting documents were screened for information on interventions involving communities in cyclone response.Results: Evidence of the nature of engagement of communities in cyclone response remains sparse but falls into two categories: immediate response to cyclones' effects on health and livelihoods; and longer-term response to the effects of cyclones on food production, general health (including infectious diseases) and environment including ecosystem and water resources. In immediate emergency-response phase, most activities focus on informing affected people, but partnership and coordination emerge as key to ensuring that local, regional and international efforts are streamlined and community level response committees receive coordinated support. In longer-term actions, building food and livelihoods systems resilient to cyclones, is key. Although communities develop coping strategies, their poverty and vulnerability mean that they need significant external support to build resilience. Embedded NGOs provide the best evidence of more collaborative involvement of communities, but information is lacking on how stakeholders and communities interact, work together or are empowered to take ownership of interventions for their resilience during cyclone.Conclusion: While coordinated partnerships are effective during acute crises, strengthening long-term, community-led engagement before, during, and after cyclones is essential for building resilience in a context of recurrent climate shocks. Long-term interventions including funding of embedded NGOs must be priorities and integrated into national plans for disaster management which must also enable meaningful involvement of communities in a continuous preparedness process.
Timely warning of political instability under intensifying climate variability is increasingly important. This study examines how short-term environmental anomalies influence national political stability and introduces an operational, near-real-time monitoring platform. Using 37+ years of monthly environmental and event data from 140+ countries, fixed-effects panel models (PLM), generalized logistic regression (GLR) and random forest (RF) approaches provide convergent evidence that warmer temperatures and lower precipitation are associated with increased political instability, including irregular leadership changes. However, these effects are highly heterogeneous and conditioned by structural vulnerability. While average climate effects are modest, they increase substantially in countries characterized by high infant mortality, high population growth, and low GDP. PLM results reveal that a one standard deviation decrease in precipitation corresponds to a 2.8% increase in a country's global share of violent conflict on average, and over 8% for the most vulnerable countries. RF models identify precipitation, soil moisture, temperature, and population growth as important predictors (out-of-sample R2 = 0.77), while GLR results indicate that temperature or drought can increase irregular leadership change risk by 2–10% in vulnerable settings (AUC = 0.71). These findings support a threat multiplier interpretation in which climate variability amplifies pre-existing risk, influencing the timing and intensity of instability. Climate variables do not substantially improve overall discrimination for rare events but help identify periods when structural vulnerabilities are more likely to translate into realized instability. The VORTEX early-warning platform operationalizes this framework by integrating structural baseline risk with near-real-time environmental anomalies to support targeted monitoring and early warning.
Integration of Earth science data, particularly Earth Observation data (EO) within the humanitarian sector can be beneficial, yet also can enhance certain risks. Common approaches to assess the value of EO typically involve analyses of the extent to which value, usually economic, increases when EO is introduced. However, the assignment of value to data must not be oversimplified, particularly within the humanitarian sector whereby economic and non-economic value should be considered. Appropriate assignment of value to EO will lead to clearer identification of opportunities for integration, as well as potential risks. Here we describe how significant investment, including normalizing new ways of working, from both scientists and decision makers is needed to ensure an understanding of EO benefits and risks. We highlight key principles to improve scientist and decision maker engagement. Through a case study in Ecuador, we examine how the value of EO arises through its contribution to decision making in support of extreme hydrometeorological event forecasting, early warning and anticipatory action. We find that value of EO is enhanced when scientists develop and disseminate data with direct consideration of specific elements within humanitarian decision making, such as those related to uncertainty, timescales, thresholds and organizational mandates. We demonstrate that in humanitarian contexts structured channels of accountability related to integration and use of EO will improve ethical considerations, enhance the quality of the development of EO-driven applied science, improving Earth observing satellite mission performance and leading to more tailored applications of EO data.
This paper presents a novel assessment of future climate change impacts on flushing events in the River Almond catchment, spanning the projected period 2050–2080. For the first time, risks are simultaneously considered across multiple pollution pathways, including pesticide pollution, combined sewer overflows (CSOs), increased river flows enhancing water quality, and catchment runoff. Two high-resolution climate models are employed: the convection-permitting UKCP18 and the regional Euro-CORDEX-UK ensemble. Climate change driven by anthropogenic global warming is anticipated to significantly alter hydrological regimes, which in turn influence the mobilisation, transport, and fate of a wide range of pollutants. These contaminants, ranging from heavy metals, nutrients, and pathogens to emerging pollutants such as pharmaceuticals and endocrine, disrupting chemicals, often interact as complex mixtures or ‘pollutant cocktails’.Results indicate a clear intensification and spatial concentration of flushing events, particularly downstream at the catchment outlet, where urbanisation, impervious surfaces, and flow accumulation converge to amplify vulnerability. Upstream areas also exhibit substantial relative changes, despite smaller absolute magnitudes, underscoring the importance of localised responses. The spatial coherence of change along the river network (from headwaters to outlet) highlights the interplay between land use, hydrology, and climate forcing. Targeted interventions in the upstream catchment, including CSO upgrades and enhanced riparian buffers, could deliver downstream water quality benefits. The divergence between climate model ensembles requires robust, uncertainty-aware management, with UKCP18 serving as a precautionary upper-bound scenario. Without intervention, the catchment faces dual climate threats: intensified pollutant mobilisation during more frequent, localised storms and reduced dilution potential during low-flow periods.
