Many theories suggest envisioning a desirable future motivates individual and collective action, but it is unclear how media can best be used to foster visions of positive environmental futures. Furthermore, media about climate change often depict negative futures with dire consequences. Although portrayals of sustainable futures in which humanity has succeeded in climate adaptation and mitigation may give some audiences a goal to work towards, this same content risks evoking resistance if other audiences find these optimistic scenarios unfamiliar or unappealing. Narratives are one promising avenue for reducing such resistance. Using an online experiment (N = 1,185 U.S. participants) following a 2 (message format: narrative vs. non-narrative) × 2 (message frame: positive future vs. negative future) + control design, we examine how climate future messages impact activism and advocacy intentions via transportation, constructive hope, imagination, and counterarguing. Results indicate that positive future messaging invited more counterarguing than negative future messaging, but using a narrative structure neutralized this difference. Exploratory analyses indicated a subsequent positive indirect effect on advocacy intentions. Findings offer theoretical implications for work on climate visions, cognitive alternatives, and future thinking, as well as practical implications for climate communicators, educators, and activists.
Understanding the associations between climate change and agricultural productivity is crucial for developing strategies to safeguard food security. This study examines the long-term relationships between temperature and precipitation variability and the total factor productivity (TFP) of wheat, rice, soybean, and maize in China, using provincial data from 1978 to 2018. We employ a three-stage analytical approach: first, constructing productivity frontier via Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA); second, decomposing TFP growth into technological advancement, weather-related frontier shifts, input adjustments, and efficiency changes; and third, utilizing panel regressions to identify nonlinear, crop-specific associations with climate variables. Our decomposition findings indicate that climate change is negatively associated with TFP growth, accounting for declines of 4.8
Global warming increases the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation, altering precipitation patterns. The Three River Headwaters (TRH) region, as the source of major rivers in China, is highly sensitive to these changes. Understanding future shifts in precipitation concentration and structure is crucial for ecosystem and water resource management. However, research has overlooked detailed analysis of future temporal precipitation patterns. This study applies downscaling and bias correction to precipitation data from phase 3b of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b), assigning weights based on model performance. The precipitation concentration index (PCI), degree (PCD), and period (PCP), along with precipitation structure, are analyzed under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Results show: (1) The outputs of corrected ISIMIP3b climate models better represent precipitation concentration and structure in TRH, with PCI, PCD, and PCP showing negative anomalies, indicating more uniform precipitation distribution at both monthly and daily scales and earlier peaks. (2) Under SSP370 and SSP585, precipitation probability density shifts to higher levels, reducing dry days and increasing extreme events. Under SSP585, compared to the baseline, the number of extremely heavy rainfall days, total amount, and proportion increase by 114.0
As climate change intensifies heatwave frequency, duration, and severity, robust risk assessments are urgently needed to inform adaptation and emergency response planning. Such efforts are vital to safeguard future generations by preventing avoidable fatalities and reducing health burdens. This study investigates the evolving heatwave risk to Southeast Australia under a warming climate, a region experiencing a growing heatwave threat. To explore this phenomenon, we developed the Combined Heatwave Risk Index (CHRI), which integrates exposure, vulnerability, and hazard components. The CHRI addresses challenges in composite indicators, particularly the tendency to disproportionately emphasise high-population areas due to Australia’s skewed population distribution (exposure). Instead, the CHRI uses a weighted approach to balance factors, improving applicability across regions. Heatwave vulnerability incorporated demographic, socioeconomic, and health data from the 2021 Australian Census, and the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a proxy for environmental vulnerability. Heatwave hazard, defined as a function of frequency and intensity, was assessed using the Excess Heat Factor (EHF). Current and future heatwave risk was calculated using CMIP6 downscaled projections from the New South Wales regional climate modelling project (NARCLiM2.0) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios. Results show exposure is highest in coastal metropolitan areas, while vulnerability is more concentrated inland due to ageing populations, poorer health, and reduced vegetation. Hazard intensity is projected to increase substantially in inland New South Wales and Queensland. The CHRI therefore offers a flexible, stakeholder-relevant tool for governments, emergency services, and planners to support more equitable and targeted heatwave preparedness as climate extremes intensify, aligning with Sustainable Development Goal 13: Climate Action.
This essay discusses how ontological security – “security of being” – is a relevant concept in social science and humanities research on climate-induced, non-economic losses and damages. Building on scholarly literature on ontological security and drawing inspiration from my experiences of international studies on climate change-related challenges and responses, I seek to outline how an ontological security lens can provide important insights into sense-making of climate-induced impacts and responses. The essay discusses recurrent criticisms of the concept and argues for methodological approaches that pay attention to people’s narratives and sense-making processes. The essay argues that a relational understanding of ontological security and attention to people’s narratives could help unpack the meanings of climate-induced, intangible harms in everyday life. This could help bring cultural aspects of climate change to the fore, and shed light on identity, biographical continuity, place, and space as central dimensions of intangible losses and damages. This is important to deepen research as well as state and non-state actors’ discussions on climate-related losses and damages, and adaptation policy and measures.
The accumulated degree-day model, forensic entomology’s standard tool for estimating a post-mortem interval, has no upper temperature bound: above the developmental threshold it accumulates without limit, while real flies stop developing at a ceiling. As European summers warm, that ceiling is crossed more often. Using published thermal parameters, the recorded temperatures of twelve European cities from 2010 to 2020, and climate-model projections, this study simulated development hourly and on daily means under three models: the standard linear model, a nonlinear curve, and a step model that adds the observed ceiling to the linear one. An upper thermal limit could be grounded in an observation for ten of eleven forensically relevant fly species; eight occur in Europe and form the primary set. On daily means, the conventional degree-day resolution, the linear model appears to perform better during heatwaves; integrated hourly, on the same windows, the standardised effect size reverses from +0.15 to −0.29. Divergence was exactly zero wherever the ceiling was never crossed. Where it was crossed, the linear estimate ran short by up to twenty days, and in 0.20
Climate destabilization threatens agricultural production. Using strawberries as a test case, which are particularly susceptible to climate change, this study investigates the use of agrivoltaics as a path to a climate resilient food system in both current (2025) and future (2050) climates. Strawberry production is examined within agrivoltaic systems composed of different types (thin film and silicon cell-based) of solar photovoltaic (PV) modules with varied transparencies. Shading and photosynthetically active radiation influenced the relationships between environmental factors, growth performance, and physiological responses. Climate change and agrivoltaic interventions influenced critical processes, such as photosynthesis, transpiration, stomatal conductance, and intercellular CO2 concentration. These factors also effected crop phenotypic measures including height, leaf count, chlorophyll and berry yield. High transparency PV modules with non-uniform spectral transmission under the 2050 scenario demonstrate increases in biomass production, highlighting the potential benefits of using agrivoltaics to offset future atmospheric changes.
Today, it is seen that fires are increasing in urban centers. Several factors contribute to the increase in fires. However, the role of climate change in this issue is ignored. Climate change can increase the risk of fire by causing surface temperature (LST). This study evaluated the relationship between LST and fire risk in two neighborhoods in Elazığ city center with different land use classes, different topography, and different population densities between 2014 and 2024. Landsat 8 and Landsat 9 satellite data were used and analyzed with ArcGIS 10.7.1 software. Despite being located adjacent to each other, the average LST values of the Yeni Neighborhood were between 1.7 and 3.6 °C higher than those of the Üniversite Neighborhood due to the population density, lack of green space, abundance of residential, impervious, and open/bare areas in these years. Although the area of Üniversite Neighborhood is more than three times that of Yeni Neighborhood, the number of fires in Yeni Neighborhood is more than twice that in Üniversite Neighborhood. Investigating this significant difference between the two neighborhoods is crucial. In line with these results, increasing the amount of green space and reducing residential and impervious areas in urban planning can be considered a strategic measure to reduce fire risk. This study makes an important contribution to understanding the relationship between surface temperature and fire risk and emphasizes the importance of land use planning in fire prevention strategies. This research aims to develop strategies to reduce the risks of urban fire. High surface temperatures trigger urban fires. Green areas have an important role in reducing surface temperature and fire risk. A temperature difference of between 1.7 and 3.6 °C occurred between the two neighborhoods, depending on the change in land use between 2014 and 2024.
Climate change and urbanisation are exacerbating climate risk, including pluvial flooding. Effective risk reduction therefore requires not only accounting for changing hazard patterns under future climate scenarios, but also understanding how land-use change, particularly urban expansion, modifies flood dynamics. This study assesses impact of urban development on pluvial flood exposure in the Stuttgart Region, Germany. We develop and simulate two spatially explicit urban growth scenarios based on current spatial plans: (1) a business-as-usual scenario reflecting current development practices, and (2) a climate-sensitive scenario characterised by more compact development, increased permeable green space, and the integration of blue-green infrastructure. These land-use scenarios are incorporated into a two-dimensional surface runoff model to evaluate their influence on flood extent, maximum depth and maximum flow velocity under an exceptional rainfall event. The results show that urban expansion can both exacerbate or reduce pluvial flooding in existing settlements, including impacts that extend across municipal boundaries. This demonstrates that local and regional planning decisions, as well as policy shaping development, can influence pluvial flood risk. This study’s spatially explicit, regional-level approach, which integrates spatial plans and development strategies, is transferable to other growing regions and can be linked with other modelling and scenario-based approaches. The findings provide further evidence for policy and planning practice of the importance of integrating water-sensitive design measures into new developments and of coordinating cross-boundary impact of plans and developments on flood risk.
Climate change poses significant socio-environmental challenges, particularly in sensitive ecosystems such as wetlands. In this context, this study assesses the perceptions, impacts, and adaptive strategies of local communities in response to climate change in the Pantanal wetland, Brazil. We conducted semi-structured interviews in two sampling cycles, 12 years apart (2012 and 2024), to analyze temporal changes in socio-environmental vulnerability. In addition, we examined historical temperature and precipitation data from the past 50 years to compare climate trends with local perceptions. Our findings indicate reduced rainfall, increased prolonged droughts, and associated impacts that directly and indirectly compromise residents’ quality of life. Perceptions of climate change have intensified, with 100
Increasing numbers of people around the globe are affected every year by the adverse consequences of storms, floods, droughts, wildfires and other natural hazards. Yet we know little about the short-term attitudinal effects of events of this type. Previous research suggests that like other shocks, extreme weather events may generate anti-democratic attitudes, which could fuel democratic backsliding as the frequency of such events increases. Using an unexpected events during survey design on flood data and surveys conducted in Latin America and the Caribbean between 2016 and 2019, I uncover no indication of such an effect. On the contrary, I find evidence that under certain circumstances, the salience shock of a flood event may even increase pro-democratic attitudes.
The U.S. land grant university system’s roots reach back to a mid-nineteenth century commitment to provide “liberal and practical” education to the “industrial classes”. By the early 20th century, the founding of the national Cooperative Extension Service (CES) institutionalized an evolved mission for higher education. The CES mission, which complemented the more traditional higher education missions of teaching and research, focused on community outreach and public service. In affiliation with the land grant university system, it was implemented by constituting and staffing a federal / state / county “cooperative” system of educators or “agents”. CES has served both conceptually and functionally as a boundary spanning organization to connect campus resources and people with off campus communities. CES educators now serve every county or county equivalent in the U.S. We describe the extent to which the national land grant universities and CES are recognizing the accelerating climate crisis as mission critical and are responding to the crisis within the broad parameters of its educational mandate. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the CES in its efforts to date to deliver climate services, considering the need for dynamic engagement with an increasingly diverse array of communities dealing with climate change. We describe the vision now coalescing of how the CES will further mobilize the extensive resources of the land grant university system to more effectively address the mitigation and adaptation needs of the communities served.
Climate change threatens wheat production and food security in sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding its impacts and identifying effective adaptation options are vital for climate-resilient agriculture. This study evaluated projected climate change effects on wheat productivity and management responses in Ethiopia’s central highlands using the DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model. Field experiments (2021–2022) at four sites (Kulumsa, Ambo, Holeta, and Fitche) with three improved cultivars (Hidase, Picaflor, and Alidoro) informed simulations under varying planting dates and nitrogen levels. Baseline (1984–2021) and future climates (2040–2069) were represented by 17 global climate models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model performed well (index of agreement 0.87–0.98; nRMSE 2.2–4.2
In this investigation we examine whether US adults believe that Hollywood should increase the visibility of climate solutions and climate-friendly behaviors in entertainment. In two well-powered studies (Study 1: N=1,199; Study 2: N=1,475), we find overwhelming support: 65-70
As climate change and its impacts have become more pronounced, financial firms, investors, and regulatory supervisors are increasingly seeking to understand financial climate risks. One frequently mentioned barrier to using global change science is that information coming from global change scenarios and models may not match the needs of financial users. For example, there is often a spatial and temporal mismatch between scenarios and decisions. In addressing this barrier, much of the global change science literature has focused on further model advancement and communicating limitations. We argue that these efforts are insufficient because they do not adequately address that financial climate risk assessment will be subject to financial institutions’ model risk management processes, which mitigate the risk that modeling implementation errors, incomplete understanding of model adequacy, or inappropriate model use will lead to poor quality decisions. We argue that current model risk management is insufficient to ensure good financial decisions involving climate risk and then suggest a way forward. We cover three points. First, we outline why common issues of global change scenarios and models—data availability, deep uncertainty, and linking complex models—create problems for existing model risk management practices to mitigate risk due to incomplete understanding of model adequacy. Second, we note that the broader discourse around the use of global change scenarios, which feed global change information forward into risk models, has not kept pace with trends in model risk management. In particular, the financial industry’s reverse stress testing uses a risk model to discover plausible scenarios that lead to a pre-defined adverse outcome, such as insolvency. Finally, we outline why applying existing reverse stress testing methods to climate risk will not necessary address model risks introduced by global change scenarios, which usually require linking complex models. To adequately treat this model risk, we propose iterative reverse scenario logic, which couples scenario discovery with periodic expert judgment to check for scenario plausibility between and across models. We argue that the proposed method has the potential to better compartmentalize individual model risks and hence minimize the combined model risk of chaining difficult to validate models under conditions of deep uncertainty.
Living with the risk or impact of coastal flooding can have serious consequences. However, social impacts, reflecting how people are affected, are generally not very well represented in coastal flood risk assessments. Instead, such analyses usually focus on factors that can be quantified in market values, implying that associated cost-benefit analyses will mainly highlight sectors suffering large monetary losses. In this paper, we argue for an approach to damage cost assessments of coastal flooding that - in addition to considering physical assets - includes equity and the impacts on people’s freedoms to fulfil their preferences. The approach suggests additional indicators representing equity and wellbeing as a supplement to conventional cost-benefit analyses for coastal flooding. We apply the approach to three flood-prone Danish coastal cities. Using a damage cost model and a detailed income dataset, we estimate the equity weighted damage costs. As indicators for how people are affected, we apply three different measures: hours committed to coping with flood impacts in homes, sick days, and market value loss of properties. Especially in one of the three cases, we find clear evidence that coastal flooding disproportionally affects people with incomes lower than the mean and hypothesize that here the potential social impacts could have significant consequences affecting households.
Based on macro panel data from 288 prefecture-level cities in China from 2001 to 2022, this study measures the spatiotemporal evolution of climate risk and grain production resilience and employs a two-way fixed effects model to explore the impact and mechanisms of climate risk on grain production resilience. The research findings indicate the following. (1) The climate risk index in China shows an overall fluctuating upward trend over time and evolves from a point-like distribution to a patch-like expansion in space. While the average annual level of grain production resilience has not declined significantly, its spatial pattern clearly exhibits a shrinking of high-value ranges and an overall trend toward equalization. (2) Climate risk reduces grain production resilience, and this impact exhibits spatial non-equilibrium. (3) Third, climate risk exerts a negative impact on grain production resilience primarily by weakening farmland production capacity, reducing agricultural labor efficiency, and diminishing agricultural production inputs. (4) Agricultural infrastructure construction, agricultural technological innovation capability, and agricultural insurance protection can effectively alleviate the negative shocks that climate risk brings to grain production resilience. This study provides an empirical basis for optimizing differentiated disaster prevention strategies and improving agricultural support policies.
As global climate change intensifies, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events has emerged as a critical concern for the global value chain (GVC) division of labor. This study constructs a spatial panel Durbin model using multi-country panel data to systematically examine the direct effects, spatial spillover effects, and heterogeneity of the Global Climate Physical Risk Index (GCPRI) on GVC participation.Our findings are three-fold. First, extreme weather physical risks exert a significant negative direct effect on domestic GVC participation. This suggests that local climate shocks weaken a country’s embedding and upgrading capabilities through infrastructure damage, diminished labor productivity, and increased operational uncertainty. Second, these risks generate significant positive spatial spillover effects via global trade networks, which outweigh the direct negative impacts. Driven by risk-averse and cost-minimizing motives, multinational enterprises reorganize supply chains in response to climate shocks in partner countries, creating opportunities for order relocation, market substitution, and enhanced GVC participation in recipient economies. Third, the total effect is significantly positive, highlighting the dynamic adaptability and resilience of the GVC system under climate-induced stress. Heterogeneity analysis reveals a bifurcated pattern: developing countries, Southern Hemisphere nations, and service-oriented economies achieve a net positive total effect due to strong spatial spillovers, whereas developed and Northern Hemisphere countries primarily bear the brunt of negative local and net effects. This study demonstrates that extreme weather influences GVC participation through the dual mechanisms of destructive shocks and opportunity reconfiguration, with the net outcome contingent upon a country’s position in the division of labor, economic structure, and trade characteristics.
Glaciers are a critical freshwater resource in the arid northwest of China, where vulnerability to glacier change is closely linked to regional water security, ecological stability, and socio-economic development. Using remote sensing imagery, reanalysis of meteorological data, and socio-economic statistics, we construct an Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptive Capacity (ESA) assessment framework and corresponding indicator system to evaluate glacier change vulnerability in the Chinese Altai Mountains. We analyze its spatiotemporal patterns from 2000 to 2020 and apply an obstacle model to identify key factors impeding vulnerability reduction. Our results indicate that vulnerability to glacier change increased consistently during 2000–2020, with notable spatial heterogeneity: lower vulnerability in the southwestern and central areas, and higher vulnerability in the northern and eastern regions. As socio-economic conditions improved over this period, the primary obstacles to reducing vulnerability shifted from factors related to adaptive capacity and sensitivity—such as urban fixed-asset investment and total grain output—to those associated with exposure. By 2020, vulnerability was driven mainly by glacier change dynamics, regional development, and growing population pressure. To regulate regional vulnerability, we propose several mitigation pathways, including increasing urban fixed-asset investment, improving water use efficiency, managing population growth, engaging in climate change mitigation initiatives, and implementing direct glacier protection measures.
