Abstract Tornadoes remain a dangerous and unpredictable hazard in the U.S., particularly for individuals with limited access to safe shelter. Community tornado shelters are intended to provide protection for households lacking adequate in-home options. Still, access alone does not guarantee use. This study applied an operant behavioral economic framework to examine how distance to a community shelter shapes protective action during a simulated tornado warning. In a discrete-choice demand task embedded in a statewide survey, 1,859 Kansas residents indicated whether they would wait, shelter at home, or travel to a community shelter during a tornado scenario. Consistent with a barrier effect, travel time required to reach the community shelter reduced the odds of leaving for a community shelter, even after adjusting for demographics, housing characteristics, and hazard-related factors. Residents of multifamily and manufactured homes were more likely to use community shelters than those in single-family homes, whereas having a basement substantially reduced the likelihood of leaving. Socioeconomic patterns were also evident: middle-income households were most likely to leave, and higher educational attainment was associated with greater tendency to shelter at home rather than wait for further notice. These findings emphasize distance as a quantifiable, modifiable barrier to tornado safety and demonstrate how behavioral economic methods can inform evidence-based standards for shelter siting, access, and communication in support of improved hazard resilience.
Abstract This paper examines how Americans assign responsibility for the rising urban wildfire risk and how those judgments influence their support for pre- or post-disaster planning and policy. Urban wildfires are becoming more destructive because of a combination of factors including climate change, expansion of settlement into the wildland–urban interface, fuel accumulation from fire suppression policies, and the failure of older infrastructure. Using two surveys conducted in summer 2025, a national U.S. sample and a California-focused sample, the study investigates public perceptions of wildfire trends, attribution of causation to climate change versus government mismanagement, and support for related mitigation and adaptation policies. The results show broad agreement across partisan groups that urban wildfires are increasing in frequency and severity. However, much like the messaging from the media and partisan elites, Democrats were significantly more likely to attribute the increase primarily to climate change, while Republicans were more likely to emphasize poor government management of forests. Californians were more likely than national respondents to view both climate change and government mismanagement as contributing causes, suggesting that proximity to wildfire risk and prolonged media exposure may encourage more multifaceted understandings of wildfire causation. Beliefs about causation were strongly associated with policy preferences: attribution to climate change predicted support for climate mitigation policies, while attribution to government mismanagement predicted support for fire-management policies. The findings suggest that communication emphasizing the multi-causal nature of urban wildfires may reduce polarization and build broader support for integrated wildfire governance strategies.
Abstract Northern Algeria is a transitional zone between the Mediterranean and the Sahara, yet the spatiotemporal structure of its long-term precipitation trends remains poorly studied. This study analyses 124 years of monthly precipitation data (1901-2024) extracted from the CRU-TS4.09 gridded dataset (0.5°×0.5°) at 50 stations distributed across the region. Three non-parametric statistical tools such as the Mann-Kendall trend test, Sen’s Slope estimator, and the Pettitt homogeneity test were combined with Ordinary Kriging interpolation and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to characterize the chronology, magnitude, and spatial structure of precipitation shift. Results reveal significant negative trends at the majority of stations (p<0.05), with annual decline rates ranging from -7.3% in northeastern coastal zones to -29.5% in the central and south-central area. Pettitt breakpoint analysis identifies a west-to-east temporal gradient in regime shift chronology: western stations experienced structural breaks as early as 1967, whereas eastern stations did not undergo comparable transitions until 2000-2011. Seasonal analysis shows that rainfall decline is concentrated in the winter (DJF) and spring (MAM) seasons. While summer and autumn distributions remain stable. PCA-based climatic regionalization outlines four clear clusters; characterized by contrasting rainfall, trend magnitude, and seasonal break chronology. The annual 400 mm isohyet corresponding to the critical threshold for viable rainfed cereal production, has shifted northward and contracted significantly in the recent 1981–2024 sub-period relative to the centennial baseline. These findings demonstrate that Algeria is experiencing a differentiated and irreversible hydroclimatic reorganization with consequences for cereal production viability. Reorient farm policy spatially to post-1980 rainfall, not historic norms.
Abstract Communicating snow squall risk is uniquely challenging for meteorologists. Squalls do not bring significant total snowfall amounts. Instead, their danger lies in the intense nature of the snowfall that greatly reduces visibility and creates slick roadways. To communicate these nuanced impacts, the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) began issuing Snow Squall Warnings in 2018, with the option to trigger a Wireless Emergency Alert (WEA). As Snow Squall Warnings, WEAs, and associated risk messaging tools are in their relative infancy, little work has been done to assess their efficacy. Thus, a bilingual (English and Spanish) virtual reality (VR) simulation of a snow squall was developed, in which users drive a vehicle on a limited-access highway through rapidly deteriorating conditions. In the simulation, participants are warned about snow squall hazards through a WEA and roadside changeable message sign and are subsequently given the option to exit the highway prior to conditions worsening. A sample of 146 English speakers and 70 Spanish speakers tested the VR simulation and completed a survey about their experience, providing insights into the effectiveness of snow squall risk communication tools. For those with more experience, the WEA alert and changeable message sign were less important to decision-making in the simulation, with the onset of heavy snow and reduced visibility instead serving as a key factor in their behavioral response. These results provide important information to the NWS and other risk communication partners as they continue to update and expand snow squall warning and outreach efforts. Significance Statement Snow squalls are short but intense bursts of snow, often accompanied by reduced visibility and icy roads. Those conditions are dangerous for motorists, especially those driving on highways, and can lead to large collisions involving many vehicles. To address this short-lived and localized hazard, the National Weather Service began issuing Snow Squall Warnings in 2018. In this study, we developed a bilingual (English and Spanish) virtual reality snow squall simulation. A total of 216 individuals tested the simulation and provided feedback, allowing us to better understand how risk messaging tools such as warnings and roadway changeable message signs are working. Survey results showed that the simulation itself and the risk messaging tools were most impactful for those with limited experience encountering snow squalls.
Abstract Broadcast and digital meteorologists play an important role in how the public receives weather information, yet little is known about how these professionals communicate within a rapidly expanding, fragmented media landscape. Drawing on a nationwide survey of 193 degreed and practicing meteorologists conducted in partnership with the AMS Board on Broadcast Meteorology and the AMS Board of Digital Meteorologists, this study examines which platforms these professionals use, how hazard communication practices differ across channels, and how broadcast meteorologists divide their time between television and digital work. Results show that television, Facebook, and Twitter/X remain the dominant platforms for weather communication, while video-centric platforms such as YouTube and TikTok are considerably underutilized relative to their popularity with the public. Meteorologists serving in combined broadcast and digital roles showed higher adoption of emerging platforms than broadcast-only professionals, though both groups lag behind public demand for video content. High-impact hazards such as tornadoes, floods, and winter storms were communicated across nearly all platforms, while slower-developing or regionally specific hazards showed considerably more variation. On average, broadcast respondents devoted roughly two-thirds of their professional time to television responsibilities and one-third to digital work, a pattern that held regardless of job title, though the distribution of digital workload differed significantly between Certified Broadcast Meteorologists and their uncertified counterparts. These findings have direct implications for professional training, certification programs, and the weather enterprise’s ability to reach audiences where they are.
