The upgrading of manufacturing industry will have a comprehensive and profound impact on the employment of migrant labor and their household consumption. Based on the survey data of China Migrants Dynamic Survey from 2013 to 2014 and 2016 to 2017, this paper analyzes the impact of manufacturing upgrading on the migrant labor’ housing tenure choice from the urban level. Some research results are obtained.（1）The upgrading of urban manufacturing industry has reduced the probability of migrant labor purchasing housing in the inflow area and made migrant labor more inclined to rent housing in the local area. Using the manufacturing industry policy of pilot cities as a tool variable to conduct an endogenous test, the result is still stable.（2）Using the heterogeneity analysis, it is found that the upgrading of manufacturing industry makes migrant labor with low education, regular work, manufacturing and low-end service industries choose to enter the housing rental market on the job site.（3）Through the intermediary effect model and generalized structural equation model, it is confirmed that the upgrading of the manufacturing industry could reduce the employment stability of the migrant labor and improve the urban housing price increase, making the migrant labor more inclined to rent housing in the inflow area. This paper suggests that local governments should pay attention to the impact of the upgrading of manufacturing industry on the choice of migrant labor’s housing tenure choice, and meet the differentiated housing needs of migrant labor while continuously promoting the upgrading of manufacturing industry.
Insufficient consumption is a prominent problem facing the Chinese economy. Under the background of the innovation-driven development strategy, with the improvement of the level of innovation in various regions, has this problem been alleviated? This paper builds a general equilibrium model to theoretically analyze the possible impact and path of innovation on residents’ consumption, and conducts empirical research using micro-survey data and urban panel data. The results show that the improvement of urban innovation level will promote the increase of residents’ consumption. From the perspective of different skills and regions,innovation only has a significant impact on the consumption of low-skilled households and the Midwest. The development of urban inclusive finance and the narrowing of income gap have a significant positive adjustment effect on the impact of innovation on consumption, but these two channels are mainly effective for low-skilled labor groups; although the improvement of innovation level can promote the progress of urban new product research and development, but did not give birth to new products that can actually stimulate consumption. Two reasons make innovation only promote the consumption of low-skilled labor groups and low-level consumption.
Based on data of CHARLS in 2015 and 2018, this paper studies the impact of New Rural Society Endowment Insurance Program（NRSEI） on the consumption inequality of rural residents by introducing fixed effect model and instrumental variable method, finding that NRSEI reduces the total consumption inequality of rural residents. According to the analysis of consumption structure, we find that the program significantly alleviates the inequality of development-oriented consumption and enjoyment-oriented consumption, but has no significant impact on subsistence consumption. It has significantly reduced expenditure inequality in tobacco,alcohol, daily necessities and health care, but has exacerbated expenditure inequality in food. The alleviating effect of NRSEI on consumption inequality is reflected both in the link of insurance participation and pension receiving which is more prominent, indicating that NRSEI not only helps to improve the future security expectation of the low-income groups, but also helps to improve their consumption ability and release their consumption demand directly. Besides, NRSEI promotes the release of consumption demand of low-income groups to a greater extent and makes the consumption of low-income groups increase more than that of high-income ones, which is the main mechanism of NRSEI reducing consumption inequality. The paper shows that NRSEI contributes to the consumption upgrading of low-income groups, providing new empirical evidence for evaluating the policy effect of NRSEI. Besides, the conclusion has important policy value for developing rural consumption market.
Using China household finance survey data, this paper empirically tests the impact of accident experience on household consumption. The results show that the accident experience will make the household consumption increase instead of decrease, and the "carpe diem" effect provides a possible explanation. Accident experience is particularly significant in promoting enjoyment and development consumption, but the change of survival consumption is not obvious. The mechanism analysis shows that the accident experience enhances the family’s risk aversion, improves the transfer income from relatives and friends, and finally increases consumption,but it does not confirm the guess of the precautionary saving theory. Further research shows that with the improvement of household consumption level, the promotion effect of accident experiences on consumption presents an inverted U-shaped trend. This promotion effect will decay with time. Different types of accident experiences also have different effects on consumption, and the effect of "carpe diem" is stronger for families with higher digital level and younger heads of households. This paper provides a new perspective and empirical evidence for studying and explaining family consumption behavior, and provides a useful reference for consolidating the achievements of poverty alleviation and safeguarding family economic welfare.
The role of cultural consumption in tourism development is becoming more and more prominent. The expansion of cultural consumption and the transformation and upgrading of cultural industry have become an important starting point for the country to promote the high-quality development of tourism economy and better meet the people’s good life needs. With the help of the quasi natural experiment of the national cultural consumption pilot policy, based on the multi-stage double difference model and using the panel data of 283 prefecture level cities from2008 to 2019, this paper evaluates the impact of cultural consumption on tourism economy and its mechanism for the first time. It is found that the pilot policy of cultural consumption has significantly promoted the development of regional tourism economy, but it mainly depends on domestic tourists and has no obvious impact on inbound tourism.Mechanism analysis found that the pilot policy of cultural consumption mainly stimulated the market vitality through "consumption leading effect" and "industrial linkage effect", thus leveraging the development of regional tourism economy. Heterogeneity analysis shows that this stimulating effect is stronger in the central and western regions and areas with high digital economy development. This study provides rich empirical evidence for the further implementation and promotion of the pilot policy of cultural consumption across the country, and also provides policy enlightenment for the development of regional tourism economy.
Consumption is one of the troikas driving economic growth. Under the macro background of the supply side structural reform and the new development pattern of "international and domestic double circulation",stimulating consumption has become an important foothold for stimulating domestic demand and "internal circulation". As an extension of the supply side structural reform of the digital economy, China vigorously supports new business forms such as cross-border e-commerce, and hopes to stimulate consumption through cross-border e-commerce reform. This paper takes the cross-border e-commerce comprehensive experimental areas established by the State Council as a research case and combines the data of China Family Panel Studies（CFPS） to mainly analyze the impact and mechanism of cross-border e-commerce reform on household consumption. The empirical results show that the cross-border e-commerce reform has significantly increased the household consumption in the experimental areas, but it has a stronger effect on the consumption of the eastern region, the high internet penetration area, the rural area and the family sample group with poor social and economic conditions. The mechanism tests find that the cross-border e-commerce reform significantly promotes the employment, income and savings of families in the experimental areas, and the decrease of unemployment rate and the increase of income and savings are the indirect and direct influence channels of the cross-border e-commerce reform to improve the consumption of families in the experimental areas. In addition, the extended analysis finds that the cross-border e-commerce reform can alleviate the income inequality and consumption inequality in the experimental areas.
Research on the internal relationship between elderly care and family consumption is of great significance to jointly deal with the release of national consumption potential and aging problems, accelerate the construction of the new development paradigm. In this paper, the household panel data of CFPS in 2010, 2016 and2018 were used to investigate the influence of family elder care on the total and structure of household consumption by using the fixed effects model. Furthermore, the mediation effect model and the method of adding interaction terms were further used to examine the influence mechanism of family elder care on family consumption. Family elderly care can significantly increase the total household consumption and promote the upgrading of household consumption structure, but in high-intensity care families, the promoting effect will be significantly inhibited and no longer contribute to the upgrading of consumption. The results remained reliable even after instrumental variable method and PSM propensity score matching were used to alleviate endogenous problems. Mechanism test shows that family care can significantly promote consumption and improve family consumption structure through downward intergenerational transfer, while the "income penalty" effect and increased health risks caused by family elderly care can significantly inhibit family consumption. The impact varies among income households, regions, and urban and rural areas. The policy suggestions are as follows: to consolidate the basic status of family elderly care and build a social pension security system around family care,which is conducive to releasing the potential of family consumption and promoting the sustainable economic growth, high-intensity care, low-income, rural, and western families should be the primary focus of the policy.
Strengthening regional rule of law plays an important role in improving the consumption system and mechanism, expanding domestic demand and promoting high-quality development. Based on panel data of 30provinces in China from 2000 to 2017, this paper demonstrates and tests the impact of regional judicial quality on residents’ consumption. The study found that the improvement of regional judicial quality significantly promoted residents’ consumption, and the conclusion was still valid after the robustness test. The heterogeneity analysis shows that the improvement of regional judicial quality has a more significant role in promoting the consumption of residents in eastern regions, regions with large populations and regions with high credibility. Further analysis shows that the improvement of regional judicial quality can indirectly promote residents’ consumption by improving the level of corporate social responsibility. Residents’ awareness of safeguarding their rights plays an important positive role in regulating the impact of regional judicial quality on residents’ consumption. Improving residents’ awareness of safeguarding their rights can strengthen the promotion of regional judicial quality improvement on residents’ consumption. The implication of the research conclusion is that further strengthening the construction of regional judicial quality and fostering residents’ awareness of rights protection will help improve the level of corporate social responsibility and promote residents’ consumption level.
Narrowing the gap in consumption distribution, improving the overall consumption rate, and fully releasing the potential of domestic demand are the fundamental path to form a new pattern of economic development dominated by the domestic cycle. Based on the data of China Household Finance Survey（CHFS）from 2013 to 2019, this paper puts consumption inequality and income inequality in the same analytical framework, measures the inequality degree of various consumption of Chinese households in detail, and further discusses the formation mechanism of overall consumption inequality. Specifically, on the one hand, from the perspective of income and urban-rural grouping, which is a one-dimensional group decomposition, we can obtain the intra group and inter group gaps of household consumption inequality in China, and preliminarily explore the formation mechanism of consumption inequality; on the other hand, the Shapley value decomposition method based on regression equation is used to obtain the contribution degree of various factors, comprehensively analyze the causes of consumption inequality, and highlight the differences in the formation mechanism of different types of consumption inequality. The results show that during this period, consumption inequality and income inequality basically increased first and then decreased. The Gini coefficient of income fluctuated between 0.485 and 0.520,and the Gini coefficient of consumption varied between 0.456 and 0.510. In the formation mechanism of consumption inequality, the overall consumption inequality is mainly caused by the consumption gap between income groups and between urban and rural areas. Income is an important factor affecting total consumption inequality, and its relative contribution is between 20-25%. The reasons for the formation of subsistence consumption inequality and development and enjoyment consumption inequality are inconsistent, which may be related to the education, age and health factors in individual characteristics. This study provides a new theoretical basis and research direction for a comprehensive understanding of consumption inequality, and has some policy implications for effectively reducing consumption inequality.
As the aging of population is deepening in China, the consumption of middle-aged and elderly household has gradually become an important factor affecting the expansion of domestic demand. Based on data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study（CHARLS） for 2018, this paper investigates the impact of raising grandchildren on grandparents’ consumption and analyzes the internal mechanism. The result shows that,raising grandchildren has a significant positive impact on the expansion of consumption and consumption upgrading of the middle-aged and elderly household. In detail, raising grandchildren promotes the increase of consumption level as well as the proportion of enjoyment consumption expenditure, while reducing the proportion of survival consumption expenditure, especially the proportion of medical expenditure. The mechanism test shows that emotional support from the offspring, social interaction, and internet using could partially explain the effect of raising grandchildren on the consumption of middle-aged and elderly household. Further research shows that intergenerational support expectations will weaken the promotion effect of raising grandchildren on the consumption of middle-aged and elderly household.
中国式现代化与人民美好生活消费需要的满足具有紧密的内在联系,在把握好中国式现代化特征的基础上要更好发挥消费对现代化经济建设的作用.构建新发展格局需把扩大消费摆在优先位置,深入实施扩大内需战略,把恢复和扩大消费同扎实推进共同富裕、深化供给侧结构性改革有机结合起来;加快建设全国统一大市场,着力增强国内大循环内生动力和可靠性,更好地畅通国民经济循环.数字经济为消费新场景、新业态、新模式发展提供了重大机遇,有助于让消费者享受更加便捷化、个性化、品质化、社交化的消费服务.尹世杰消费经济思想是中国特色社会主义消费经济学的重要思想宝库,新时代消费经济学发展应结合中国式现代化的实践,加快构建中国特色社会主义消费经济学的自主知识体系、学科体系、学术体系和话语体系.
(上接2023年第1期) 社会保障作为满足居民多层次物质需求的基础性保障手段,对于促进居民消费水平提升和实现国家经济高质量发展具有重要意义.具体而言,社会保障政策的风险缓解效应可以通过降低居民未来的风险预期及收支不确定性来提升当期消费能力.此外,正如前文第三部分论述的那样,收入分配不均是导致我国消费需求整体低迷的重要因素[53][112].而国内各项社会保障的政策实践均证明了社会保障对收入再分配的重要影响[113],其资源分配效应在调节收入差距过程中具有较高的贡献率,对于提升低收入人群的边际消费倾向和防止社会财富两极分化具有积极作用,进而能够推动社会资源公平配置和缓解"待遇差"问题,在增强居民风险应对能力的过程中提振消费信心,营造良好的市场经济环境.然而,与发达国家相比,我国的社会保障支出水平相对较低.2020年,我国社会保障与就业支出仅相当于GDP的3.2％.而同年美国的社会福利开支相当于GDP的18.8％,日本的这一数据为22.02％,德国为26.57％,同为新兴经济体的韩国为8.85％①,均远高于我国的支出水平.在此背景下,国内学者们主要围绕社会保险与社会救助这两大类对不同类型的社会保障与居民消费的关系展开了针对性的研究,探索好钢用在刀刃上的路径.
In the article, based on Roemer’s equal opp ortunity theory, the impact of basic public service provision on residents’ consumption is tested using a fixed effects model by matching provincial macro and three rounds of China Family Panel Studies（CFPS） data from 2014 to 2018. It is found that, the basic public service provision significantly promotes the growth of residents’ consumption in general, and the finding remains robust after the instrumental variables approach with a series of robustness tests. The mechanism analysis shows that the provision of basic public services contributes to an equal opportunity, not only to alleviate the inequality of opportunity caused by the "circumstance", but also to improve the "partial circumstance problem" of inequality of "effort" caused by the "circumstance", thus promoting the growth of consumption. This implies that enhancing basic public service provision will effectively lead to equal opportunities for sharing the fruits of development, and the impact of basic public service provision on residents’ consumption is more significant in rural, low-income,female, low old-age burden, low human capital and low father’s education households. The implication of the study findings is that achieving equalization of basic public services, sharing the fruits of social development, and promoting equal opportunities can help stimulate residents’ consumption and provide endogenous impetus for smooth domestic circulation in the context of the new development pattern.
共同富裕是政治经济学的重大理论和实践问题.在全面建设社会主义现代化国家的新征程中扎实推进共同富裕,必须深刻理解共同富裕的科学内涵,避免一些认识的误区.第一,共同富裕不是整齐划一的平均主义,效率与公平的有机结合是共同富裕的本质要求,必须坚持促进效率、体现公平的原则;第二,共同富裕不能单纯强调分配的作用,生产与分配的有机结合是共同富裕的内在诉求,要在做大"蛋糕"的基础上分好"蛋糕";第三,单纯依靠发挥市场作用不能实现共同富裕,市场与政府的有机结合是共同富裕的根本途径,更好发挥政府作用才能避免两极分化;第四,共同富裕不是全体人民同步富裕,阶段性目标与最终目标的有机结合是共同富裕的必由之路,要在动态过程中分阶段逐步推进共同富裕.
现代流通体系是数字经济时代供给与需求持续动态平衡的有效载体,是区域经济协同并进的重要支撑.文章基于我国现代流通体系数字化转型现状,从生产、分配、交换、消费、信息五个环节构建发展水平评价指标系统,并运用全局熵值法对2008-2020年全国及31省份现代流通体系发展水平及各环节水平进行实证研究.结果表明:第一,从总体看,现代流通体系发展水平偏低且增速提升显著,东部、中部、东北、西部地区呈阶梯状分布.第二,分环节看,长板环节为信息、消费和分配,短板环节为生产和交换;现代流通体系虽有长板引领但短板制约性不断提升.第三,从区域看,东部地区的广东、浙江、江苏、上海、北京作为珠三角、长三角、京津冀的核心省份,产生强大的流通能力突破区域边界辐射全国;中部、东北、西部地区依托优势省份安徽、辽宁、四川,带动区域内省份共同发力形成畅通循环;东部地区核心省份和其他地区优势省份依托产业链、物流网络互促互进,形成联动发展态势.
家庭或企业行为决策中的"同群效应"正为学术界所关注.文章基于2010-2014年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,运用固定效应模型验证了家庭消费决策中的"同群效应".基本实证结果表明:(1)家庭的当期总体消费水平与周边社区其他家庭的当期消费水平正相关,但却与其他家庭滞后一期的消费水平负相关;(2)分为生存型消费、发展型消费与享受型消费后,家庭的三类消费支出同样表现出"同群效应",其中生存型消费最为明显.机制分析发现,家庭消费的"同群效应"是一种因参考点框架产生的现象,而不能由理性预期的"习惯形成"解释.当家庭将同期社区的其他家庭消费水平作为参考点时,家庭并未考虑同期的消费追赶对未来预期消费效用的影响.进一步的异质性分析结果表明,在家庭与周边社群的社会关系越紧密或社会背景的同质性越高时,家庭消费的"同群效应"会越强.
准确定位食品安全工作的战略目标,构建中国食品安全战略框架,是提升食品安全治理水平的关键.为贯彻落实党的十九大报告提出的食品安全战略,应坚持以人民为中心理念,遵循消费安全治理准绳,配合健康中国战略的落地实施.新时代中国食品安全战略需围绕食品安全治理保障能力提升的核心目标,从供需侧有效匹配的战略基点出发重点开展工作,形成基于信任的多元主体协同治理格局.现阶段中国食品安全面临高质量需求与低质量供给矛盾、传统监管与食品产业发展不同步、舆情治理机制存在漏洞以及城乡食品安全意识形态差异明显等现实问题.对此提出深化大数据技术应用,以战略框架为基础,从实施食品高质量供给、建立智能化食品安全风险治理体系、加强善后保障体系建设和培养正确的食品安全意识等方面着手,从而推动食品安全战略和健康中国战略的进程.
在梳理马克思主义消费理论的基础上,文章利用一个包含三部门的线性生产模型讨论扩大消费对社会再生产的影响.研究发现:消费能力由生产力和生产关系共同决定,并且影响社会再生产的比例关系.生产力发展水平决定消费能力的上限,生产关系决定工资与利润的分配比例,进而影响总需求中消费与积累的结构.在市场经济条件下,由资本积累主导的社会再生产不同于合意的社会再生产,利润率下降将降低积累意愿,进而导致产能利用率下降.此时,扩大消费有可能提高产能利用率,并有利于社会再生产的持续稳定运行.上述发现所带来的当代启示为构建新发展格局必须抓住扩大内需这个战略基点,尤其要重视扩大消费的关键作用,在生产环节要通过调整生产结构与提高生产效率夯实扩大消费的物质基础,在分配环节要通过提高劳动报酬占比夯实扩大消费的收入基础,在交换环节则要通过加快建立全国统一大市场促进消费潜力与超大市场优势的释放,进而形成高质量的国内经济大循环.
新兴起的短视频商业模式成功激发了消费者潜在需求,提高了其消费意愿;但是关于以生活场域还原为运营主线的短视频商业模式如何影响消费者购买意愿的问题,目前学术界还缺乏深入的理论研究.文章借助S-O-R理论,构建了短视频生活场域还原通过虚拟触觉与感知价值作用于消费者购买意愿的链式中介模型,并综合运用结构方程模型与Bootstrap法定量检验了该模型的合理性.结果表明:(1)短视频生活场域还原对消费者购买意愿存在正向影响;(2)虚拟触觉与感知价值分别在短视频生活场域还原对消费者购买意愿的正向影响中起部分中介作用;(3)虚拟触觉与感知价值在短视频生活场域还原对消费者购买意愿的正向影响中起链式中介作用.研究丰富了短视频商业模式的相关理论,为企业在短视频平台上有效地采用生活场域还原形式进行产品运营提供了实践建议.
消费不平等问题是实现共同富裕的难点.养老保险降费政策作为调节收入再分配的主要手段,可以有效减轻企业负担并提升低收入群体收入,从而减缓消费不平等,推进实现全民共同富裕.文章基于2012-2018年CFPS四期数据进行实证分析,研究发现:养老保险降费会显著降低家庭消费不平等;对于不同的消费不平等类型而言,养老保险降费均可减缓其不平等程度,但对发展型消费不平等的减缓作用更明显;进一步的研究检验了养老保险降费通过减缓家庭收入不平等进而减缓消费不平等的作用机制;此外,异质性分析发现,养老保险降费对户主年龄较小群体、家庭养老保险参保率较高群体、中低收入群体、家庭不健康率较低群体的消费不平等有显著减缓效果.
