Some general issues concerning current and future population trends in Australia are considered. The author argues against the need for continued high levels of population growth. She concludes that "the least disruptive path to eventual equilibrium is to maintain fertility near replacement level and to reduce the migrant intake to about one-third of the current level, i.e. to a net intake of about 50,000 per year."
At this time, apart from the normal demographic studies which are beginning to emanate from China, there are some unique and important population policy statements being issued. These policies, if fully implemented, may significantly change the demographic profile of China within the next 20 years. A radical population policy is currently being applied throughout much of the country. It involves a unique system of incentives and disincentives which are expected eventually to lower the birthrates markedly. The new birth planning program is termed the 1 child family program. China's population stood at nearly 540 million at the time of liberation in 1949. 30 years later the figure approached 1000 million. The target has been set to reduce the natural population increase rate from 10/1000 in 1980 to 5/1000 population in 1985 and to achieve zero population growth by the year 2000. Vice Premier Chen Muhua in an article in "Renmin Ribao" on August 11, 1979 provided a detailed and carefully constructed argument outlining some of the immediate steps needed to reduce birthrates. She noted that the objective of reducing the national growth rate to 5/1000 population by 1985 could be realized by reducing multi-parity birthrates, or the percentage of births which are of 3rd or higher occurrence. It is also believed that if parents would have only 2 children this could lead to a 30% decline in the total number of births occurring each year. Leading Asian family planners believe that it is not possible for any Asian country to achieve the goal of couples having only 1 child, particularly those with 3/4 or more of their population living off the land as peasants or farmers. In China the current birth planning and population control measures have been directly linked with the national campaign of 4 modernizations, i.e., in advancing agriculture, industry, defense, science and technology. The 1980s for China could be particularly difficult socially or sensitive demographically, as the proportion of women in their prime reproductive age will be very high. The campaign of the 1 child family is backed with the following: insisting on delayed marriage into the late 20s; urging the postponement of the 1st birth; spacing of at least 4 years between births; utilizing contraceptive techniques; and resorting to abortions whenever necessary to achieve policy aims.
