Attention is given to population and growth and the impact on the environment and resources in China. Policies for managing the environment and instituting population education are also addressed. The first position paper of the National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPAC) on June 2, 1990 is summarized. The population of China was 1.11 billion in 1989. The rate of growth in 1988 was 14.2/1000 in 1988. 91% live in the southeast on 43% of the land. Land area is 9.6 million square miles. 65% can be made arable, and 14% is cultivated. China has 7% of the world's arable land and 20% of the world's population. Population growth has reduced arable land/captia. The impact on forests has been deforestation. 13% of land is currently forested, and timber reserves encompass 9.14 billion cubic meters, or 9 cubic meters/person. The demand for firewood and timber will increase. The impact on grasslands has been overgrazing and desertification at a current rate of 1560 square kilometer/year. The impact on energy resources is a greater demand for coal which will increase and thus increase pollution of the environment. The impact on water resources is greater demand and increased pollution. Water resources are 2700 cubic meters/person or less than the world average. 26.8 billion tons of waste water were industrially discharged out of 36.8 billion tons. 436 of the 532 rivers are polluted. The impact on the environment is a decreased standard of living. NEPAC reported that air pollution was slightly reduced in 4% of the cities in 1988, increased in 4%, and stable in the remaining cities. Water quality improved through the lowering of industrial waste water discharges, but 72% of river segments are still above the standards. Each major river system is discussed. Noise increased, and industrial solid wastes increased. Forest reserve is 9.141 billion cubic meters; the man-made forest has increased. The loss of grasslands is .13 million hectares/year. Cultivated land is 95.72 million hectares, but 100,000 hectares/year are damaged by natural disasters and 6 million are polluted by industrial wastes. 606 nature preserves have been established. In 1989, a complete legal system of environmental protection was established and investment increased.
A national sampling survey carried out in China in 1988 showed that 90.71% of the population were using some form of contraception: male sterilization (10.99%); female sterilization (38.24%); and IUDs (41.48%). Compared with 1982, the figures gathered in 1988 showed an increase in male sterilization and female sterilization and a decrease in condoms, oral or injected contraceptives, IUDs and spermicides. A great difference was found between the contraceptive methods used by women in rural areas as compared to women in urban areas. In urban areas IUDs accounted for 58%, female sterilization for 15%, male sterilization for 1% and condoms for 13%. In the country, female sterilization accounted for 42%, IUDs for 39%, male sterilization 15%, condoms 1% and oral contraceptives for 4%. There was also a strong difference between women of certain ages; the use of IUDs was highest among women between the ages of 15-29 years, while female sterilization was more prevalent for women over the age of 30. There was also a considerable difference between the birth control taken by women with children and those without; the majority of women (31%) without children used condoms; the majority of children (78%) with 1 child used IUDs; the majority of women (65%) with 2 children were sterilized. The sample study shows that 91% of the women using contraception used long-acting contraception.
The China Population Information and Research Center reported that in 1988 the number of childbearing women between 20 and 49 was 4.65 million above 1987, but the population growth rate was 0.19 lower than in 1987. Controlling the population is still a difficult problem. The 3rd baby boom of New China; economic, cultural, social, and other factors; and the uneven progress of family planning are cited as causes of the lack of control. The 13th Party's Congress in 1989 plans to work to reform family planning and control population growth. In particular, late marriages and childbearing will be promoted; in cities, one-child-per- couple will be policy; in rural areas, only girl households will be allowed another child only after several years; local family planning regulations will be supported; and research on family planning and safer, longer acting contraceptives will be financed.
A professor of the Institute of Population Research of the People's University of China attempts to project the future population development of China so that stabilization of the birth policy can be assessed. He divides China into the economically developed and population-controlled area (29% of the population), the economically subdeveloped and population fairly-controlled areas (59% of the population), and the economically less-developed areas where fertility is high (12% of the population). China's population is expected to increase because of the baby boom to 1.25-1.3 billion by the year 2000. Between 1996 and 2000, the growth rate is expected to decelerate and reach zero growth. After 2010, if growth is held at the replacement rate of 2.1, the population will still continue to grow slowly. Around 2100, China's population should be around 1.45-1.59 billion. This would cause a decrease of 27% of arable land. With a decline in fertility rate comes a rise in the amount of the aged population (4.9% in 1982 vs. 5.5% in 1987). The proportion of aged citizens is expected to rise with the stabilization policy until around 2040 where it can be held at about 18%. China's GNP by the year 2000 is expected to be US$1183.8 billion with the per capita GNP about US$934 (providing the population is controlled). Compare this figure with the per capita GNP of the world (US$30,100) and of developed countries (US$10,700) in 1988, and one can see that China is far behind the rest of the world in economic growth.
This article analyzed the 3rd Chinese baby boom and its causes by focusing on the fertility intensity of women and the number of births per year. The 3rd baby boom is expected to end in 2002 and to peak in 1995. The baby boom in urban areas will last a much shorter time than in rural areas. Particular differences are manifested between provinces: 1) The baby boom will last 3-4 years in Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin, and will last 10 years in Liaoning, Jilin, and Jiangsu. In other provinces, the boom will last 15-23 years; 2) The peak years are different between provinces; 3) The base number of births curves are province-specific; 4) The absolute base birth numbers are different between provinces (Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, and Sichuan 700,000; Beijing, Tianjin, Qinghai, and Ningzia 100,000); and 5) The shapes of progressive increases for base number of births are province specific. The increase in the number of childbearing-age women, the unplanned higher parity births, and early marriage and childbearing have all contributed to the current baby boom. Recommendations to control the problem include controlling higher parity births, observing birth spacing, and controlling the age of marriage and childbearing.
