This essay reviews the main sources of public access information on the development of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico; what have been the concepts they have handled and their operational definition; what its characteristics, scope and limitations; what data has been provided in each source; how a certain data source is linked with others and how this makes it possible, within accuracy margins that leave space for speculation, the construction of a statistical model that enables a comprehensive and coherent estimation of the incidents of cases and deaths caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the consequences caused in the health of the population of Mexico by this pandemic. Although with the data directly provided in a database by the health authorities of the country it is possible to know the volume of cases confirmed as positive for SARS-CoV-2 through various methods, this information only accounts for part of the phenomenon and leaves hides the real magnitude of the pandemic. Therefore, the expansion of cases from alternative sources is necessary, as at the time was the results of the sentinel model and more recently the data from the National Survey of Health and Nutrition COVID-19 and the count of excess mortality according to the registration of death certificates carried out by various public institutions in a coordinated manner. These sources allow corroborating that at the close of the first year of the pandemic, just under half of the country’s population, 60 million people, had been infected with the virus that causes COVID-19 and the volume of deaths added to normal reached almost300 thousand people.
This paper discuss the extent to which municipalities (alcaldias) in Mexico City contributed to the magnitude of the COVID-19 health emergency. To do so, we use the language of the communications to citizens to explain the behavior of the pandemic and the mobility of citizens across municipalities. We use the prevalence of confirmed cases to conjecture about active cases, particularly concerning the time until flattening the curve. The main objective is to show the behavior of the pandemic by visualizing the evolution that the pandemic (as a health phenomenon) had throughout the year. We use three important dates to show how likely (or not) citizens were to follow stay-at-home restrictions. We also discuss which municipalities' trends are likely to explain the city's trends. The main goal of this project is to help understand and explain the pandemic as a phenomenon as unexpected as it was and which may have no short or medium-run solution.
The pandemic caused by the COVID-19 disease has disrupted all areas of life and has contributed to making poverty, inequality and social exclusion visible on different scales. Street populations, one of the sectors that are in extreme poverty and that suffer deep social exclusion, is exposed to contagion and to suffering from the disease in a serious mode due to their condition of living on the Street, due to their usual precarious health, due to their lack of Access to health services and other forms of discrimination. Through a documentary and exploratory investigation, some aspects of the population living on the streets are presented: how they live, how they are distributed in Mexico City and what problems they face during the pandemic. Despite being an extremely vulnerable sector and its condition is explicitly recognized in the Constitution of Mexico City, it has received little government attention.
This investigation analyses the excess of mortality of people infected by the virus SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico, which causes the disease known as COVID-19, and the underlying increase in the fatality rate by means of a non-parametric survival model. An exploratory data analysis is carried out using the official information referred to the individual characteristics of those who have presented the symptoms and have passed away. Besides, the survival probability is obtained by means of Kaplan-Meier estimates. The process is controlled for comorbidities to identify the lack of early care and the excess of the most common comorbidities in Mexico as factors responsible for the excess of mortality and the high fatality rate.
This article aims to analyze the economic vulnerability faced by indigenous households in the Mayan Zone of Quintana Roo, Mexico in the context of economic unemployment due to COVID19. To fulfill the objective, an analysis of the income structure of indigenous households in the Maya area of Quintana Roo, Mexico, was proposed. It is assumed that households whose income structure is oriented towards income from work will be more vulnerable than those with a structure more oriented towards conditional cash transfers that the federal government grants. The hypothesis is verified and it is also shown that households that also support their income structure in remittances and agricultural activity will also be vulnerable to economic unemployment. This exercise can help public decision makers to design and manage public policies that lessen the impact of economic unemployment due to COVID-19 in homes that are poor and vulnerable, such as those where indigenous populations live.
This paper estimates the benefits of flattening the COVID-19 epidemic curve in the five Mexican cities that concentrate most of the cases in the country. On average, the analysis finds that mitigation policies reduced the number of total cases in 46%. A smaller epidemic allows each city’s the healthcare system to better manage cases by delaying the pressure on health resources. The result is that 69 % of the deaths that would have occurred were averted by mitigation policies (about 129,000 people). These benefits can be monetized as about 219 billion USD, which represents 8.4% of the Mexican GDP in 2019.
The objective of this work is to carry out an exploratory review of some of the socioeconomic impacts derived from the health emergency of COVID-19 in Latin America and particularly in the case of Mexico. For this, some of these aspects were contrasted with respect to the political actions taken by the governments of the region. The analysis was made through the statistical review of the information published by international organizations, as well as by journalistic publications. As a result, it was obtained that, although the political actions in most Latin countries have been more than 100 in a short period of time, they have not been sufficient or adequate to curb the risks in terms of people's lives. Finally, a series of recommendations are presented to overcome this collective emergency.
This article studies the inflation process in Mexico during the period 2007-2018 with a non-monetary analysis, where it is emphasized the magna gasoline price like a main cause of inflationary process. First, this research examines the Mexican economy evolution ‒the level of economic activity, economic growth rate and its perspectives‒; secondly, it follows with an analysis of the Mexican financial systems, where receives special attention the interest rates in Mexico and USA, and the exchange rate behavior like an inflationary factor. In the third part, it is discussed the trend of Mexican gasoline prices, taking the USA prices like a reference. Finally, data about Mexican inflation are shown disaggregated through its two main components. Also, an econometric model of inflation as a function of gasoline prices is carried out.
Inflation in all economies is a thermometer of economic activity, its financial stability and one of the most important parameters of the purchasing power of a country. In this sense, the study of the direct determinants of inflation is crucial to prevent inflationary shocks in the short and medium term. Since the last century, monetary variables have been linked as sole causes of inflation, completely excluding the structural inflationary approach. The purpose of this article is to investigate in the determination of inflation by structural origins, the central hypothesis being that the price of regular gasoline as a direct cause of inflation. The different inflationary theories are studied and the transfer of the oil price to the inflation of the United States (an economy with ultra-low inflation rates) is examined. To corroborate this hypothesis, an Autorregressive Movil Average Exogenous (ARMAX) econometric model is performed, which links gasoline prices and inflation lags as inflationary determinants. Finally, monthly data is forecast for 2019 inflation.
Dramatic development of information technologies (IT) has been unbalance around de world. The diffusion of these tools has been different between developed and developing countries causing a digital divide. International organisations such as United Nations, International Telecommunications Union and Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, have conducted diverse studies related to this area and published proposals for countries in order to increase IT diffusion. The aim of this document is to present a two level study of the technological development in Mexico in the last twelve years; at the first level to compare results with other countries, and at the second level considering the national perspective. We analysed universal indicators used to measure IT including number of computers, mobile telephone subscriptions and internet diffusion. Mexico digital development has been positive in the last decade, however there are regions that still present an important delay in their IT level of diffusion.
