Soil waterlogging is a major constraint to global crop production yet remains poorly integrated into agricultural monitoring and decision-support frameworks because waterlogging events are episodic and spatially heterogeneous, while existing modelling approaches largely address individual components of the problem in isolation. We argue that, alongside continued improvement in the representation of key processes, a major and under-addressed bottleneck lies in integrating existing modelling capabilities into an operational decision-support pipeline. Here we propose a conceptual, systems-oriented framework, intended for further development and testing rather than as an implemented decision-support system, that links spatially explicit hazard assessment, crop response simulation and multi-objective evaluation to support adaptation planning. We outline a three-stage modelling pipeline that identifies where and when waterlogging is likely to occur, evaluates alternative engineering, agronomic and genetic interventions, and quantifies trade-offs among productivity, profitability and environmental outcomes. We specify the information exchanged between stages, illustrate the pipeline with a literature-based example, and outline how it could be evaluated and how uncertainty could be handled. Finally, we identify key priorities for advancing waterlogging modelling, including improved process representation of drainage, raised beds, irrigation–groundwater interactions and other adaptation strategies, stronger integration across modelling domains, and closer alignment between modelling outputs and stakeholder needs, beginning with joint framing of the decision problem. By providing a structured pathway for integrating current and future modelling advances into decision support, this framework aims to accelerate the translation of waterlogging research into practical adaptation.
Enhancing the productivity and sustainability of rubber-based cropping systems is essential to meet the growing demand for natural rubber while minimizing negative impacts. During the immature period, the 6–7 years between planting and the onset of tapping, farmers seek to promote rapid tree growth while minimizing tree mortality to maximize the number of tappable trees at maturity. Management practices are key to achieving these objectives, especially during the first four years before canopy closure. Young rubber trees are highly vulnerable to nutrient limitations and weed competition, while the open canopy also provides opportunities for crop diversification, potentially increasing competition for resources. Understanding how farmers manage these challenges is therefore essential. Although the diversity of inter-row management has been documented in various contexts, detailed studies on technical operations specifically applied to rubber tree rows and their relationship with inter-row management remain scarce. This study presents a detailed characterization of rubber row management based on 137 semi-structured interviews, focusing on the diversity of technical operations during the first four years of the immature period in both intercropped and mono-cropped rubber-based systems across three provinces in Thailand. We established a typology of technical operations in rubber rows and compared intensities of management between rubber rows and inter-rows, considering different crop choices and management strategies in the inter-rows. A wide range of rubber row management choices was observed, both across and within provinces. Seven clusters were distinguished along two gradients of intensification associated with fertilization and weed control. Temporal adjustments were found in rubber row management, without any consistent pattern of change from year one to year four after planting. On a plot scale, it was seen that rubber rows were mostly managed independently from inter-rows in terms of fertilization, while weed control operations tended to follow similar strategies across rows and inter-rows, regardless of the crop choice in the inter-rows. This study highlights the diversity of technical operations currently used to manage rubber tree rows during the immature period across different contexts in Thailand, aligning with previous findings on inter-row management. The results provide key insights for increasing the sustainability of rubber system management during the immature period, particularly by adopting a more integrated approach between rubber rows and inter-rows.
Cover crops, cultivated for agroecological benefits, must be terminated before sowing the subsequent cash crop. Frost winterkill is a cost-effective, herbicide-free termination method of interest in conservation agriculture, where mechanical termination methods are limited and not always effective. Frost termination depends on interactions between weather and crop development stage, and affects soil nitrogen and water cycles differently from mechanical or chemical termination. Because many interacting factors are involved, simulation models can support cropping system analysis and water, nutrient and weed management decisions. Existing frost damage models developed for cereals have many parameters, limiting their transferability to cover crops. To address this gap, we developed a simplified frost damage model that simulates frost resistance temperature over time, and biomass frost damage after frost events. The model was calibrated using white mustard (Sinapis alba L.) field data from Lombardy, Northern Italy, and evaluated against a four-year dataset of satellite-derived observations. Under the conditions examined, early sowing maximised biomass production (reaching 3.0–3.5 t DM ha−1) and ensured complete frost termination. Conversely, late-sown crops remained in a frost-resistant state and survived sub-zero temperatures down to −5.6 °C. The simulation of frost-damaged biomass had a modelling efficiency of 0.93 on the calibration dataset. After calibration, the model was independently evaluated and predicted first frost damage within the reference frost window with 89% accuracy, while late predictions had a median delay of 3 d. In future work, using broader datasets, its integration in cropping system models will enable decision support under different cover crop management scenarios.
Irrigated drylands of Central Asia need to raise wheat productivity under constrained water supplies while making better use of the short summer fallow between wheat harvest and autumn/winter sowing. We combined a two-season field experiment at Karshi, comprising 13 treatments and an embedded 2 × 2 nitrogen (N) × irrigation factorial, with on-farm evaluation of five summer crops at six sites in 2023 and 2024 and APSIM simulations over 39 seasons. Identically managed controls differed by 0.244 t ha⁻¹; treatment interpretation therefore focused on responses that were reproducible across seasons. ‘Turon’ gave the largest and most consistent response, yielding 36–37% more than its matched control in both seasons. Increasing seed rate to 250 kg ha⁻¹ also increased yield by about 1.0 t ha⁻¹ across seasons. Nitrogen and irrigation interacted (P = 0.008): increasing N from 126 to 234 kg ha⁻¹ raised yield by 0.92 t ha⁻¹ under reduced irrigation but had no statistically detectable effect under increased irrigation. Combining 30% more N with 30% less irrigation increased total water productivity from 0.86 to 1.31 kg m⁻³ relative to farmers’ practice. Within the tested treatments, random forest analysis ranked variety highest (20.0% of total importance), followed by season (17.6%), seed rate (16.7%), irrigation amount (13.2%), N rate (12.4%), sowing date (12.0%), and establishment method (8.1%). Long-term simulations indicated that residue retention reduced soil evaporation by approximately 60 mm, but increased grain yield only when nitrogen supply was adequate. The feasibility of a second crop depended mainly on wheat harvest date and the duration of the summer crop. On-farm, crop durations remained similar between 2023 and 2024 for four crops; a shorter-duration pearl millet type was grown in 2024. Cereal yields were 44–64% lower in the hotter 2024 season, whereas mungbean yield remained similar. Mungbean matured in about two-thirds of seasons, whereas 118-day maize matured in fewer than 10%; early-maturing wheat extended the available window by 16 days compared with late-maturing wheat. However, adding a second crop approximately doubled or tripled annual irrigation and produced less additional grain per unit of water than wheat alone. Overall, the results show that improving productivity in irrigated drylands requires suitable varieties, balanced nitrogen and irrigation, appropriate plant density and residue management, and careful matching of wheat maturity and summer-crop duration with the available water and growing period.
