This project maps the “diaspora” from California’s most destructive wildfire event in history and explores key social determinants of relocation, adding to a much-needed conversation about vulnerability and hazard risk in wildland exurbs during an era of climate change. We use household-level consumer databases to document population relocations in the wake of the 2018 Camp Fire, which largely destroyed Paradise, California and surrounding communities. Our data show the 2022 residential locations for 8,112 households that had lived within the Camp Fire footprint in 2018. Of these households, 4,947 (61.0
The total fertility rate in rural India has fallen by half in recent decades. This paper seeks to understand the role of negative weather shocks in decreasing fertility rates in rural India. Using birth histories of a cohort of rural women and a difference-in-differences framework, I find that the average probability of birth to a woman shows a significant decline of about 1.4 percentage points in the ten years following a drought, suggesting adjustment in fertility rates by households following a weather-induced economic shock. I also find that this decline is concentrated at higher birth parities. Using an event-study framework, I further show that while part of the decline in births occurs immediately and persists in the first few years after exposure to droughts, there is also a delayed effect, with the probability of birth most visibly declining six years after the initial shock. I also find suggestive evidence that women in more drought-prone regions are more likely to report a desire for fewer children, highlighting the role of repeated environmental shocks on desired family size.
As urban temperatures rise from climate change, the burden of heat exposure is likely to be unequally distributed across neighborhoods. Prior research shows that heat varies based on neighborhood racial/ethnic composition, with people of color experiencing higher temperatures relative to Whites. Yet, previous studies of neighborhood racial/ethnic diversity and heat have been largely aspatial. A spatial approach is important in documenting specific geographic patterns in heat exposure and how the clustering of racial/ethnic groups relates to exposure disparities. We examined racial/ethnic diversity and summertime heat exposure in the Wasatch Front region of Utah in 2000 and 2020 (n = 443 tracts) using Bivariate Local Indicators of Spatial Association to identify clusters, and ANOVAs to characterize differences between clusters. In both years, diverse-hot and homogeneous-cool were the most common cluster types, mapping to spatial patterns of environmental injustice and environmental privilege. Spatial patterns of diversity and heat remained similar in 2000 and 2020, with limited evidence of attenuation of those associations between periods. We found similar socioeconomic characteristics for diverse-hot relative to diverse-cool tracts and for homogeneous-hot relative to homogeneous-cool tracts, but diverse-hot tracts had lower greenness than tracts in other cluster types. Diverse tracts had a higher percentage of people of color, lower incomes and home values, and less greenness than homogeneous tracts regardless of their summertime heat. Findings underscore the need for targeted climate adaptation that addresses the spatial and racialized nature of heat exposures. Our spatial approach allows for identification of where specific interventions would be most impactful.
Long-term climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of high-temperature weather events, which in turn affect human health and wellbeing. Warmer temperatures are reported to affect both reproductive health and behaviors, possibly reducing birth rates. In a low-fertility context, the potential negative impact that climate change might have on fertility is consequential. This study focuses on Italy, a low-fertility country disproportionately affected by climate change, with sharp regional disparities in both climate zones and economic development. Matching monthly birth registration data for the period 2003 to 2022 with E-OBS, ERA-5 and CAMS meteorological data, we analyze the relationship between heat exposure and total fertility rates in 107 Italian provinces (corresponding to the NUTS-3 classification). Results show that exposure to hot days, which are defined as days with a mean temperature above 25 °C, has a relatively immediate impact on conception probabilities as it reduces the total fertility rate nine months later. Additional analyses revealed that the largest effect of heat on fertility occurs in above-average GDP provinces and provinces with lower-than-average healthcare workforce availability.
Permanent relocation is increasingly proposed as an effective long-term strategy for coastal areas affected by recurrent flooding. While the literature on coastal relocation has been steadily growing—particularly on policy processes, financial mechanisms, and lived experiences—less attention has been given to understanding the reasoning behind relocation decisions. This study provides empirical evidence on the factors that drive willingness to relocate from a telephone survey administered in high-risk coastal settings on the Delmarva Peninsula in Maryland and Hampton Roads, Virginia. Drawing on data from 182 completed surveys, we examined prior flood exposure and reported impacts, willingness to relocate, push and pull factors, preferences for relocation destinations, and socioeconomic characteristics. The most common push factors were disastrous hurricane flooding and financial considerations (i.e., higher taxes, living costs, and insurance rates), and pull factors were low crime rates and proximity to family, friends, and healthcare services. All highly rated intervening factors were related to the relocation process, including assistance tailored to individual needs, a straightforward and transparent program implementation, the opportunity to participate in the planning process, monetary compensation, and moving assistance. The regression analysis identified nine predictors of relocation, including five push factors related to flooding and its secondary impacts on quality of life, and changes in social support. Other predictors included proximity to friends, living outside the FEMA floodplain, free legal and technical advice on moving options, and a preference for a community with conservative policies. These quantitative results can inform policy development, advance spatially explicit modeling of coastal mobility, and help design buyout programs that address comprehensive household needs while aligning with broader community land use and development goals.
