Africa¿s mean total fertility rate (TFR) of 5.1 children per woman is far higher than the TFRs of 3.2 in Asia and 2.7 in Latin America. The level of modern contraceptive use in Africa is barely 16%, compared to over 55% upon other developing country continents. Demographic transition is nonetheless currently well underway in Africa, in keeping with progress achieved in contraception. Ever since the end of the 1980s, demographic research has confirmed the beginning of fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa and its rapid progress in the Maghreb. Concurrently, most African countries are in the process of adopting population policies, following in the path of pioneering nations such as Tunisia, Kenya, and Ghana. The analysis of fertility-related policies is important to better understand how they explain a new concept of relations between development and demography, and influence the evolution of birth rates in Africa, and therefore the demographic, social, and economic histories of the continent. The discussion of the implementation of fertility-related population policies examines the first such policies as well as those created more or less directly out of crisis and economic recession.
In 1950, 28% of the world¿s population lived in cities. At that point, localities larger than 10,000 inhabitants were home to 0.7 billion people, of whom 36% were in developing countries. However, according to UN projections, the rate of urbanization will reach 47.4% in 2000, with cities housing 2.9 billion people, of whom 68.7% will be in developing countries. Africa, like other continents, is urbanizing. Although Africa is among the world¿s least urbanized regions, it is nonetheless the continent with the highest rate of urbanization. Urban population growth reached its height during the 1950s, then the urban population in the region multiplied by a factor of 10 during 1950-90, far outpacing the rate of overall population growth on the continent. However, during the 1980s and 1990s, urban growth in Africa declined sharply. The author discusses urbanization in Africa devoid of industrialization, declining rates of urban population growth in the region, the uncertain future of urbanization in Africa, and how future urbanization in Africa depends upon the role the continent will play in the global economy.
Many African countries experienced severe political crises after independence, and in a number of cases the crises had significant demographic consequences, especially for child mortality. Data based on maternity histories allowed the reconstruction of child mortality trends over the past 20-30 years in Uganda, Ghana, Rwanda, Madagascar, and Mozambique. The indicator used was the child mortality quotient (number of deaths of under-5 children per 1000 births). Uganda's child mortality declined from 227/1000 in 1960 to 154/1000 in 1970, but the trend was reversed in 1971, when Idi Amin Dada came to power, and the rate reached 204/1000 in 1982 before beginning to decline again. The level of mortality remained high, however, and was still 160/1000 in 1988. Ghana suffered a political and economic crisis during 1979-84. Child mortality rose from 130/1000 in 1978 to 175/1000 in 1983. Mortality rates began a rapid decline after structural adjustment programs were begun, possibly due to improved management of health services. The child mortality rate in Rwanda increased from around 220/1000 in 1960 to 240/1000 in 1975, before beginning a decline in the late 1970s that reached 140/1000 by 1990. The period of political stability and relative prosperity during the 15-year reign of Juvenal Habyarimana was associated with the decline. Political crises marked by student and peasant uprisings were associated with Madagascar's child mortality rate increase from about 145/1000 in 1960 to 185/1000 in 1985. Mozambique was beset by civil war after independence, in which destruction of the health infrastructure was a strategy. The child mortality rate increased from 270/1000 to 470/1000 between 1975 and 1986, a peak war year. The factors by which political crises affect mortality so profoundly remain to be explained, but particular attention should be given to studying the health sector.
A database of census and survey information on fertility and nuptiality in Africa being assembled by the French Center for Population and Development (CEPED) was the source for this analysis of changing marriage patterns. Early marriage for girls, nearly universal marriage for both sexes, rapid remarriage of reproductive-age widows and divorcees, polygamy, and a frequently large difference in the ages of the spouses are typical of African marriage. But a great variety of situations coexist. In the 1960s, the female age at first marriage was under 17.5 years on average in West Africa, while the male age was over 26. Nearly everyone married, and one-fourth to one-third of married men were polygamous. In South Africa, at the other extreme, the average age at first marriage was 20-23 for women and 26-30 for men, over 5% never married, and polygamy was rare. Nuptiality patterns were intermediate in North, Central, and East Africa. The most recent round of censuses and surveys show the geographic differences to be shrinking. Average age at first marriage for women is increasing everywhere and often exceeds 19 years. It remains lower than 17.5 in only two countries. The increase amounts to at least a half year for 30 countries and over 1 year for 15. Marriage remains nearly universal except in South Africa. Male age at marriage is rising more slowly than female age, causing the average age gap to decline. Economic difficulties and unemployment appear to play a significant role in the delay of marriage, with increased female school attendance also a factor, although secondary and higher education for females in sub-Saharan Africa is too uncommon to have perceptible effects on the national scale. In North Africa, the age at first birth has increased in tandem with increasing marriage age, but in sub-Saharan Africa the relationship has been less marked. In Lome, for example, the increasing age at first marriage for females has had no effect on age at first birth. The proportions of premarital births have increased significantly in some areas. Increasing age at first marriage is just one of the changes apparently underway in African marriage patterns, as traditions are adapted to the changing demands of modern life.
The main task of CEPED, the French Center on Population and Development, is to deal with the relations between population and development. The center in this paper questions the nature of the demographic consequences of adjustment policy and reforms in developing countries. There is no doubt that such policies had important social consequences. The dearth of available statistical data, however, makes it difficult and even pointless to try and dissociate the effects of adjustment policies from the economic crises which put them in place. CEPED asked a group of experts to offer their views on to what extent the global economic crisis and the structural adjustment policies effected during the early 1980s affected demographic trends over the long term in sub-Saharan Africa. Whatever effects the economic crisis and the structural adjustment policies had upon the continent will remain to be felt for years to come. Further research is therefore warranted.
