India's attainment of below-replacement fertility marks a major demographic milestone, yet it presents a paradox when viewed against international experience. In most countries that successfully harnessed a demographic dividend-particularly in East Asia and parts of Europe-fertility decline emerged alongside broad improvements in education, health, women's agency, labour-market opportunities, and structural economic transformation. In contrast, India's fertility transition was unusually rapid, compressed into a few decades, and was driven to a significant extent by state-led family-planning interventions, especially female sterilisation, rather than by comparable advances in human development. This divergence weakened the conventional linkage between fertility decline and socioeconomic transformation.
