The author analyzes demographic trends in rural areas of Colombia for the period 1951-1985, noting a large decline in fertility, improved life expectancy, and trends in internal migration. He also examines changes in the age and sex structure of the rural population and discusses the implications of these changes.
Levels of interdependence and metropolitanization in Bogota, Colombia, are analyzed. Recent trends in population, employment, and housing are first outlined. Comparisons are then made between Bogota and the country as a whole in the areas of socio-demographic and economic development, public finances, and production. The impact of urban growth and increased demands for goods and services on the relative importance of Bogota is considered.
Demographers have identified 3 phases in the evolution of human population growth: 1) high mortality and high fertility resulting in very slow growth, 2) declining mortality and high fertility, resulting in rapid growth, and 3) declining mortality and fertility, resulting in slower growth. From the beginning of the century until the 1930s, Colombia was in the 1st phase, while the greatest mortality declines were registered from 1930-60. Fertility did not decline commensurately, and from 1951-64 the rate of population increase was 3.14%. The National Fertility Survey in 1969 and the 1973 census indicated that the country had at last begun its fertility decline. The 1969 survey showed that the total fertility rate (TFR) had dropped from 7.0 in the early 1960s to 6.0 in 1967-68, with fertility declining in both rural and urban areas. The 1973 census showed a rate of growth of 2.8% and an average number of children/woman of 4.7, showing that the fertility decline was structural and reflected profound changes in the values, norms, and attitudes regarding children of the Colombian population. Urbanization, the increased educational level and labor force participation of women, and the influence of the mass media in propagating the values of a consumer society are factors in the reduction of family size. Fertility differentials by region and social group have been declining progressively. The TFR in 1960-64 was 7.0 overall, 6.1 in urban areas, and 7.9 in rural areas, while in 1980 it was 3.6 overall, 3.0 in urban areas, and 5.1 in rural areas. In 1968-69, the TFR was 7.8 in the Atlantic region, 7.9 in the Oriental, 6.8 in the Central, 5.9 in the Pacific, and 4.5 in Bogota, while in 1980 it was 4.1 in the Atlantic, 4.0 in the Oriental, 3.5 in the Central, 3.3 in the Pacific, and 2.8 in Bogota. The number of women using family planning programs increased from 83 in 1965 to 1,790,484 in 1980. The proportion using contraception increased from 53% in 1976 to 55% in 1980. The TFR at the end of the century is expected to be 2.4.
Population estimates and projections for Colombia are presented for the period 1973-2003. The data are shown for the country as a whole, the 23 departments and the national territories, and the 30 major cities. These projections have been compiled using the component method and data taken primarily from the 1973 census. An analysis of the resulting projections is also presented, and some implications are considered.
