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    Risk Analysis

    Risk Analysis

    JournalISSN 0272-4332eISSN 1539-6924中科院 医学 3区

    年发文量

    研究主题

    论文(6388)

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    1NewWhen Scientific Uncertainty is Linked to Lower Information Avoidance: Motivational Pathways to Public Engagement with Climate Risk Information
    Soo Jung Hong

    ABSTRACT This study examines how scientific uncertainty is associated with both appetitive and aversive motivations, as well as its direct and indirect associations with risk information avoidance (RIA). Drawing on Liu and Chen's (2026) appetitive–aversive motivational framework, based on the Planned Risk Information Avoidance (PRIA) model, we investigate how uncertainty relates to information avoidance through risk perception, perceived information insufficiency, informational efficacy, information overload, information‐seeking norms, and negative emotions. Using structural equation modeling with a US adult sample, the findings indicate that scientific uncertainty is negatively associated with information avoidance and is linked to multiple motivational pathways. Specifically, higher scientific uncertainty is associated with greater risk perceptions and information insufficiency, and with lower levels of information overload, which in turn correspond to reduced avoidance intentions. These findings provide insight into the role of scientific uncertainty in shaping RIA, highlighting its potential to reduce avoidance in the context of climate change.

    2026
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    2NewRisk‐Oriented Differentiated Governance for Ambiguous Information
    Peikun Ni,Jianming Zhu, Hongzhou Zhang

    ABSTRACT The rapid advancement of generative artificial intelligence has led to an exponential increase in false information, especially ambiguous information. Hampered by resource constraints, conventional governance approaches fall short of enabling efficient and precise risk management. In response, this paper innovatively proposes a risk‐oriented tiered governance framework tailored to ambiguous information. Specifically, we quantify epistemic uncertainty via multi‐level semantic features, combine it with network propagation features to determine latent influence scores, and construct a risk function capturing their synergy. Critical and acceptable boundaries are introduced to categorize ambiguous information into discrete risk levels, tier‐specific governance strategies are devised, and a propagation throttling (limiting each user's successful forwards per ambiguous information) strategy is innovatively proposed for medium‐risk information. Finally, we simulate differentiated governance strategies across risk levels of ambiguous information, systematically assess governance effectiveness, and offer a comparative discussion grounded in fairness and ethics. This study offers an operational analytical framework for refined risk governance of ambiguous information, contributes methodological innovations in risk quantification modeling and tiered governance strategies, and provides theoretical support and practical guidance for risk management authorities in designing differentiated measures.

    2026
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    3NewGeo‐Setting Risk Assessment in Eurasia: A Multidimensional Framework and Strategies
    Jing Zhang,Suocheng Dong, Jingwen Li, Zeqi Zhao

    ABSTRACT Amid intensifying geopolitical tensions and climate‐related pressures, geo‐setting risk has become increasingly multidimensional. This analysis of geo‐setting risk in 16 Eurasian countries from 2010 to 2023, using a composite framework integrating regional geopolitical, political, economic, social, and ecological indicators, revealed marked spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Ukraine, Armenia, the Russian Federation, Georgia, and Azerbaijan were identified as high‐comprehensive‐risk countries, whereas other countries displayed distinct vulnerabilities across specific dimensions in 2023. The findings suggest that Eurasian geo‐setting risk cannot be reduced to the Russia–Ukraine conflict alone but reflects the combined influence of conflict exposure, governance conditions, economic structure, social pressure, and ecological constraints. A two‐dimensional typology linking comprehensive risk to the dominant mechanisms is proposed to support comparative risk profiling and differentiated governance discussions.

    2026
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    4NewEstimation of Excess Inhalation Non‐Cancer and Cancer Risk from Volatile Organic Compound Mixtures in New York City Nail Salons
    A. Michael Ierardi, Rachel L. Thompson, Samantha Fisher, Kimberly Anderson, Jean Grassman,Brian Pavilonis

    ABSTRACT Nail salon workers are acutely and chronically exposed to mixtures of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), yet health risks in New York City (NYC) salons have not been systematically assessed. We performed an occupational risk assessment using integrated real‐time total VOC (TVOC) monitoring and chemical‐specific sampling of 11 VOCs across five NYC salons. Median and peak exposures and their 95th percentile (upper‐bound) values were used in non‐cancer and cancer risk models using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Deterministic non‐cancer risk modeling indicated hazard indices (HIs) were generally below the benchmark value of 1, with exceedances observed only using upper‐bound exposures in the salon with the highest VOC concentrations. The probabilistic non‐cancer assessment showed a similar pattern, with some salons having non‐negligible probabilities of HI exceedance despite median HIs below 1. Deterministic and probabilistic benzene cancer risk assessments indicated exceedances of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) de minimis benchmark under multiple exposure scenarios. Although VOC concentrations were below occupational exposure limits (OELs), incorporating exposure variability and uncertainty identified elevated non‐cancer and cancer risks under certain scenarios. Previous research has linked nail salon work to adverse health effects, including respiratory symptoms and developmental and reproductive effects, suggesting that current OELs may not adequately protect this workforce. Our results highlight the need for improved exposure limits, chemical mixture risk assessment methods, and health protections for nail salon workers.

    2026
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    5NewVirtual Flood Experience Enhances Preparedness Through Emotional and Neural Engagement
    Toshio Fujimi,Takanori Kochiyama,Wataru Sato,Masahide Watanabe

    ABSTRACT As climate change intensifies flood risks, strengthening individual preparedness is essential for sustainable societies. This study tested whether first‐person three‐dimensional computer graphics (3DCG) flood videos can complement official flood maps in motivating preparedness. We used these materials as operationalizations of experiential and descriptive information, respectively. In a preregistered web experiment with 1000 participants, those who viewed flood videos showed a small but statistically significant increase in preparedness intentions compared with those who viewed flood maps. Mediation analyses showed that, among the measured psychological variables, only fear had a significant indirect effect, suggesting that stimulus‐evoked fear helped explain this increase. We also conducted a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study with 45 participants using a within‐subjects design. Flood videos elicited greater right amygdala activation than flood maps, consistent with fear‐related processing. Together, these findings provide convergent behavioral and neural evidence that first‐person 3DCG flood videos evoke stronger fear‐related responses than flood maps and that subjective fear helps account for their effect on preparedness intentions. The results suggest that visually vivid flood videos may complement map‐based communication by increasing emotional salience and promoting flood‐preparedness intentions.

    2026
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    高被引作者

    作者引用发文
    Paul Slovic2886343
    Michael Siegrist1079749
    Ortwin Renn1051717
    Baruch Fischhoff725130
    Roger E. Kasperson (Roger Kasperson)681810
    Melissa L. Finucane64213
    Donald Macgregor63914
    Robert Goble62969
    Jx Kasperson62132
    Samuel Ratick60474

    高产作者

    作者引用发文
    Rk White396223
    Michael R. Greenberg1503121
    Karen Lowrie71094
    Terje Aven243668
    Kimberly M. Thompson297965
    Tony Cox258754
    Seth Guikema203752
    Michael Siegrist1079749
    Branden B. Johnson312944
    Charles Haas214643

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