Based on the neural network approach, the decomposition of the index of social mood in Russia for the period 2004-2024 was carried out and their dynamics for this period was modeled. The following issues are discussed: (a) the nature of the social mood' shocks in Russia, based on their connection with the concepts of politics of memory, superpower and national idea; (b) the problem of ambivalence in the role of events and factors shaping social mood, (c) advantages and limitations of modeling and forecasting social mood based on neural networks approach. The possibility of decomposing the index of social mood into components of the economic well-being, comparative success in country development compared to the reference system of countries and epochs for Russians, and the factor of the Russian "superpower", well approximated by indicators of military spending and the degree of openness of society to Western countries, is demonstrated. A neural network model is proposed that makes it possible to predict the dynamics of social mood based on universal (i.e., unrelated to the context of specific events) variables. The predictive power of the model is tested using the case of predicting the shock and subsequent dynamics of social mood in the period 2022-2024.
This article analyzes the causes of the spiritual crisis of modern society and puts forward a hypothesis about the future historical fate of humanity through the prism of the "clash of civilizations" between the Euro-Atlantic, globalist West and the trend towards building a multipolar world. The intensifying civilizational contradictions between the two fundamental vectors of human historical development are examined not so much from a socio-economic or geopolitical perspective, but rather from a semantically rich, Russian religious-philosophical perspective, based on a fundamental distinction between the concepts of "globalization" and "globality." A possible solution to the current crisis is proposed-a religious-spiritual one, the essence of which lies in overcoming the human-divine and anti-human globalist ideology with Christian humanism (globality), a legacy of Russian spiritual culture grounded in ontological personalism.
The materials of the discussion on approaches to the study of ego documents and the practice of their application in Russian sociological research are presented. They were discussed at the round table of the Institute of Sociology of the FCTAS of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in connection with the 80th anniversary of Natalya N. Kozlova, a prominent Russian scientist in this field. The theoretical and methodological origins of this research area, the contribution of N.N. Kozlova to their development and the peculiarities of the formation of a scientific research school in the study of Soviet and Russian society through the analysis of "human documents" were discussed; methodological approaches to the qualitative analysis and interpretation of the "naive" text, their ethical principles; to the study of modern standardized personal documents, as well as new forms of diary entries using the example of video blogging. The application of these approaches has been examined using empirical research examples from a broad historical perspective: social mobility of Russian diplomats in the first half of the 20th century through the analysis of biographical information and memoirs; letters "to power" of the Soviet period concerning leisure practices of that time; potential, current results and prospects of CV analysis in social mobility research, online blogs.
The second part of the study presents the problem of the growing volume of legislative prohibitions in Russia in recent years, supported by administrative and criminal penalties for noncompliance. Examples of legislative initiatives show how the negative effects of prohibitions are compounded by uncertainty in their formulation and the possibility of arbitrary interpretation. It is proved that the scalable practice of including norms on liability for new types of offenses in administrative and criminal legislation is not accompanied by a proportional increase in the staffing of regulatory, law enforcement and judicial authorities, as well as their additional funding. All this leads to a distortion of the declared objectives of legal policy, the expansion of objective prerequisites for selective enforcement, abuse of authority and corruption. Proposals on optimizing legislative activity and removing unreasonable and ineffective prohibitions from legislation are formulated and substantiated.
The article is devoted to a comprehensive study of the processes of forming mutual moods and perceptions of Russia and China over the past 25 years. The main problem is the need to understand the achieved level of stability of the positive image of each country among the population of the other country, as well as the analysis of the influence of media sources on the dynamics of the internal perception of interstate interaction. The purpose of the study is an empirical justification for the choice between hypotheses about the systemic nature of factors that contribute to the formation of positive relations between peoples, or about the nature of this relationship. The work uses interdisciplinary research methods: a systematic review of sociological survey data, content analysis, correlation analysis. Particular attention is paid to the systematic formation of positive sentiments, checking their stability and causal autonomy from political propaganda. The novelty of the study lies in proving the relative sustainability of the positive attitude of public opinion, as well as in demonstrating the significant autonomy of this attitude from media sentiment. The relevance of the work is due to modern international politics, the need to build trust between countries and the development of effective communication strategies. It was concluded that positive attitudes between countries are the result of long-term changes in sentiment. However, it is likely that the perception of Russia in China is developing independently of media coverage and requires more targeted efforts to form a positive image.
