Trends in fertility policy, fertility, and population growth in East Germany are examined for the period 1970-1989. The failure of pronatalist policies is noted, and the accuracy of the available data is assessed. Some comparisons with West Germany are also included.
Population forecasts for East Germany are presented. Aspects considered include population size, fertility, geographic distribution of the population, immigration, and age structure. The discrepancy between forecasts made in 1968 and actual trends is noted, and the socioeconomic impact of such trends is discussed.
The interrelationships among population growth, underdevelopment, and the preservation of peace are considered. The author first argues that the dilemma of developing countries is not simply population growth but population growth in the absence of the regulating and stabilizing forces need to employ and nourish its numbers. Among the topics discussed are the global history and current trends of population growth, natural resources, demographic transitions, social change and its consequences in third world countries, malnutrition, and the growth of slums in the nuclear age. He also discusses the increased involvement of developing countries in the arms race.
This paper is a Marxist contribution to demographic transition theory, with emphasis on the need to distinguish between a Socialist and a capitalist type of population reproduction. A theoretical outline of different types of population reproduction and reproductive behavior is presented, and the possibilities for interdisciplinary research combining the perspectives of demography and sociology are discussed. The extent to which the German Democratic Republic has undergone a transition to a Socialist type of population reproduction is then considered.
Spatial aspects of recent population trends in the German Democratic Republic are reviewed. Consideration is given to the spatial distribution of population, regional and rural-urban differences in fertility, and the demographic characteristics of internal migration. Policy implications are also noted.
Selected theoretical and methodological aspects of the demographic transition are discussed. Topics considered include the circumstances under which the continuity of population change is broken and the transition phase begins, the general characteristics of the transition and the factors that distinguish it from the "normal" process of population change throughout history, and the different types of transition that are occurring during the modern era as well as the reasons for these differences. Throughout the paper, population change is viewed as a process occurring within the context of specific systems of production. Both the historical experience of developed countries and the contemporary situation in developing countries are considered.
The paper demonstrates the equalization of reproductive behavior on the part of the rural and urban populations on the outcome of social change in the course of the past 10 years in the countryside. This development exerts a lasting influence on demographic reproduction conditions. In 1978, the individual community-size groups showed a fairly uniform fertility level. Towns with 50,000-100,000 inhabitants, in which there was a remarkable fertility increase after 1975, were the exception. From this, the author concludes that apart from the multitude of sociopolitical steps taken, specific regional influences on the development of natality are growing rapidly. (author's)
