Caught in a Downward Spiral? the Relative Attractiveness Deficit of Vocational Education and Training

Vocational education and training (VET) is hailed for easing skill shortages and fostering inclusion. However, little is known about the factors influencing the choice between VET and general education. We conducted a vignette experiment with more than 11,500 respondents in seven European countries, asking respondents to assign fictitious 15-year-olds either to VET or to general education based on achievement, motivation, and sociodemographic profiles. Respondents consistently channeled students with low grades and low motivation into VET. This bias weakened but persisted among respondents who view VET as offering favorable labor market prospects. Boys, working-class youth, and adolescents outside large cities were also steered toward VET, although achievement effects outweighed ascriptive ones. These patterns hold across countries and respondent subgroups, indicating that VET is widely perceived as the less desirable educational pathway. Our findings suggest that VET is caught in a downward spiral in which the relative unattractiveness of VET and academic drift reinforce each other.