Greenland and Rare Earth Elements: Geological Potential, Regulatory Constraints, and Economic Realities in the Arctic

Greenland has emerged as a focal point in international debates on critical mineral supply security, driven by its endowment of rare earth elements (REEs), its strategic position in the Arctic, and its potential relevance to Western supply-chain autonomy. This article provides an integrated assessment of Greenland's two most advanced REE projects—Kvanefjeld and Tanbreez—combining geological characterisation, project-level economic analysis, supply chain architecture, and regulatory appraisal to evaluate the conditions under which identified resources could translate into effective supply. Drawing on analyses by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS, 2024), the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2023), and the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC, 2023), together with project feasibility data and peer-reviewed literature, the study identifies a "triple constraint" comprising: a restrictive uranium-co-mineralisation regime —confirmed and hardened by the Government of Greenland's final rejection, on 26 June 2026, of Greenland Minerals' application to renew the Kvanefjeld exploration licence—an absence of industrial infrastructure, and the global concentration of REE separation and refining capacity in China (approximately 85% of global output). A structured scenario analysis spanning 2026–2040 evaluates three development pathways—integrated production, option preservation, and midstream-alliance-first—each defined with a single, internally consistent unit of analysis and benchmarked qualitatively against analogous projects (Lynas Mt Weld, MP Materials Mountain Pass, Strange Lake) rather than presented as precise financial forecasts. Results indicate that Greenland's near-term contribution is best understood as strategic optionality—informed by, but not a formal quantitative application of, real options theory—rather than shovel-ready supply. Policy recommendations emphasise regulatory clarity on uranium co-products, coordinated investment in allied midstream processing capacity, modular infrastructure development, and meaningful engagement with Inuit self-determination and free, prior and informed consent (FPIC) standards as prerequisites for converting Arctic mineral endowment into reliable and legitimate strategic supply.