Stakeholder-guided, Model-Based Scenarios for a Climate- and Water-Smart Electricity Transition in Ghana and Burkina Faso

In support of West Africa's potential energy transition under climate change, an international team of scientists and a wide range of local stakeholders in Ghana and Burkina Faso jointly assessed different mitigation and adaptation pathways for energy and water supply and demand, including their implications for achieving SDGs, in a transdisciplinary approach. They iteratively co-developed a range of future scenarios based on i) stakeholder knowledge and priorities, ii) countries' national plans, and iii) simulations with a set of complementary energy and water models. Unlike current national plans, the more ambitious scenarios indicate that the projected rapid increase in electricity demand could be met almost entirely from renewables, but that a diversification beyond hydropower will be necessary. Phasing out fossil fuels would bring West African countries's energy policies in line with Paris Agreement targets and generate additional socio-economic and environmental co-benefits.