Twenty Years of Europol Strategic Analysis and the Harmonisation of EU Criminal Justice: A Meta-Analysis [version 1; Peer Review: 2 Approved]

The objective of this scientific and research article is to conduct a meta-analysis of Europol’s strategic intelligence over the past two decades. The analysis covers all relevant Europol assessments from the 2005 Organised Crime Report to the 2025 Serious and Organised Crime Threat Assessment. The article identifies a progressive transformation, since descriptive reporting has evolved into an intelligence-led and predictive analysis. This progressive transformation reflects a broader institutional shift in EU criminal policy as well. Moreover, the article explores how the successive iterations of Europol’s threat assessments have functioned as soft law instruments and they have supported convergence in enforcement priorities and legal harmonisation. The originality of the article lies in the systematic and longitudinal comparison of relevant Europol reports (2005–2025), including an assessment of their epistemic and policy impact on EU criminal law. The findings of this article contribute to both academic debate and policy-making, because they demonstrate how strategic intelligence can become a driver of harmonisation and governance in the Area of Freedom, Security and Justice.