UNDERSTANDING THE LONG-TERM EVOLUTION OF THE COUPLED NATURAL-HUMAN COASTAL SYSTEM: THE FUTURE OF THE U.S. GULF COAST

The U.S. Gulf Coast provides a valuable setting to study deeply connected natural and human interactions and feedbacks that have led to a complex, interconnected coastal system that is under increased pressure from accelerating environmental stressors such as sea level rise, intensifying hurricanes, and coastal development. Promoting the resilience and maintaining the habitability of the Gulf Coast into the future will need improved understanding of the coupled natural-human coastal system, as well as effective sharing of this understanding in support of decision-making and policies. This report from the National Academies identifies three critical areas of research that encompass high-priority gaps in scientific knowledge that, if addressed, will increase understanding of the coupled natural-human system along the Gulf Coast. Critical Area 1: How will coastal landforms and coastal ecosystems along the Gulf Coast respond to rapidly changing conditions (both natural and human induced), especially given the expectation for continued relative sea level rise acceleration? Critical Area 2: How will human settlement and economic activity along the Gulf Coast respond to evolving coastal landforms and ecosystems under rapidly changing conditions? Critical Area 3: How can improved understanding of both near- and long-term evolution of the Gulf Coast coupled natural-human system be applied to inform stakeholder decisions made at local, state, and regional scales? How does the coupled natural-human system evolve when decision-making is updated as scientific understanding advances? The 12 research gaps are categorized into natural (physical and ecological) processes, the human system, and the coupled natural-human system. A research agenda undertaken to meet these gaps should focus on interactions and feedbacks critical to coupled system evolution; support collaborative, multidisciplinary research; encourage integrated observational and modeling efforts; offer longitudinal, multi-decadal research opportunities; deliver accessible, updated data and model results; and coordinate at a high level. Barriers to and opportunities for effective communication between scientists and stakeholders are also discussed.