The problem of earthquake forecasting remains challenging, especially considering strong seismic events (M≥8). Strong earthquakes occur most often along the fault planes due to large-amplitude displacements of the contacting blocks. In such cases, the physical parameters of the earthquake foci generation process are estimated on the basis of the concepts describing the destruction of solids. In this paper, we present a new tectonophysical model of strong earthquake foci in the continental lithosphere. In this model, an earthquake focus is viewed as a body whose rheological properties are changing over time throughout the entire seismic period, including the moment of the seismic event initiation, its occurrence and the subsequent stress release in of the geological medium. In the period when a future earthquake source develops and grows, the physical properties of the host rocks are assumed to change substantially, and both the viscosity and the relative shear strength decreases. At the moment of time when a strong earthquake takes place, the viscosity of the rocks in its focus is at its minimum value and thus favorable for high-amplitude interblock shearing under the current regional stress and unchanged geodynamic factors. A decrease in the viscosity is facilitated by an increase in the fault length and leads to weakening of the geological medium and decreases its strength properties. When the earthquake occurs, the viscosity of the rocks in its source is assumed significantly lower than the dynamic viscosity of the lithosphere and not less than one or two orders below the viscosity of the interblock seismically active medium containing the source. It is most likely that at the moment of time when an earthquake takes place, the viscosity in its source is 1017–1019 Pa·s. In our approach, the parameter of viscosity is introduced into the physics of earthquake foci, and the time factor is taken into account when studying the process of earthquake preparation and occurrence, which can be an important step to gaining more knowledge for forecasting of the strongest seismic events (M≥8).

We performed a tectonophysical analysis of earthquake frequency–size relationship types for large Central Asian earthquakes in the regions of dynamical influence due to major earthquake-generating faults based on data for the last 100 years. We identified four types of frequency–size curves, depending on the presence/absence of characteristic earthquakes and the presence or absence of a downward bend in the tail of the curve. This classification by the shape of the tail in frequency–size relationships correlates well with the values of the maximum observed magnitude. Thus, faults of the first type (there are characteristic earthquakes, but no downward bend) with Mmax ≥ 8.0 are classified as posing the highest seismic hazard; faults with characteristic earthquakes and a bend, and with Mmax = 7.5–7.9, are treated as rather hazardous; faults of the third type with Mmax = 7.1–7.5 are treated as posing potential hazard; and lastly, faults with a bend, without characteristic earthquakes, and with a typical magnitude Mmax ≤ 7.0, are classified as involving little hazard. The tail types in frequency–size curves are interpreted using the model of a nonlinear multiplicative cascade. The model can be used to treat different tail types as corresponding to the occurrence/nonoccurrence of nonlinear positive and negative feedback in earthquake rupture zones, with this feedback being responsible for the occurrence of earthquakes with different magnitudes. This interpretation and clustering of earthquake-generating faults by the behavior the tail of the relevant frequency–size plot shows raises the question about the physical mechanisms that underlie this behavior. We think that the occurrence of great earthquakes is related to a decrease in effective strength (viscosity) in the interblock space of faults at a scale appropriate to the rupture zone size.

Based on the data on seismically active faults of Central Asia, the authors apply the Gutenberg‐Richter law to study regularities of seismicity in large seismically active fault zones. Cumulative recurrence plots are constructed for earthquakes recorded only in the areas of active dynamic influence of the specified faults. Special attention is paid to changes in slope angles of the recurrence plots at the transition to the area of strong magnitudes. It is noted that the right‐side end of the plot (i.e. distribution tail) becomes steeper or less steep relative to the main distribution for small magnitudes. The degree of non‐linearity and the forms of the recurrence plot tail are used to rank the faults of Central Asia by potential relative seismic hazard. It is shown that the highest seismic hazard is associated with the faults that control earthquakes with magnitudes M≥7.5, which recurrence plots show a trend to decrease the slope angle of the regression line in the area of strong magnitudes. It is highly probable that such earthquakes may reoccur in the fault zones in the next 50–100 years.

The layer forming the Earth’s solid cover is considered to be a uniformly cooling mantle body of low viscosity involved in the convection process. Its cooling is accompanied by the formation of Rayleigh–Benard cells transformed into primary blocks. Their dimensions and dynamics in the subsequent evolution of the Earth’s lithosphere were repeatedly disturbed by superglobal geodynamic cycles involving changes in the area and dynamics of the blocks, some of which were partially absorbed by the mantle, while others were generated for the first time up to the current state. The variably ranked lithosphere blocks transformed into linear dimensions were arranged in a logical series of lithosphere destruction: from convection of the cooling Earth and initial block divisibility of the protolithosphere to its recent plate tectonics and intensive variably ranked fragmentation and fracturing of the plates under the conditions of solid body fragmentation. Convection in the mantle is a genetic endogenic source of the first protolithosphere divisibility. Megablock and subsequent lithosphere divisibility are consistent with the process of crushing of a solid body.

汾渭裂谷带由2组走向不同的盆地组成:以拉张为主的NEE向盆地(或盆地系)和以右旋走滑为主的NNE向盆地.相邻NEE向盆地(或盆地系)间的连接区由NNE向盆地和地垒组成.汾渭裂谷带南、北段总体走向NEE并以拉张为主,中段总体走向NNE且具走滑兼拉张的性质.汾渭裂谷带各段具有以下特征:各裂谷段新生代盆地按照先南、再北、后中段的时间顺序形成;盆地连接区规模依中、北、南段递减;忻定盆地东端平行于裂谷带北段走向延伸成NEE向,西端沿逆时针方向旋转成NNE向,而临汾盆地与忻定盆地呈近似反对称的展布.但是已有模拟实验或数值实验均无法解释这些特征,原因在于它们忽略了裂谷分段性对NEE向盆地及其连接区演化的控制作用.文中结合已有地质调查资料,基于黏土实验和数字图像相关方法,观测了在基底的分段右旋剪切拉张作用下上覆黏土盖层的裂陷过程,并对黏土盖层表面的变形场时空演化进行了定量分析.实验再现了汾渭裂谷带的主要构造特征,结果表明:1)裂谷带南、北、中段偏斜角(裂谷带两侧块体的相对运动方向与裂谷带走向之间的夹角)的依次递减是造成NEE向盆地的形成时间和连接区规模在各裂谷段呈现上述特征的原因.2)相邻NEE向盆地的相互作用是形成具有右旋剪切拉张的NNE向连接区的原因.3)相邻裂谷段之间的相互作用可能是造成忻定盆地和临汾盆地特殊构造特征的原因.因此,汾渭裂谷带各段的构造差异主要源于各段偏斜角的差异.但模型还存在不足之处,其中值得进一步完善的是模型未考虑汾渭裂谷带先存构造的影响,因而未能详细模拟汾渭裂谷带南、北段内盆地的构造特征.

Vibrations of the Earth crust and variations in the physical fields of the Earth atmosphere and ionosphere are continuously monitored by a variety of techniques and specialized facilities across the world. Nevertheless, most catastrophic earthquakes even in this century have occurred in “incidental” or “unexpected” places in “unpredicted” time. Earthquake predictions have errors as the current knowledge of focal mechanisms of strong (M≥8) earthquakes is still insufficient. It is believed today that the most common source of earthquakes is movement of rock blocks along a fault/megafracture. Such movements take place in a stepwise pattern with high or reduced friction, depending on the presence of fluids, hitches on the fault planes and other factors. Modern seismic forecasting is based on the concept of precursors.The author considers geological and geophysical settings in areas of dynamic influence of faults, wherein 8>М>7.5 earthquakes took place. Based on earthquake recurrence curves constructed for such areas, four tectonic criteria for formation of strong earthquake sources are identified: structural (large seismically active faults), kinematic (large amplitudes of the fault wing’s displacements), rheological (physical properties of the fault infill material, such as low viscosity of the intra-fault medium) and dynamic (high rates of the fault wing’s displacements) criteria. These criteria should be in the focus of quantitative studies in order to provide a solid scientific basis for long-term forecasting of strong earthquakes. Curves constructed for the criteria can show changes in the physics of earthquake foci in case of strong seismic events.With account of the tectonophysical features of faults associated with strong seismic events, the following conclusions are drawn. (1) In the continental lithosphere, catastrophic earthquakes (M≥8) occur in areas of dynamic influence of the major faults in the lithosphere in case of relatively high amplitudes of displacements of boundary blocks (i.e. fault wings). (2) In the relatively stable stress field, high amplitude displacements take place in case of reduced viscosity/quasi-viscosity of the medium comprising the internal structure of faults. (3) Reduced viscosity of the intra-fault medium is related to the physical conditions of transition of rocks in fault zones (mainly along the fault planes) in the state of quasi-plastic or plastic flow (unilateral pressure in excess of hydrostatic pressure, and relatively decreasing strength properties of the intra-fault medium with increasing length of the fault wings). (4) Reduced viscosity of the fault zone leads to an increase in the displacement rate of the fault wings in the constant stress field. The latter factor is the main one, transforming seismically active faults with M≤7.5 seismic events into faults of similar characteristics, but with earthquakes of higher energy, M≥8. Focal mechanisms of such earthquakes are associated with conditions for a potential increase of the displacement amplitude regardless of the presence of fluids, hitches on the fault planes and other poorly predictable factors. In-depth studies of the internal structure of faults with M≥8 earthquakes, their foci, conditions of the temporal regime of the seismic process before and after strong seismic events can discover a key to understanding the origin of earthquake sources, the criteria of energy release, and the occurrence of earthquakes with maximum energy. Further steps to develop the geological and geophysical (including tectonic) criteria for prediction of strong earthquakes should be focused on more detailed research of seismic zones wherein strong earthquakes were recorded.

The paper presents the first tectonophysical reconstruction of initial divisibility of the protolithosphere as a result of convection in the cooling primitive mantle. Initial division of the protolithosphere into separate masses, i.e. prototypes of the blocks, and their size are predetermined by the emerging Rayleigh-Benard convection cells. In studies of geology and geodynamics, the Rayleigh-Benard convection cells were first referred to as a factor to explain the formation of initial continental cores. Considering the Rayleigh-Benard cells and their structural relics can help clarify initial divisibility of the protolithosphere and the origin of the major lithospheric plates, i.e. prototypes of continents. In our opinion, the initial mega-scale block structure of the protolithosphere and the emerging lithosphere were predetermined by the Rayleigh-Benard cells as they were preserved in the emerging lithosphere and their lower boundaries corresponded to the core-mantle boundary, i.e. one of the major discontinuities of the planet. Our theoretical estimations are in good agreement with the number and sizes of the Earth's theorized first supercontinents, Vaalbara and Ur. In our tectonophysical discussion of the formation of the lithospheric block structure, we analyze in detail the map of modern lithospheric plates [Bird, 2003] in combination with the materials from [Sherman et al., 2000]. In the hierarchy of the blocks comprising the contemporary lithosphere, which sizes are widely variable, two groups of blocks are clearly distinguished. The first group includes megablocks with the average geometric size above 6500 km. Their formation is related to convection in the Earth mantle at the present stage of the geodynamic evolution of the Earth, as well as at all the previous stages, including the earliest one, when the protolithosphere emerged. The second group includes medium-sized blocks with the average geometric size of less than 4500 km and those with minimum sizes, such as rock lumps. They reflect primarily the degradation of megablocks as a result of their destruction due to high stresses in excess of the tensile strength of the medium. This group may also include blocks which formation is related to convection in the upper mantle layer, asthenosphere. There are grounds to assume that through the vast intermediate interval of geologic time, including supercycles of Kenorlend, Rodin, and and partically Pangea, the formation of the large lithospheric blocks was controlled by convection, and later on, they were 'fragmented' under the physical laws of destruction of solid bodies. However, it is difficult to clearly distinguish between the processes that predetermine the hierarchy of formation of the block structures of various origins – sizes of ancient lithospheric blocks cannot be estimated unambiguously.Thus, mantle convection is a genetic endogenous source of initial divisibility of the cooling upper cover of the Earth and megablock divisibility of the lithosphere in the subsequent and recent geodynamic development stages. At the present stage, regular patterns of the lithospheric block divisibility of various scales are observed at all the hierarchic levels. The areas of the lithospheric megaplates result from regular changes of convective processes in the mantle, which influenced the formation of plates and plate kinematics. Fragmentation of the megaplates into smaller ones is a result of destruction of the solid lithosphere under the physical laws of destruction of solid bodies under the impact of high stresses.

Studying locations of strong earthquakes (М≥8) in space and time in Central Asia has been among top prob-lems for many years and still remains challenging for international research teams. The authors propose a new ap-proach that requires changing the paradigm of earthquake focus – solid rock relations, while this paradigm is a basis for practically all known physical models of earthquake foci. This paper describes the first step towards developing a new concept of the seismic process, including generation of strong earthquakes, with reference to specific geodynamic features of the part of the study region wherein strong earthquakes were recorded in the past two centuries. Our analysis of the locations of М≥8 earthquakes shows that in the past two centuries such earthquakes took place in areas of the dynamic influence of large deep faults in the western regions of Central Asia. In the continental Asia, there is a clear submeridional structural boundary (95–105°E) between the western and eastern regions, and this is a factor controlling localization of strong seismic events in the western regions. Obviously, the Indostan plate’s pressure from the south is an energy source for such events. The strong earthquakes are located in a relatively small part of the territory of Central Asia (i.e. the western regions), which is significantly different from its neighbouring areas at the north, east and west, as evidenced by its specific geodynamic parameters. (1) The crust is twice as thick in the western regions than in the eastern regions. (2) In the western regions, the block structures re-sulting from the crust destruction, which are mainly represented by lense-shaped forms elongated in the submeridio-nal direction, tend to dominate. (3) Active faults bordering large block structures are characterized by significant slip velocities that reach maximum values in the central part of the Tibetan plateau. Further northward, slip velocities decrease gradually, yet do not disappear. (4) In the western regions of Central Asia, the recurrence time of strong earthquakes is about 25 years. It correlates with the regular activation of the seismic process in Asia which is mani-fested in almost the same time intervals; a recurrence time of a strong earthquake controlled by a specific active fault exceeds seems 100–250 years. (5) Mechanisms of all the strong earthquakes contain a slip component that is often accompanied by a compression component. The slip component corresponds to shearing along the faults revealed by geological methods, i.e. correlates with rock mass displacements in the near-fault medium. (6) GPS geodetic meas-urements show that shearing develops in the NW direction in the Tibet. Further northward, the direction changes to the sublatitudinal one. At the boundary of ~105°E, southward of 30°N, the slip vectors attain the SE direction. Further southward of 20°N, at the eastern edge of the Himalayan thrust, the slip vectors again attain the sublatitudinal direc-tion. High velocities/rates of recent crust movements are typical of the Tibet region. (7) The NW direction is typical of the opposite vectors related to the Pacific subduction zone. The resultant of the NE and NW vectors provides for the right-lateral displacement of the rocks in the submeridional border zone. (8) The geodynamic zones around the cen-tral zone (wherein the strong earthquakes are located) are significantly less geodynamically active and thus facilitate the accumulation of compression stresses in the central zone, providing for the transition of rocks to the quazi-plastic state and even flow. This is the principal feature distinguishing the region, wherein the strong earthquakes are loca-ted, from its neighboring areas. In Central Asia, the structural positions of recent strong earthquakes are determined with respect to the following factors: (1) the western regions separated in the studied territory; (2) the larger thickness of the crust in the western regions; (3) strong submeridional compression of the crust and upper lithosphere in combination with shear stresses; (4) high rates of recent crustal movements; and (5) the rheological characteristics of the crust.

The history of tectonophysical studies in Irkutsk began in the 1950s at the initiative of Prof. V.N. Danilovich. Tectonophysics as a new scientific field in geology was enthusiastically supported by research institutes of the actively develo­ping Siberian Branch of the USSR Academy of Sciences, including the Institute of the Earth's Crust (IEC). In late 1950s, V.N. Danilovich, G.V. Charushin, O.V. Pavlov, P.M. Khrenov, S.I. Sherman and other scientists began to conduct large-scale studies of faults and rock fracturing with application of methods of structural analysis of fault tectonics and taking into account types of physical and mechanical destruction of the crust. In 1979, the IEC Scientific Council reviewed the initiative of Prof. S.I. Sherman, who was supported by Academician N.A. Logachev and Doctor of Geology and Mineralogy O.V. Pavlov, and approved the decision to establish the Laboratory of Tectonophysics, that has been and is the only scientific research team of the kind in the territory of Russia eastward of the Urals and, in fact, the second in the Russian Federation. Its studies are based on concepts dealing with physical regularities of crustal faulting that are described in the monograph published by S.I. Sherman [Sherman, 1977], three co-authored volumes of Faulting in the Lithosphere [Sherman et al., 1991, 1992, 1994] and other scientific papers. These publications have consolidated results of studies conducted by the team of researchers from the Laboratory, which can be called the Irkutsk school of tectonophysics. On the eve of the 21st century, the Laboratory successfully extended application of physics of destruction of materials and mathematical methods of analysis to studies of structural patterns of faults varying in ranks in the crust and the upper lithosphere.We conducted comprehensive studies of tectonophysical regularities of formation of large crustal faults, pioneered in establishing quantitative relationships between main parameters of faults, i.e. length and depth, length and amplitude of displacement, length and density, and estimated the factors determining such parameters. A model showing the fault structure was proposed with account of changes of physical properties of the crust with depth. It was shown that faulting in the crust follows the laws of deformation and destruction of Maxwell body.With accumulation of the knowledge on regularities of faulting in the lithosphere, analyses the state of stresses in the lithosphere has become prioritised, and this is one of the top challenges in geodynamics and tectonophysics. Tectonophysics from Irkutsk published the first map of the state of stresses of the Baikal rift zone and proposed new concepts for studying crustal stresses by structural geological methods. Based on such concepts, a new map of the state of stresses of the upper lithosphere was constructed.Studies of faulting included researches of areas around virtual axes of faults and variations of sizes of such areas, and a concept of an area of dynamic influence of large lithospheric faults was proposed. It is established that internal patterns of areas of dynamic influence of faults are composed of zones that can be revealed both laterally and in depth, and such zonal patterns depend on the degree of tectonical and dynamo-metamorphical transformation of the rocks.The internal structure of continental fault zones was studied, and three main disjunctive stages were revealed, each corresponding to a specific type of deformation behaviour of the medium, its state of stresses, pathogenesis of faults varying in ranks, and variations of parameters in space and time.Triple paragenesises of fractures were revealed and analysed for a number of regions, and such studies provided the basis to propose a method of specialized mapping of the crust, which provides for determination of locations of fault zones and their boundaries, conditions of their formation and major specific features of their internal structures. This method can be effectively applied within the framework of conventional geological surveys of any scale.Results of studies of tectonic divisibility of the Earth based on advanced tectonophysical concepts were referred to establish the zone-block structure (ZBS) of the lithosphere. Analyses of faults at various scales showed a strict hierarchy of ranks in the ZBS of the lithosphere in Central Asia, and actual characteristics of 11 hierarchic levels (from global to local) were revealed and described in quantitative terms. With reference to the ZBS concept, the Baikal rift was studied, and the soil radon concentration pattern of Pribaikalie was analysed and its main spatial and temporal regularities were revealed.Comprehensive geological, structural, tectonophysical and geoelectrical studies were conducted in the Cenozoic and Mesozoic basins of Pribaikalie and Transbaikalie, and results were consolidated and published. The fault-block patterns, the deep structure, the state of stresses and seismicity of the crust were studied in a number of areas in the region.Complex tectonophysical studies were initiated in the Yakutian diamond-bearing province to reveal structural factors that control the kimberlite locations, and the first results were reported. By applying tectonophysical methods, it was established that periods of formation of kimberlite bodies are related to stages of formation and activation of the fault pattern of the platform cover. A pioneering conclusion was stated that in the structural control over kimberlite magmatism of the Siberian platform, the dominant role is played by fault zones of the orthogonal network, which were activated in the regime of alternating-sign displacements at different stages of the platform's development in the Paleozoic and Mesozoic.Physical modelling experiments using an original installation were conducted, and, among its main achievements, an important result is modelling of the process of formation of the Baikal rift zone (BRZ) by an elasto-plastic model in conformity with criteria of similarity. The Shanxi rift system was also modelled, and its physical modelling study was conducted jointly with scientists from China under the Russian-Chinese project supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research.Besides, the article informs about commencement of original experimental studies of deformation waves in elasto-plastic mediums and describes objectives of tectonophysical studies for the nearest future.

Results of the All-Russia conference "Faulting and associated processes in the lithosphere: tectonophysical analysis" are reviewed. It was held on 11-16 August 2014 at the Institute of the Earth's Crust, Siberian Branch of RAS in Irkutsk, Russia. Several reports were presented by invited foreign researchers.

It is generally accepted that crustal earthquakes are caused by sudden displacement along faults, which rely on two primary conditions. One is that the fault has a high degree of synergism, so that once the stress threshold is reached, fault segments can be connected rapidly to facilitate fast slip of longer fault sections. The other is sufficient strain accumulated at some portions of the fault which can overcome resistance to slip of the high-strength portions of the fault. Investigations to such processes would help explore how to detect short-term and impending precursors prior to earthquakes. A simulation study on instability of a straight fault is conducted in the laboratory. From curves of stress variations, the stress state of the specimen is recognized and the meta-instability stage is identified. By comparison of the observational information from the press machine and physical parameters of the fields on the sample, this work reveals differences of temporal-spatial evolution processes of fault stress in the stages of stress deviating from linearity and meta-instability. The results show that due to interaction between distinct portions of the fault, their independent activities turn gradually into a synergetic activity, and the degree of such synergism is an indicator for the stress state of the fault. This synergetic process of fault activity includes three stages: generation, expansion and increase amount of strain release patches, and connection between them.. The first stage begins when the stress curve deviates from linearity, different strain variations occur at every portions of the fault, resulting in isolated areas of stress release and strain accumulation. The second stage is associated with quasi-static instability of the early meta-instability when isolated strain release areas of the fault increase and stable expansion proceeds. And the third stage corresponds to the late meta-instability, i.e. quasi-dynamic instability as both the expansion of strain release areas and rise of strain level of strain accumulation areas are accelerated. The synergism is accelerated when the quasi-static expansion transforms into quasi-dynamic expansion, with interaction between fault segments as its mechanism. The essence of such transformation is that the expansion mechanism has changed, i.e. expansion of isolated fault segments is replaced by linkage of the interacting segments when the fault enters the critical state of a potential earthquake. Based on the experimental results, coupled with data on the temporal-spatial evolution of earthquakes along the Laohushan-Maomaoshan fault, west of the Haiyuan fault zone in northwestern China, the synergism process of this fault before the 6 June 2000 M6.2 earthquake is analyzed.

Results of the All-Russia conference “Faulting and associated processes in the lithosphere: tectonophysical analysis” are reviewed. It was held on 11–16 August 2014 at the Institute of the Earth’s Crust, Siberian Branch of RAS in Irkutsk, Russia. Several reports were presented by invited foreign researchers.

Deformation waves as a trigger mechanism of seismic activity and migration of earthquake foci have been under discussion by researchers in seismology and geodynamics for over 50 years. Four sections of this article present available principal data on impacts of wave processes on seismicity and new data. The first section reviews analytical and experimental studies aimed at identification of relationships between wave processes in the lithosphere and seismic activity manifested as space-and-time migration of individual earthquake foci or clusters of earthquakes. It is concluded that with a systematic approach, instead of using a variety of terms to denote waves that trigger seismic process in the lithosphere, it is reasonable to apply the concise definition of ‘deformation waves’, which is most often used in fact.The second section contains a description of deformation waves considered as the trigger mechanism of seismic activity. It is concluded that a variety of methods are applied to identify deformation waves, and such methods are based on various research methods and concepts that naturally differ in sensitivity concerning detection of waves and/or impact of the waves on seismic process. Epicenters of strong earthquakes are grouped into specific linear or arc-shaped systems, which common criterion is the same time interval of the occurrence of events under analysis. On site the systems compose zones with similar time sequences, which correspond to the physical notion of moving waves (Fig. 9). Periods of manifestation of such waves are estimated as millions of years, and a direct consideration of the presence of waves and wave parameters is highly challenging. In the current state-of-the-art, geodynamics and seismology cannot provide any other solution yet.The third section presents a solution considering record of deformation waves in the lithosphere. With account of the fact that all the earthquakes with М≥3.0 are associated with fault zones, a brief description of the method for assessment of spatial and temporal regularities in locations of earthquake epicentres in zones of dynamic influence of faults is provided. The method can be applied to estimate a dominating direction of movement of the epicentres, which corresponds to the phase velocity of the deformation wave disturbing meta-stability of the fault-block medium, leading to displacement of neighbouring blocks and thus causing a seismic event (Fig. 14). By integration of vectors of migration of epicentres at active faults, it is possible to demonstrate a pattern of vectors of movements of the deformation waves in the seismic zones of the continental lithosphere (Fig. 18).Regional and trans-regional deformation waves are analyzed. For seismic zones of Central Asia, vectors of deformation waves are established, a scheme showing regional orientations of the waves is developed, and main wave parameters (length and time period) are estimated (Fig. 19). Three depth levels of deformation waves are distinguished: the whole lithosphere, the upper brittle part of the lithosphere, and the top part of the brittle layer (Fig. 20).It is concluded that the leading factor of gradual accumulation of earthquake foci, which takes place regularly in space and time in seismic zones, are deformation waves that influence the geophysical medium. This understanding of the fundamental basis of seismic process needs to be more thoroughly justified with application of modern concepts, its revised phenomenological concept and development of a model representing a seismic zones as a geologically and geophysically independent structure of the lithosphere, which has its specific properties, based on which testing of the lithosphere becomes possible for purposes of potential earthquake prediction.

Identification of the meta-instable stress state and study of its mechanism and evolution of relevant physical fields would be of great significance for determination of potential seismic risks and estimation of critical times. In laboratory experiments, that the specimen enters the meta-instable is marked by accelerated stress release. Could we use the experimental result to identify the earthquake in natural conditions? Because the observational data from one station can only reflect the stress state beneath this station, the key problem for identification of the meta-instability is how to recognize regional stress state through observational data from many stations. In this work, we choose the evolution of the temperature field over varied deformation stages during a stick-slip event on a 5° bending fault as an example, and attempt to find the response features of the physical quantity when the fault enters the meta-instable state. We discuss the characteristics of stages for the stress build-up, stress-time process deviating from linearity before instability, meta-instability, instability, and post-instability, respectively. The result shows that the fault instability slide is a conversion process from independent activities of each fault segment to synergism activity. The instability implies completion of the synergism. The stage deviating from linearity is the onset of stress release, and it is also the onset of the synergism. At the meta-instability stages, stress release becomes dominant, while the synergism tends to finish. Therefore, the analysis of the regional overall stress state should not start from individual stations, and instead it should begin with the evolution of the whole deformation field.

The article provides a brief review of the history of tectonophysical meetings in the former Soviet Union and Russia. This information is published on the eve of the Third Tectonophysical Conference convened by the Institute of Physics of the Earth in October 2012.

A new concept is proposed concerning the origin and inception of ‘initial’ faults and formation of large blocks as a result of cooling of the Archaean lithosphere, during which Benard cells had formed (Fig. 5). At locations where cooling convection currents went down, partial crystallization took place, stresses were localized, and initial fault occurred there. The systems of such fault developed mainly in two directions and gradually formed an initial block pattern of the lithosphere. This pattern is now represented by the largest Archaean faults acting as boundaries of the lithospheric plates and large intraplate blocks (Fig. 6). This group of faults represents the first scaletime level of destruction of the lithosphere. Large blocks of the first (and may be the second) order, which are located on the viscous foundation, interacted with each other under the influence of the sublithospheric movements or endogenous sources and thus facilitated the occurrence of high stresses inside the blocks. When the limits of strength characteristics of the block medium were exceeded, the intrablock stresses were released and caused formation of fractures/faults and blocks of various ranks (Fig. 14). This large group, including faultblock structures of various ranks and ages, comprises the second level of the scaletime destruction of the lithosphere.The intense evolution of ensembles of faults and blocks of the second scaletime level is facilitated by shortterm activation of faultblock structures of the lithosphere under the influence of strain waves. Periods of intensive shortterm activation are reliably detected by seismic monitoring over the past fifty years. Investigations of periodical processes specified in the geological records over the post-Proterozoic periods [Khain, Khalilov, 2009] suggest that in so far uninvestigated historical and more ancient times, the top of the lithosphere was subject to wave processes that influenced the metastable state of the faultblock medium of the lithosphere.At the second scale-time level, the lithosphere is destructed in accordance with the laws of destruction of elastic and brittle bodies; at all hierarchical levels, the lithospheric destruction complies with the similarity patterns; the lithospheric destruction processes are characterized by fractality and take place synchronously with other destruction processes.Equations of the fault (7) and block divisibility (8) of the lithosphere and the generalized equation (9) of the faultblock divisibility of lithosphere are proposed.By the present stage of the geodynamic evolution of the Earth, the horizontally-layered zonal pattern of destruction of the Earth has been established (Fig. 15). The next step would be obtaining the knowledge of the law that governs the evolution of the lithospheric destruction as a whole. The subjects for discussions hold be variations of the rheological properties of the vertical profile of the lithosphere, impacts of the time factor on the rheological and mechanical properties, and, lastly, the initial heterogeneity of the lithospheric medium in combination with modern geodynamic processes. This problem is solvable, and its importance for practical applications is undubitable.

The first tectonophysical model of the Baikal seismic zone represents a separate complex region of the lithosphere. It has a pinnate structure with a backbone belt of current deformation, which is a concentrator of largest earthquakes, and branching, repeatedly reactivated large and small faults. In its vertical section, the seismic zone is tree-like, the stem and the branches being faults of different size ranks which can generate earthquakes when reactivated. The real-time short-period fault motions and the respective seismicity occurring at a certain time and in certain places are triggered by strain waves, which disturb the metastable state of the faulted lithosphere subject to regional stress. The modeling work includes developing general requirements for tectonophysical models of continental rifts and special methods for identifying the faults that become active within short historic time spans, as well as techniques for locating potential events in space and time in specific active faults. The methods and model testing for medium-term earthquake prediction are described by the example of the well-documented Baikal seismic zone, which is the most active part of the Baikal rift system. The tectonophysical model for the Baikal zone is statistically supported by field data, and this allows estimating the velocities and periods of strain waves for different zone segments and faults, with implications for nearest-future earthquake prediction.