The degree and scope of constraints imposed by International Organizations (IOs) on States are increasing, and identifying the factors affecting the IOs' stances on States is helpful to enhance the state's discourse power and influence in the international community. First, by coding the records of Regular Press Conferences of the Speaking Office of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs during the period of 20182022, we obtained a dataset of IOs' stances on China-related events. Second, we constructed political relation, economic relation, and humanistic relation indicators to complement the influence factors, adopted the Bayesian logit model, and applied the Monte Carlo Markov chain algorithm and Gibbs sampling to analyze the probability of IOs' positive stances towards China. The result shows that IOs' category, length of establishment, functional position, and relationship with China are all related to their tendency of making a statement about China. In terms of the heterogeneity of event types, forum-type IOs are significantly inclined to give positive assessment compared to service-type IOs on events focusing on China's own development. Further analysis reveals that the model for analyzing and predicting the attitudes of IOs is more effective when the international situation is in a stable period.

Based on the data of 247 cities at the prefecture level in China from 2007 to 2019, this paper analyzes the impact of the carbon emissions trading (CET) pilot policy on carbon emission reduction from the perspective of the price mechanism and government constraints. The results show that the carbon emissions and carbon intensity in the pilot areas are significantly reduced by adjusting the industrial structure and promoting green technology innovation. In terms of regions, the emission reduction effect of the pilot policy in regions with a high proportion of industry is obviously weaker than that in other regions. The aim of the carbon emission trading policy in China that achieve carbon emission reduction is by coordinating the carbon emission trading price that fail to fulfill this aim independently and the degree of government punishment for enterprises.

[目的/意义]通过分析国内外城市现代化评价指标体系和研究方法的现状和进展,结合实证研究,探讨国际城市现代化经验对中国城市现代化发展的启示,以期对相关的政策制定提供参考.[方法/过程]在梳理世界城市现代化的特点趋势和历史经验的基础上,结合10个国际案例城市和33个国内案例城市现代化的发展水平和现状,总结各个城市现代化的模式和历史经验以及对中国城市现代化发展路径的启示.[结果/结论]城市现代化是多元的,不同地区、不同时代、不同城市现代化的模式和路径各有不同.在城市的共性或普遍性要素达到一定水平、把握城市现代化发展大势的基础上,每座城市需要凝练出自己的城市特色和精神,形成适合自身的个性化城市现代化之路.中国应该坚持走新型城镇化和城乡融合的中国式城市现代化发展道路.

[目的/意义]2023 年是"一带一路"倡议提出十周年.十年来,"一带一路"倡议已成为深受欢迎的国际公共产品,推动了新型全球治理.研究和探索"一带一路"倡议实施对全球治理体系的贡献和创新,具有重大的理论意义和实践意义.[方法/过程]本文回顾了"一带一路"倡议实施以来对全球治理的贡献,从国际规范、经济金融贸易体系、区域合作和产业链价值链分工的角度,探讨和剖析了"一带一路"倡议引领全球治理走向新平衡的实践路径.在此基础上,通过比较分析法,厘清"一带一路"倡议所推动的新型全球治理的新特点.[结果/结论]"一带一路"倡议已成为开放合作、互利共赢的国际合作平台,为全球基础设施联通、贸易投资便利化、多边合作和可持续发展做出了积极贡献."一带一路"倡议有助于平衡国际力量,推动全球治理走向新平衡."一带一路"倡议的成功经验,为全球治理研究提供了具有重要价值的案例和思考.

"一带一路"倡议提出以来,新型发展融资机构陆续成立,投融资方式趋于灵活多元,为全球基础设施融资注入了新动力.为了解开发性金融业务模式在"一带一路"建设中的重要影响,文章首先梳理分析了其在共建"一带一路"大市场中的独特作用,即缓解市场失灵、培育市场机制和维护市场稳定.其次,根据相关数据库首次统计出"一带一路"共建国家所涉及的318家国别开发性金融机构和52家多边开发性金融机构.通过梳理发现,机构数量自19世纪以来总体上持续增长,最新资产总额近8万亿美元,主要位于亚洲、非洲和欧洲.其中,国别开发性金融机构一般规模较小,但设立形式多样;多边开发性金融机构在资产规模上欧洲占40%,而非洲在机构数量上最多,达25%.最后,针对近年来开发性金融机构在组织结构以及投资模式上的治理创新和发展趋势,提出成立"一带一路"开发性金融机构联盟、构建"一带一路"区域级别的项目投融资数据库、协调好各利益相关方等建议,以更好地发挥各类金融机构在"一带一路"投融资体系中的作用.

采用2003-2019年我国30个省份(港澳台地区及西藏除外)的面板数据,利用多期双重差分法对碳排放权交易政策试点的减排效果及其微观机制进行了实证检验.结果表明:相比于未进行试点的区域,碳排放权交易政策显著促进了试点区域的碳减排,降低了单位产出的能源消耗和人均二氧化碳排放量;碳排放权交易政策主要通过挤出效应、激励效应和产业结构升级效应等 3 种微观机制达到碳减排的效果.基于此,提出完善环境规制体系,扩大政策试点范围;培育企业环保和绿色创新新业态,为企业提供技术补助和绿色创新的资金支持;建立健全全国统一碳交易市场,促进企业节能减排等建议.

基于数字基础设施、数字经济发展环境、数字互联互通三个维度,利用时序全局主成分分析法,对2010—2019年"一带一路"沿线各东道国的数字"一带一路"建设水平进行了测算,并实证检验了数字"一带一路"对沿线东道国参与国际分工的影响.结果显示,数字"一带一路"有利于提高沿线东道国的全球价值链分工地位,并以数字经济发展环境的影响效力最为明显.数字"一带一路"主要通过促进东道国出口产品质量改善、人力资本升级和技术创新能力提升的机制驱动价值链升级,但不同子维度的作用效果不同.从行业异质性看,数字"一带一路"对中低技术制造业、电信业和贸易服务业的影响最为显著.进一步分析发现,数字"一带一路"对全球价值链的影响存在国家间的示范效应,能够增强各东道国发展的整体性,弥合"数字鸿沟",有利于各国更好地融入世界经济.

"大时代需要大格局,大格局需要大智慧"."一带一路"倡议是我国在深化改革、扩大开放的基础上,促进国内外政策、产业、技术、资本等资源的互动融合的改革开放2.0 版本,也是我国积极参与全球治理,推动全球化向更加公平、包容、平衡的方向发展的新型全球化2.0版本的中国方案,已成为开放包容、互利互惠、合作共赢的国际合作平台和国际社会普遍欢迎的全球公共产品,为破解全球发展赤字、促进全球均衡发展作出了重要贡献.

数字技术引领的第四次工业革命正重塑经济全球化发展格局、重构国际经贸规则、重建国际商业应用模式、重组产业链和供应链结构.RCEP各成员国正积极推进数字化进程,数字经济合作是成员国中长期经济布局的战略关切,为区域经济一体化和全球化注入新动能.通过分析RCEP成员国数字经济发展现状与趋势发现,搭建数字经济国际合作平台,完善数字贸易规则和数字治理体系,将有助于东亚实现可持续发展经济生态圈,驱动数字经济推动东亚、东南亚经济圈发展,研究预测新亚洲"四小龙"的经济格局有望形成.

中国命运已经与世界命运紧密联系起来,中华民族伟大复兴与世界秩序重构是一个不可分割的历史进程.世界资本主义不平衡、不充分发展阶段不可避免地引发严重后果,并形成锁定效应,使资本主义发展陷入"卡夫丁峡谷",这将是未来人类社会长期存在的基本世情.人类命运共同体超越狭隘的意识形态偏见,包容资本主义和社会主义共同发展,展现出多重世界历史价值.本文认为,命运共同体世界将推动人类社会形成新的发展范式:一是相互尊重、平等协商为主导的政治范式;二是对话谈判、求同存异为主导的安全范式;三是合作互补、开放共赢为主导的经济范式;四是互学互鉴、多样共存为主导的文化范式;五是保护优先、绿色低碳为主导的生态范式.但是,命运共同体世界的形成应遵循双边命运共同体、多边命运共同体、区域命运共同体、人类命运共同体以多层联动、循序推进的方式为发展路径,并要把握好虚拟共同体转型和命运共同体创建的辩证历史过程.在这一过程中,中国无疑是构建人类命运共同体的先导者、引领者和核心力量.

Livelihood is a complex system that includes environmental, economic, social, and institutional dimensions, driving the evolution of the relationship between individuals and geographical environment. Further research on how people value and envision their livelihoods may help to better develop plans and incentives aimed at protecting and restoring ecosystem services. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the current livelihoods status of local households, to identify underlying factors that affect their current and future livelihood strategy, thereby providing policy references for grassland optimization and the sustainable development of pastorists' livelihoods. In this study, researchers collected data by surveying 427 households from the Hulunbuir grasslands of China. We find that the pastoral livelihood strategies currently are dominated by pastoral husbandry (pure pastoral husbandry or dominant pastoral husbandry) and supplemented by concurrent household occupations (dominant non-pastoral husbandry and non-pastoral husbandry); the households' future livelihood strategy is mainly to expand pastoral husbandry. Our analysis shows again, livelihood asset possession has a significant influence on pastoral families' current and future choices of livelihood strategies. In particular, the ownership of social assets, geographical advantage, and 'production assets', which consist of natural, physical, and financial assets, have significant influences on pastoral households' current livelihood strategy but non-significant impacts on their future livelihood strategy. Human assets and informational assets significantly influence both current and future livelihood strategies of pastoral households. We emphasize that livelihood assets can be the entry point for policies aiming to linking sustainable livelihoods with sustainable grassland use and conservation, particularly at a regional level.

Green Belt and Road development has gradually become a global consensus, and the quantitative assessment of the green development level constitutes the basis for building a green Belt and Road high-quality development path in practice. In this paper, the Belt and Road Green development index (BRGI) was proposed in three dimensions, i.e., green nature, green economy and green society, to evaluate the green development spatial and temporal characteristics of the 80 participating countries in the Belt and Road Initiative from 2010 to 2018, and based on the quadrant method, green development cooperation model was established. The results showed: (1) In 2018,the average BRGI of participating countries is 54.38, and more than half of the countries have not reached the average level; From a regional perspective, the green development level in Europe is the highest, followed by Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, and it is the lowest in South Asia and Africa. (2) At the considered time scale, the green development level in the Belt and Road participation countries has been increased from 2010 to 2018. (3) The green Belt and Road development cooperation modes can be divided into the all-round high-level energy attraction cooperation model, systematic win–win cooperation model for the whole field, three-dimensional refined empowerment cooperation model and multilevel high-trust cooperation. According to the different cooperation modes, the study also provides policy recommendations to promote for green development.

2008年全球金融危机以来,逆全球化趋势给全球治理带来了新挑战.金砖国家合作机制的构建,对倒逼传统的全球经济治理体系与机制的改革和创新发挥着越来越积极的作用.金砖国家应在现有合作基础上深化多边合作,通过人文交流增强政治互信;构建“人类命运共同体”,拓展金砖国家全球伙伴关系网络;坚持多边主义合作机制参与经济高质量发展,并在实践中总结全球治理新理念,为完善现有全球经济发展与治理体系提供新的竞争性方案.

科学进步本质上是一个动态和累积的过程,对特定研究领域的任何贡献都必须建立在先前的理论、 方法和研究成果之上.本文基于文献计量学可视化工具CiteSpace、VOSviewer和Hiscite,刻画了1990—2019年生计脆弱性研究领域的科学知识图谱.结果表明:研究自2005年以来受到了国际学者的广泛关注,发文数量显著增加.虽然发文期刊和机构的空间分布较分散,但该领域合作的作者群和机构群已形成稳定的规模,且美国、英国和澳大利亚已形成一定的集中优势.目前生计脆弱性领域的研究热点主要围绕气候变化脆弱性、社会生态系统脆弱性以及重点地区和特殊群体的脆弱性3个主题.Adger、Chambers、Ellis、Scoones和Smit等学者及其代表作是生计脆弱性研究的知识基础.生计脆弱性的研究前沿从围绕不同类型冲击或压力对生计的影响研究转向对围绕自然和社会生态系统的动态性和多尺度的研究,以及对不确定性风险的适应与管理等交叉性和综合性的研究方向发展.该结果可为生计脆弱性领域的研究人员提供快速有效的理论基础定位,以及作为提出新问题和新观点的参考源.