Despite significant efforts to reduce polluting air emissions, during and after the economic transition in the 1990s, Poland remains home to many of the most polluted cities in the European Union (EU). This report examines the nature and magnitude of ambient air pollution (AAP) in Poland. It provides estimates of the health burden, and economic cost associated with the health impacts, of ambient air pollution i.e., particulate matter (PM) both at national and regional or voivodeship levels in Poland. It also explores the roles of various sources of air pollution emissions on ambient air quality in Poland. With emphasis on the critical residential sector, this report analyses the likely impacts of national and EU legislative scenarios on future pollution emissions and ambient air quality in Poland. In addition, the report performs a demonstrative cost-benefit analysis of selected interventions to reduce AAP in residential and transport sectors and from point sources in the voivodeships that bear the heaviest burden of the impacts of AAP. Institutional factors that affect the effectiveness of ambient air quality management are discussed. Finally, policy recommendations for air pollution prevention, reduction and abatement are presented. The current study estimates that 25,280 - 44,811 deaths were caused by ambient PM2.5 pollution in Poland in 2016. The analysis applied two methodologies: (i) the approach from the 2016 Global Burden of Disease study; and (ii) the approach used by the EEA in their 2018 study. GBD studies analyze the health risks attributable to environmental factors, for different years, for most countries by linking environmental factors with the burden of disease attributable to them. Consistent with the GBD methodology, the analysis in this chapter applies a conservative approach by calculating premature, age-specific mortality from five diseases - ischemic heart disease, stroke, COPD, lung cancer, lower respiratory illness, that are directly linked to PM pollution. By contrast, the EEA approach calculates all-cause or non-accidental mortality (i.e., all deaths excluding poisoning, suicide and war), and assumes a linear relationship between mortality and PM concentration for population above age 30. The morbidity health burden is estimated in this report using HRAPIE recommended methodology (WHO, 2013) that focuses on acute bronchitis for children, chronic bronchitis for adults, cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions and lost work days caused by PM air pollution.

Many cities in Kosovo suffer from poor air quality, with ambient concentrations of particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 micrometers or less (PM2.5) significantly exceeding the national and European Union (EU) standards and global air quality guidelines for PM2.5 established by the World Health Organization (WHO). The air pollution in the capital city of Prishtina rivals that of big cities like Beijing, Mumbai, and New Delhi. Especially in winter, urban areas face severe smog episodes, caused by the increased demand for heat from the residential and commercial sector, which is mainly provided by burning solid fuels. Such levels of air pollution are unsafe for Kosovo's population of 1.9 million and cause significant deleterious health impacts. This report is one in a series of three reports on air quality management (AQM) in Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia. It examines the nature and magnitude of ambient air pollution (AAP) in Kosovo. It provides estimates of the health burden and the economic cost associated with the health impacts of AAP, that is, PM2.5, in Kosovo. It also analyzes of the roles of various sources of PM2.5 emissions on ambient air quality in Kosovo at a national level. The institutional and policy framework for AQM in the country is examined, including contributions of other development institutions in supporting Kosovo in addressing air pollution. Furthermore, the report presents experiences of selected countries that have applied different policy, investment, and technical interventions for air pollution, prevention, reduction, and abatement. Finally, it provides recommendations for reducing air pollution in Kosovo.

Fishery and fishing industry are in decline in the Caspian. The reasons are mainly hidden in the long-term overexploitation of Caspian bioresources and in the poor control on illegal and unreported fishery in the region during the last two decades. Since the early 1990s, the illegal Caspian catches have largely exceeded the officially reported ones (nearly twofold on the average). The collapse of Caspian sturgeon and kilka stocks has made the fishery industry nonprofitable in all Caspian littoral states. Other important problems are also discussed in this paper giving for each Caspian country specifics. With the presented problems in Caspian fishery, we trace fishing efforts (legal and poaching in the period 1990–2010) and costs and losses of the Caspian states and build scenarios of Caspian fish resources recovery. The resulted scenarios showed that certain measures need to be urgently implemented and continued for many years. The sustainable exploitation of Caspian bioresources requires improved enhancement programs (e.g., restocking with proper control on released fingerlings – their genetics and rate of survival) and, for at least 20–25 years, zero or minimal quotas for sturgeons catch aiming at scientific research and at provision of spawners to hatcheries only. In parallel, the fishery management systems need to be strengthened at national and regional level, in general, both in the development of innovative legal/institutional frameworks as well as in the enforcement of existing laws and policies. Rebuilding stocks of valuable Caspian bioresources will not be efficient without a strong national and international control on their exploitation, especially on illegal fishery. So far, the introduced official ban on sturgeon catch has been largely neglected in all Caspian states. The proposed measures will ensure sustainable Caspian resources rent revenue in the future on the expenses of a foregone short-term and low current gains which inevitably lead to the extinction of valuable Caspian fish species.

Despite considerable progress in the area of environmental management over the last decade, Colombia still faces significant impacts from population exposure to urban air pollution, inadequate access to water supply and sanitation, and indoor air pollution from solid fuel use. This study estimates that the total health cost attributable to these three factors amounts to about 10.2 trillion Colombian Pesos (COP) annually, or about 2 percent of GDP in 2010. In terms of mortality, about 7,600 annual premature deaths can be attributed to these environmental factors. This study updates some of the estimates of environmental health costs reported in the 2005 Colombia Country Environmental Analysis ‘environmental priorities and poverty reduction’. Specific policy recommendations and targeted interventions can be derived from future analysis of environmental health costs at subnational level, cost-benefit analysis of specific policy interventions, and an analysis of the burden of health costs disaggregated by population groups and poverty levels. Disaggregated statistics on health outcomes, fuel use, and access to infrastructure services, epidemiological studies, and air quality models (urban and industrial areas) are required for such analysis. Disaggregated assessments and cost benefit analysis, recommended for future studies, will facilitate an evaluation of policy and investment outcomes in terms of their impacts on the most vulnerable groups and the extent to which they are well targeted and benefit the poor.

Historically, Ukraine has been a major source of industrial production for the former Soviet Union and the source of pollution associated with an aging industrial infrastructure. The US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) and the Ukrainian Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MENR) entered into partnership to develop Ukrainian expertise and capacity in risk assessment so that Ukraine could more effectively use its National and Regional Environmental Protection Funds and set priorities for cleanup and regulation. Ukrainian scientists, local officials, and EPA consultants conducted a pilot study in the heavily industrialized Zaporizhzhia Oblast so that the process, analytical tools, and approach for a risk assessment could be developed for and tailored to Ukrainian needs. As a first step, site-specific information was obtained from multiple sources of air pollution and an emissions inventory of air pollution developed. Efforts by local officials were critical for emissions inventory construction. After refinements were made to the inventory, Ukrainian scientists then performed exposure modeling using this information so that ambient concentrations of pollutants could be estimated. 11 industry types (i.e., enterprises) were identified as a major emission source. Results of the modeling effort demonstrated that emissions estimates of particulate matter (as measured by particles of less than 10 micron diameter or “PM10”) and a number of carcinogens were consistent with those from other cities with high concentrations of metallurgical industries in former Soviet Union countries, and were above safety standards. Hazard information was gathered from international databases for each of the estimated pollutants. Using such data, prioritization and identification of potential health concerns can be made, but most importantly, the expertise and experience gained from the pilot allowed for continued support of risk assessment capacity building in the Ukraine and support by the World Bank.

This study provides estimates of social and financial costs of environmental damage in India from three pollution damage categories: (i) urban air pollution; (ii) inadequate water supply, poor sanitation, and hygiene; and (iii) indoor air pollution. It also provides estimates based on three natural resource damage categories: (i) agricultural damage from soil salinity, water logging, and soil erosion; (ii) rangeland degradation; and (iii) deforestation. The estimates are based on a combination of Indian data from secondary sources and on the transfer of unit costs of pollution from a range of national and international studies. The study estimates the total cost of environmental degradation in India at about 3.75 trillion rupees (US$80 billion) annually, equivalent to 5.7 percent of gross domestic product in 2009, which is the reference year for most of the damage estimates. Of this total, outdoor air pollution accounts for 1.1 trillion rupees, followed by the cost of indoor air pollution at 0.9 trillion rupees, croplands degradation cost at 0.7 trillion rupees, inadequate water supply and sanitation cost at around at 0.5 trillion rupees, pasture degradation cost at 0.4 trillion rupees, and forest degradation cost at 0.1 trillion rupees.

The paper presents estimation of the health losses from urban air pollution in Ukraine. The methodology developed by US EPA and adjusted in Russia for Eastern European transition countries was applied for health risk assessment. PM2.5 was identified as the major source of human health risk, based on experience from the Russian studies. In the absence of reliable computed concentrations of PM2.5, the study was based on monitoring data of total suspended particle (TSP) emissions in Ukraine. Additional cases of mortality and morbidity were calculated based on reporting data on TSP concentration that was recalculated into PM2.5. Then the concentration-response function was applied to estimate individual risk. Next, individual risk was applied to the population exposed to the concentration reported for each city included in the analysis (we selected most polluted cities). For each city we considered individual data on baseline mortality and morbidity and population structure. In total, air pollution related mortality represents about 6 percent of total mortality in Ukraine. In Russia the corresponding indicator totals about 4 percent. The relative mortality risk attributed to air pollution calculated per 100 000 population in both countries is about 55-59 cases. Since applied method is sensitive to the primary data uncertainties we conducted sensitivity analysis applying Monte-Carlo method. Economic damage related to mortality risk was estimated at about 4 percent of GDP. There was no relevant WTP study in Ukraine therefore we applied the benefit-transfer method in order to estimate VSL, since mortality attributed to air pollution is major component of health losses (about 94 percent). In order to compare and aggregate mortality and morbidity risks we recalculated them in DALY. Then morbidity represents about 30 percent of total air pollution health load. Data on baseline morbidity is less reliable than data on baseline mortality; therefore the morbidity risk estimates are more uncertain than mortality estimates. It is likely that morbidity risk is underestimated. Regardless of uncertainties mentioned above and some problems with reported data we can conclude that the mortality risk attributed to air pollution is significant. Therefore, costs of air pollution in Ukraine are sizable and in the nearest future may offset the economic growth. Recovery of the Ukrainian economy based on restoration of polluting industries may lead to stagnation since mortality and morbidity risks not only puts burden on the economy, but also reduce labor force.

The selection of climate policy has to be made in an extremely uncertain environment: both benefits and costs of a particular climate policy are unknown and in the best case could be described by the probability distribution of various outcomes. Dominated in literature, the expected value approach to the cost–benefit analysis of climate policy under uncertainties relies on the aggregated estimation of various outcomes of climate policy weighted and averaged by probabilities. The variance, skewness, and kurtosis are important characteristics of uncertainties but can be easily lost in the process of aggregation. The real option analysis (ROA) explicitly accounts for both the expected value of underling assets and the variance of the expected value (as well as skewness and kurtosis that are important to describe a fat tail phenomenon). In the paper, we propose an application of the real option analysis in order to formulate rules for the selection of a climate policy (emission target) and estimate the economic value of the future flexibility created by interim climate policy, which may be corrected in the future in response to new knowledge that hopefully reduces uncertainties. The initially selected interim policy has an option value and methodology for its valuation presented in the paper.

Since 1997, more than 30 health-risk analyses were conducted using Russian data sets. These studies demonstrated that air pollution is the most important environmental contributor toward morbidity and mortality risk in Russia, with 90% of the total human health risk coming from the criteria pollutants total suspended particulate (TSP), SO2, and NOx. This article contributes to the ongoing discussion of the magnitude of this health issue in Russia by providing an estimate of both the mortality rate attributed to airborne pollutants and the associated economic damages. The 90% confidence interval of mortality is 46,000-132,000, and the associated economic damages are between 2.6 and 6.5% of gross domestic product (GDP). The largest source of uncertainty in mortality is the concentration-response parameter, accounting for 50-60% of the total variability in the estimate. The point estimate of 87,000 implies that mortality due to airborne pollutants is threefold higher than reported due to tuberculosis, twofold due to transportation accidents, and about the same as that from suicide and homicide combined. By 2002 there was enough evidence regarding potential health hazard and air pollution exposure in Russia to start environmental management reform. In 2004 Russia officially adopted guidelines for health risk analysis associated with air pollution. The next step is to use this health-risk assessment approach as a lead for sensible reforms of the emissions-permit system and environmental finance.

ISEE-417 Objective: The objective of the study was to estimate the relationship between outdoor air pollution levels and daily nonaccidental mortality in Moscow. Material and Methods: Moscow is the only city in Russia with continuous air pollution monitoring. Twenty-four-hour average concentrations of PM10 were available in the period between January 2003 and December 2005. NOx, SO2, and ozone 24-hour average concentrations were available also. As confounding factors we considered humidity, air temperature, and atmospheric pressure. Daily mortality from all natural causes, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality among all ages was obtained from the state statistical service for the same period of time. The relationship between daily mortality and air pollution was investigated with a Poisson model including distributed lag model approach. Results: Concentration-response factor in 95% CI was estimated in a range of 0.3% to 0.7% increase of daily mortality per 10 μg/m3 of PM10 with z = 4.7. Impact of time lag was statistically insignificant. Concentration-response factor for daily mortality in summer was 0.6% to 1.5% in 95% CI. Results for 1-day lag were statistically significant with z = 2.05. Concentration-response factor for daily mortality in winter was lower, equal to 0.1% to 0.8% in 95% CI. Central estimate for total acute mortality attributed to PM10 air pollution was 2300 cases annually, or 1.7% of total annual mortality in Moscow. Conclusions: The estimates of concentration-response factor are within the range of results for European cities, but higher than results of most recent studies in United States. One of the explanations could be the difference in air conditioning practice, and indoor/outdoor activities. About 2% of mortality attributed to air pollution is about twice higher than transport accident fatalities in Moscow.

Previous analyses of Russia's dual pricing system and hidden subsidies for natural gas, have neglected to assess the dual pricing system as a domestic environmental policy. If dual pricing is considered as a policy to reduce conventional air pollutants, it is more than economically justified in Russia on the basis of avoided health risks. In the short term, the substitution of coal for natural gas may result in significant additional human health risk, which translates into economic damage. An alternative abatement possibility is expensive and unlikely enforceable, due to weak environmental regulation. The authors conclude that while the price differential can be expected to diminish over time, as Russia increasingly moves to a market economy, in the near-term, dual pricing of natural gas remains the most efficient environmental policy for Russia.

This paper demonstrates the strong link between the implementation of a GHG emission mitigation policy and the reduction of human health risk related to air pollution in Russia. The human health risk analysis method was introduced in Russia in the late 1990s. After a few pilot studies, this method has been in studies in several Russian cities with high populations and high air pollution. These studies demonstrate that among the hundreds of pollutants controlled by Russian law, a handful are responsible for up to 90% of human health risk from air pollution (PM$_{10}$ and SO$_{2}$ contribute the most). Fossil fuel combustion is the main source of the aforementioned conventional pollutants. This paper provides an overview of local ancillary benefits studies in selected Russian cities. The countrywide energy study presented in this paper proves that reduction of GHG emissions in the power generation sector would result in the reduction of these conventional pollutants in all regions. A major challenge for Russia in this process is a potential increase of the share of coal in the fuel mix. Such a change would result in the additional loss of 118,000 years of life countrywide. In the Central and Volgo-Viatsky regions additional mortality could increase by more than 30%. As a result of a GHG mitigation policy that avoided an increase in the coal share of the fuel mix could produce ancillary benefits in 2010 around $60 per ton of CO2 emission reduction in power sector alone.

The authors wish to acknowledge Hallie Katarski and Uliana Popova for their contributions to this report. On the cover: Iceberg from a distance (Digital Vision). Our mission Environmental Defense is dedicated to protecting the environmental rights of all people, including the right to clean air, clean water, healthy food and flourishing ecosystems. Guided by science, we work to create practical solutions that win lasting political, economic and social support because they are nonpartisan, cost-effective and fair. Executive summary iv Table of abbreviations and acronyms v PART ONE The science of climate change 1 PART TWO Fairness and efficiency of the Kyoto Protocol architecture 10 The main elements of the Kyoto Protocol 10 The scientific basis of the Kyoto Protocol 11 The economic basis of the Kyoto Protocol 12 How expensive is the Kyoto Protocol and for whom? Are concerns about the lack of participation by developing countries justified? Are the Kyoto targets based on technological illusions—lessons from acid rain What were Russian emissions over the last ten years? 20 What is the Russian emission budget for the Kyoto Protocol period? 20 Will the Kyoto Protocol limit economic growth in Russia? 22 The legitimacy of crosscountry comparisons Will GHG emissions from energy consumption exceed the Kyoto Protocol budget? What is the forecast for the next decade? What are the costs for Russia to meet the Kyoto Protocol target? 27 Macroeconomic costs The oil market Institution building What are the benefits to Russia from implementing the Kyoto Protocol? 28 What are the direct economic benefits? What are the quantifiable ancillary benefits? What are the consequences for Russia if the Kyoto Protocol fails to enter 32 into force?

In this article we propose a careful analysis of the economic consequences of the Kyoto Protocol for Russia, taking into account the most recently available data and the latest developments in the trends regarding Russian economic recovery. We present a review of different GHG forecasts for Russia and develop a new forecast for uncertain GDP growth and changing elasticity of GHG emission per GDP. Since the rate of growth remains uncertain, elasticity could change over time, as well as the fuel mix. We apply the Monte-Carlo method to simulate these uncertainties and to produce a reasonable interval for CO2, emissions in 2010. The probability of Russia exceeding its Kyoto emissions budget is essentially zero. Further, we discuss the benefits for Russia from the Kyoto Protocol, and more generally from implementation of GHG mitigation policy. Ancillary benefits from Kyoto Protocol implementation will bring essential reductions in risk to human health. On the other hand, potential negative changes in the fuel mix and GDP structure, as well as a slowing of the innovation process, could exacerbate existing health problems. Alternatives to the Kyoto Protocol may bring much tougher commitments to Russia. We conclude that the Kyoto Protocol is the best possible deal for Russia. Therefore, Russia most will ratify it.