In addition to several recent articles devoted to the rare event of ground-level enhancement of the solar relativistic proton flux observed on 2021 October 28 (GLE73), we study the 10-100 MeV solar energetic particle (SEP) component of this event. Based on the GOES satellite data for 26 GLEs recorded since 1986, we have formed a scatter plot displaying the ratio of the peak fluxes of the >10 MeV (J10) and >100 MeV (J100) protons and their energy spectra. Two extreme characteristics of the prompt component of the SEP-GLE73 event were revealed: (1) very small J10 and J100 proton fluxes and (2) a very hard energetic spectrum in the 10-100 MeV range. There are only two events with these characteristics similar to SEP-GLE73 namely, GLE40 (1989 July 25) and GLE46 (1989 November 15). A correspondence was demonstrated between the hard frequency spectrum of microwave radio bursts of initiating flares and the hard SEP energy spectrum of these two and other GLEs. These results suggest that the flare magnetic reconnection both in the impulsive and post-eruption phases plays an important role in the acceleration of the SEP-GLE protons.

On the approach to minimum of Solar Cycle 24, on 26 August 2018, an unexpectedly strong geomagnetic storm (GMS) suddenly occurred. Its $D _{\mathit{st}}$ index reached $-174~\mbox{nT}$, that is, the third most intense storm of the cycle. The analysis showed that it was initiated by a two-step long filament eruption, which occurred on 20 August in the central sector of the solar disk. The eruptions were accompanied by two large-scale divergent flare-like ribbons and dimmings of a considerable size and were followed by relatively weak but evident Earth-directed coronal mass ejections. In the inner corona, their estimated speed was very low, about $200\mbox{--}360~\mbox{km}\,\mbox{s}^{-1}$. The respective interplanetary transients apparently propagated between two high-speed solar wind streams originated from a two-component coronal hole and therefore their expansion was limited. The resulting ejecta arrived at Earth only on 25 August and brought an unexpectedly strong field of $B _{\mathit{t}} \approx 18.2~\mbox{nT}$ with a predominantly negative $B _{\mathit{z}}$ component of almost the same strength. The geospace storm also manifested itself in the form of a peculiar Forbush decrease (FD). Its magnitude was about 1.5%, which is rather small for the observed G3-class GMS. The main unusual feature of the event is that large positive bursts with an enhancement up to 3% above the pre-event level were recorded on the FD background. We argue that these bursts were mainly caused by an unusually large and changeable cosmic ray anisotropy combined with lowering of the geomagnetic cutoff rigidity in the perturbed Earth’s magnetosphere under cycle minimum-like conditions.

More than 140 isolated non-recurrent geomagnetic storms (GMSs) of various intensities from extreme to weak are considered; these are reliably identified with solar eruptive sources (coronal mass ejections, CMEs). The analysis aims to obtain a possibly complete picture of the relationship between the transit time of propagation of CMEs and interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) from the Sun to the Earth (more precisely, the time interval $\Delta t_{p}$ from the moment of an eruption until the peak of the corresponding GMS) and the maximum intensity of this GMS, as measured by the disturbance storm time geomagnetic index Dst. Two groups of events are singled out: one includes GMSs, the source of which was an eruption from an active region (AR events), the other GMSs caused by filament eruptions from quiescent areas of the Sun located outside ARs (QS events). The distribution of the large number of the analyzed events on a $\Delta t_{p}$ – Dst plane confirms and substantially clarifies the known regularities. The AR events are characterized by a shorter transit time ($\Delta t_{p} \approx 1$–4 days) and much stronger GMSs (Dst up to –600 nT mainly) in comparison with the QS events ($\Delta t_{p} \approx 3$–5 days, Dst > –200 nT). For events of both groups, the shorter the transit time of CMEs/ICMEs, the more intense the GMSs; in particular, for AR events when $\Delta t_{p}$ declines from 4 to 1 day, Dst decreases on average from –100 to –470 nT and can reach – 900 nT. From the point of view of the nature of GMSs and their sources on the Sun, the obtained results mean that both the speed of CMEs/ICMEs and the strength of the magnetic field transported by them are largely determined by the parameters of the corresponding eruptions, in particular, by the eruptive magnetic flux and the released energy.

The powerful solar flares that occurred on September 4–10, 2017 are analyzed based on a quantitative diagnostics method for proton flares developed at the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, the Ionosphere and Radio-Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) in the 1970–1980s. We show that the fluxes and energy spectra of the protons reached the Earth with the energies of tens of MeV qualitatively and quantitatively correspond to the intensity and frequency spectra of the microwave radio bursts in the range of 2.7–15.4 GHz. Specifically, the flare of September 4 with a peak radio flux S ~ 2000 sfu at the frequency f ~ 3 GHz (i.e., with the soft radio spectrum) was accompanied by a significant proton flux J (>10 MeV) ~100 pfu and a soft energy spectrum with the index γ ~3.0, while the strong flare on September 10 with S ~ 21000 sfu at f ~ 15 GHz (i.e., with the hard radio spectrum) led to a very intense proton event with J (>10 MeV) ~1000 pfu with a hard spectrum (γ ~ 1.4), including the ground level enhancement (GLE72). This is further evidence that microwave radio data can be successfully used in diagnostics of proton flares independently of a specific source of particle acceleration at the Sun, in particular, with the IZMIRAN method.

Using data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) spacecraft in the 1 – 8 Å wavelength range for Solar Cycles 23, 24, and part of Cycles 21 and 22, we compare mean temporal parameters (rise and decay times, and duration) and the proportion of impulsive short-duration events (SDE) and gradual long-duration events (LDE) among C- and ≥ M1.0-class flares. It is found that the fraction of the SDE ≥ M1.0-class flares (including spikes) in Cycle 24 exceeds that in Cycle 23 in all three temporal parameters at the maximum phase and in the decay time during the ascending cycle phase. However, Cycles 23 and 24 barely differ in the fraction of the SDE C-class flares. The temporal parameters of SDEs, their fraction, and consequently the relationship between the SDE and LDE flares do not remain constant, but reveal regular changes within individual cycles and during the transition from one cycle to another. In all phases of all four cycles, these changes have the character of pronounced, large-amplitude “quasi-biennial” oscillations (QBOs). In different cycles and at the separate phases of individual cycles, such QBOs are superimposed on various systematic trends displayed by the analyzed temporal flare parameters. In Cycle 24, the fraction of the SDE ≥ M1.0-class flares from the N- and S-hemispheres displays the most pronounced synchronous QBOs. The QBO amplitude and general variability of the intense ≥ M1.0-class flares almost always markedly exceeds those of the moderate C-class flares. The ordered quantitative and qualitative variations of the flare type revealed in the course of the solar cycles are discussed within the framework of the concept that the SDE flares are associated mainly with small sunspots (including those in developed active regions) and that small and large sunspots behave differently during cycles and form two distinct populations.

Based on our tool for the early diagnostics of solar eruption geoeffectiveness (EDSEG tool; Chertok et al., 2013, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-012-0127-1; 2015, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-0140618-3; 2017, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-017-1081-8), we have analyzed space weather disturbances that occurred in early September 2017. Two flares, SOL2017-09-04120:33 (M5.5) and SOL2017-09-06112:02 (X9.3), accompanied by Earth-directed halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were found to be geoeffective. We extracted the associated extreme ultaviolet dimmings and arcades and calculated their total unsigned magnetic flux. This calculation allowed us to estimate the possible scales of the Forbush decreases (FDs) and geomagnetic storms (GMSs) in the range from moderate to strong, and they are close to the observed scales. More precisely, after the first eruption, an FD approximately equal to 2% and almost no GMS occurred because the Bz magnetic field component in front of the corresponding interplanetary CME (ICME) was northern. The stronger second eruption produced somewhat larger composite disturbances (FD approximate to 9.3% and GMS with indexes Dst approximate to -144 nT, Ap approximate to 235) than expected (FD approximate to 4.4%, Dst approximate to -135 nT, Ap approximate to 125) because the second ICME overtook the trailing part of the first ICME near Earth, and the resulting Bz component was more intense and southern. Both ICMEs arrived at Earth earlier than expected because they propagated in the high-speed solar wind emanated from an extended coronal hole adjacent to the active region AR12673 along their entire path. Overall, the presented results provide further evidence that the EDSEG tool can be used for the earliest diagnostics of actual solar eruptions to forecast the scale of the corresponding geospace disturbances. Plain Language Summary Space weather nonrecurrent disturbances such as geomagnetic storms and Forbush decreases of galactic cosmic rays are caused by coronal mass ejections that erupt from the Sun and propagate to Earth. We analyze such disturbances in connection with an outstanding outburst of solar flare activity that occurred at the beginning of September 2017 and compare their parameters with estimates from our tool for the early diagnostics of solar eruption geoeffectiveness. The estimates are based on measurements of the magnetic flux of the earliest coronal mass ejection manifestations in the extreme ultraviolet range such as bright coronal posteruptive arcades and areas with temporarily reduced brightness (so called dimmings). We demonstrate that this tool yields the earliest relatively correct estimates for the scales of geomagnetic storm and Forbush decreases despite the complexity of the near-Earth solar wind structures in September 2017.

In our previous articles (Chertok et al. in Solar Phys. 282, 175, 2013; Chertok et al. in Solar Phys. 290, 627, 2015), we presented a preliminary tool for the early diagnostics of the geoeffectiveness of solar eruptions based on the estimate of the total unsigned line-of-sight photospheric magnetic flux in accompanying extreme ultraviolet (EUV) arcades and dimmings. This tool was based on the analysis of eruptions observed during 1996 – 2005 with the Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) and the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). Empirical relationships were obtained to estimate the probable importance of upcoming space weather disturbances caused by an eruption, which just occurred, without data on the associated coronal mass ejections. In particular, it was possible to estimate the intensity of a non-recurrent geomagnetic storm (GMS) and Forbush decrease (FD), as well as their onset and peak times. After 2010 – 2011, data on solar eruptions are obtained with the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). We use relatively short intervals of overlapping EIT–AIA and MDI–HMI detailed observations, and additionally, a number of large eruptions over the next five years with the 12-hour cadence EIT images to adapt the SOHO diagnostic tool to SDO data. We show that the adopted brightness thresholds select practically the same areas of arcades and dimmings from the EIT 195 Å and AIA 193 Å image, with a cross-calibration factor of 3.6 – 5.8 (5.0 – 8.2) for the AIA exposure time of 2.0 s (2.9 s). We also find that for the same photospheric areas, the MDI line-of-sight magnetic flux systematically exceeds the HMI flux by a factor of 1.4. Based on these results, the empirical diagnostic relationships obtained from SOHO data are adjusted to SDO instruments. Examples of a post-diagnostics based on SDO data are presented. As before, the tool is applicable to non-recurrent GMSs and FDs caused by nearly central eruptions from active regions, provided that the southern component of the interplanetary magnetic field near the Earth is predominantly negative, which is not predicted by this tool.

We analyze the relations between various combinations of peak fluxes and fluences of solar microwave bursts at 35 GHz recorded with the Nobeyama Radio Polarimeters during 1990–2015, and corresponding parameters of proton enhancements with E>100 MeV exceeding 0.1 pfu registered by GOES monitors in near-Earth environment. The highest correlation has been found between the microwave and proton fluences. This fact reflects a dependence of the total number of protons on the total duration of the acceleration process. In the events with strong flares, the correlation coefficients of proton fluences with microwave and soft X-ray fluences are higher than those with speeds of coronal mass ejections. The results indicate a statistically larger contribution of flare processes to acceleration of high-energy protons. Acceleration by shock waves seems to be less important at high energies in events associated with strong flares, although its contribution probably prevails in weaker events. The probability of a detectable proton enhancement was found to directly depend on the peak flux and duration of a microwave burst. This can be used for diagnostics of proton enhancements based on microwave observations.

Around the peaks of substantial flares, bright spurious nearly horizontal saturation streaks (B-streaks) corresponding to the brightest parts of the flare sources appear in the STEREO/EUVI 195 Å images. We show that the length of these B-streaks can be used to solve the problem of evaluating the soft X-ray flux and class of far-side flares that are registered with the twin STEREO spacecraft, but are invisible from Earth. For this purpose, from data on about 350 flares that were observed from January 2007 to July 2014 (mainly exceeding the GOES M1.0 level) both with GOES and STEREO, we established an empirical relation that correlates the GOES 1 – 8 Å peak flux and the B-streak length. This allowed us to estimate the soft X-ray classes for approximately 65 strong far-side flares observed by STEREO for the same years. The results of this simple and prompt method are consistent with the estimations of Nitta et al. ( Solar Phys. 288 , 241, 2013a ) that were based on the calculations of the EUVI full-disk digital number output. In addition, we studied some features of the B-streaks in impulsive and long-duration flares and demonstrate that B-streaks in several consecutive EUVI images can be used to reconstruct a probable time history of strong far-side flares.

Multi-instrument observations of two filament eruptions on 24 February and 11 May 2011 suggest the following updated scenario for eruptive flare, CME and shock wave evolution. An initial destabilization of a filament results in stretching out of magnetic threads belonging to its body and rooted in the photosphere along the inversion line. Their reconnection leads to i) heating of parts of the filament or its environment, ii) initial development of the flare arcade cusp and ribbons, and iii) increasing similarity of the filament to a curved flux rope and its acceleration. Then the pre-eruption arcade enveloping the filament gets involved in reconnection according to the standard model and continues to form the flare arcade and ribbons. The poloidal magnetic flux in the curved rope developing from the filament progressively increases and forces its toroidal expansion. This flux rope impulsively expands and produces an MHD disturbance, which rapidly steepens into a shock. The shock passes through the arcade expanding above the filament and then freely propagates ahead of the CME like a decelerating blast wave for some time. If the CME is slow, then the shock eventually decays. Otherwise, the frontal part of the shock changes into the bow-shock regime. This was observed for the first time in the 24 February 2011 event. When reconnection ceases, the flux rope relaxes and constitutes the CME core-cavity system. The expanding arcade develops into the CME frontal structure. We also found that reconnection in the current sheet of a remote streamer forced by the shock's passage results in a running flare-like process within the streamer responsible for a type II burst. The development of dimming and various associated phenomena are discussed.

Solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the main drivers of the most powerful non-recurrent geomagnetic storms. In the extreme-ultraviolet range, CMEs are accompanied by bright post-eruption arcades and dark dimmings. The analysis of events of Solar Cycle 23 (Chertok et al. in Solar Phys. 282 , 175, 2013) revealed that the summarized unsigned magnetic flux in the arcades and dimming regions at the photospheric level, Φ, is significantly related to the intensity (Dst index) of geomagnetic storms. This provides the basis for the earliest diagnostics of geoefficiency of solar eruptions. In the present article, using the same data set, we find that a noticeable correlation also exists between the eruptive magnetic flux, Φ, and another geomagnetic index, Ap. As the magnetic flux increases from some tens to ≈ 500 (in units of 10 20 Mx), the geomagnetic storm intensity measured by the three-hour Ap index increases on average from Ap ≈ 50 to a formal upper limit of 400 (in units of 2 nT). The established relationship shows that the real value of the Ap index is not limited and during the most severe magnetic storms may significantly exceed 400.

We further study the relations between parameters of bursts at 35 GHz recorded with the Nobeyama Radio Polarimeters during 25 years and solar proton events (Grechnev et al. in Publ. Astron. Soc. Japan 65 , S4, 2013a ). Here we address the relations between the microwave fluences at 35 GHz and near-Earth proton fluences above 100 MeV to find information on their sources and evaluate their diagnostic potential. The correlation between the microwave and proton fluences is pronouncedly higher than between their peak fluxes. This probably reflects a dependence of the total number of protons on the duration of the acceleration process. In events with strong flares, the correlation coefficients of high-energy proton fluences with microwave and soft X-ray fluences are higher than those with the speeds of coronal mass ejections. The results indicate a statistically larger contribution of flare processes to high-energy proton fluxes. Acceleration by shock waves seems to be less important at high energies in events associated with strong flares, although its contribution is probable and possibly prevails in weaker events. The probability of a detectable proton enhancement was found to directly depend on the peak flux, duration, and fluence of the 35 GHz burst, while the role of the Big Flare Syndrome might have been overestimated previously. Empirical diagnostic relations are proposed.

This is the first of four companion papers, which comprehensively analyze a complex eruptive event of 18 November 2003 in active region (AR) 10501 and the causes of the largest Solar Cycle 23 geomagnetic storm on 20 November 2003. Analysis of a complete data set, not considered before, reveals a chain of eruptions to which hard X-ray and microwave bursts responded. A filament in AR 10501 was not a passive part of a larger flux rope, as usually considered. The filament erupted and gave origin to a coronal mass ejection (CME). The chain of events was as follows: i) a presumable eruption at 07:29 UT accompanied by a not reported M1.2 class flare probably associated with the onset of a first southeastern CME (CME1), which most likely is not responsible for the superstorm; ii) a confined eruption (without a CME) at 07:41 UT (M3.2 flare) that destabilized the large filament; iii) the filament acceleration around 07:56 UT; iv) the bifurcation of the eruptive filament that transformed into a large “cloud”; v) an M3.9 flare in AR 10501 associated to this transformation. The transformation of the filament could be due to the interaction of the eruptive filament with the magnetic field in the neighborhood of a null point, located at a height of about 100 Mm above the complex formed by ARs 10501, 10503, and their environment. The CORONAS-F/SPIRIT telescope observed the cloud in 304 Å as a large Y-shaped darkening, which moved from the bifurcation region across the solar disk to the limb. The masses and kinematics of the cloud and the filament were similar. Remnants of the filament were not clearly observed in the second southwestern CME (CME2), previously regarded as a source of the 20 November geomagnetic storm. These facts do not support a simple scenario, in which the interplanetary magnetic cloud is considered as a flux rope formed from a structure initially associated with the pre-eruption filament in AR 10501. Observations suggest a possible additional eruption above the bifurcation region close to solar disk center between 08:07 and 08:17 UT, which could be the source of the 20 November superstorm.

The geomagnetic superstorm of 20 November 2003 with Dst = -422 nT, one of the most intense in history, is not well understood. The superstorm was caused by a moderate solar eruptive event on 18 November, comprehensively studied in our preceding Papers I-III. The analysis has shown a number of unusual and extremely complex features, which presumably led to the formation of an isolated right-handed magnetic-field configuration. Here we analyze the interplanetary disturbance responsible for the 20 November superstorm, compare some of its properties with the extreme 28-29 October event, and reveal a compact size of the magnetic cloud (MC) and its disconnection from the Sun. Most likely, the MC had a spheromak configuration and expanded in a narrow angle of < 14 degree. A very strong magnetic field in the MC up to 56 nT was due to the unusually weak expansion of the disconnected spheromak in an enhanced-density environment constituted by the tails of the preceding ICMEs. Additional circumstances favoring the superstorm were (i) the exact impact of the spheromak on the Earth's magnetosphere and (ii) the almost exact southward orientation of the magnetic field, corresponding to the original orientation in its probable source region near the solar disk center.

We continue our study (Grechnev et al. (2013), doi:10.1007/s11207-013-0316-6; Paper I) on the 18 November 2003 geoffective event. To understand possible impact on geospace of coronal transients observed on that day, we investigated their properties from solar near-surface manifestations in extreme ultraviolet, LASCO white-light images, and dynamic radio spectra. We reconcile near-surface activity with the expansion of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and determine their orientation relative to the earthward direction. The kinematic measurements, dynamic radio spectra, and microwave and X-ray light curves all contribute to the overall picture of the complex event and confirm an additional eruption at 08:07 - 08:20 UT close to the solar disk center presumed in Paper I. Unusual characteristics of the ejection appear to match those expected for a source of the 20 November superstorm but make its detection in LASCO images hopeless. On the other hand, none of the CMEs observed by LASCO seem to be a promising candidate for a source of the superstorm being able to produce, at most, a glancing blow on the Earth's magnetosphere. Our analysis confirms free propagation of shock waves revealed in the event and reconciles their kinematics with "EUV waves" and dynamic radio spectra up to decameters.

Our analysis in Papers I and II (Grechnev et al., Solar Phys. 289, 289, 2014b and Solar Phys. 289, 1279, 2014c) of the 18 November 2003 solar event responsible for the 20 November geomagnetic superstorm has revealed a complex chain of eruptions. In particular, the eruptive filament encountered a topological discontinuity located near the solar disk center at a height of about 100 Mm, bifurcated, and transformed into a large cloud, which did not leave the Sun. Concurrently, an additional CME presumably erupted close to the bifurcation region. The conjectures about the responsibility of this compact CME for the superstorm and its disconnection from the Sun are confirmed in Paper IV (Grechnev et al., Solar Phys. submitted, 2014a), which concludes about its probable spheromak-like structure. The present article confirms the presence of a magnetic null point near the bifurcation region and addresses the origin of the magnetic helicity of the interplanetary magnetic clouds and their connection to the Sun. We find that the orientation of a magnetic dipole constituted by dimmed regions with the opposite magnetic polarities away from the parent active region corresponded to the direction of the axial field in the magnetic cloud, while the pre-eruptive filament mismatched it. To combine all of the listed findings, we propose an intrinsically three-dimensional scheme, in which a spheromak-like eruption originates via the interaction of the initially unconnected magnetic fluxes of the eruptive filament and pre-existing ones in the corona. Through a chain of magnetic reconnections their positive mutual helicity was transformed into the self-helicity of the spheromak-like magnetic cloud.

Low-temperature plasma ejected in solar eruptions can screen active regions as well as quiet solar areas. Absorption phenomena can be observed in microwaves as “negative bursts” and in various spectral domains. We analyze two very different recent events with such phenomena, and present an updated systematic view of solar events associated with negative bursts. Related filament eruptions can be normal, without essential changes of shape and magnetic configuration, and “anomalous.” The latter are characterized by disintegration of an eruptive filament and dispersal of its remnants as a cloud over a large part of the solar disk. Such phenomena can be observed as giant depressions in the He II 304 Å line. One of possible scenarios for an anomalous eruption is proposed in terms of reconnection of the filament's internal magnetic fields with an external large-scale coronal surrounding.