Mesophytic conifers Abies sibirica and Pinus sibirica have responded both negatively and positively to the changing hydroclimatic regime. We studied the dependence of A. sibirica growth on the elevational climatic gradient and bark beetle Polygraphus proximus attacks in the Kuznetsk Ala‐Tau Mountains, Siberia. We applied in situ measurements, dendroecology, remote sensing, and GIS analysis. We found that fir growth was moderated by atmospheric (vapor pressure deficit, VPD) and soil (Palmer’s scPDSI index) dryness. Growth dependence on air temperature switched from negative at low elevations (below ca. 1000 m a.s.l.) to positive within the timberline and treeline ecotones (around 1300 m). At low elevations, fir has been experiencing chronic water stress together with heatwaves since the warming onset in the 1970s. Drought‐weakened trees became the food base for the P. proximus outbreaks. Fir responded to bark beetle attacks by xylem lignification and by creating a mechanic ‐ chemical barrier within its tree rings, consisting of rows of ducts filled with polyphenol‐containing resin. Fir mortality was observed mostly at low elevations and was located mostly on sunlit slopes with shallow rocky soils. Meanwhile, within the timberline and treeline ecotones, fir is increasing its growth and migrating uphill at a rate of ca. 2.3 m/year. The insect outbreak range is limited to ~1100 m a.s.l., whereas the insect species range coincides with that of A. sibirica (~1400 m). At high elevations, beetles feed on weakened and felled trees. Nowadays, P. proximus become the major threat to fir forests. Fir regeneration has mostly survived due to water stress mitigation by the overstory. Its vigor and abundance are sufficient for fir recovery within the majority of the damaged area. However, sparse fir stands, shrub and grass communities cover ca. 30% of the devastated stands. The predicted increase in water stress and heatwaves will trigger cycles of bark beetle outbreaks and fir mortality with a consequent shrinkage of the fir range in the lowlands.

Changing hydrothermal regime leads to pronounced changes in growth and ranges of Siberian tree species that are mostly negative at the southern part of the trees' habitat. Here we analyzed the response of Larix sibirica and Populus laurifolia to moisture changes in unique refugia that border the Mongolian desert in Southern Siberia. The great age of old-growth larch trees (>500 years) suggests that the refugia have existed throughout the Holocene. We aimed to (1) analyze larch and poplar growth and range response to the changing temperature and moisture regime, (2) explore the potential migration of trees into the desert, and (3) analyze Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) dynamics within the refugia and adjacent desert. We used on-ground surveys, remote sensing data, and dendroecological analysis. We found that since the warming onset (c. 1980), larch and poplar trees have increased their growth and population within and beyond the refugia (+300% for poplar and +45% for larch). Both species' growth has been controlled by atmospheric and soil droughts (measured by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Self-Calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI)) and by microtopography-dependent moistening. Summer winds impair trees' growth via increased evapotranspiration. Both species were migrating to the southern sandy dunes. Although poplar is less drought-resistant than larch, it was shifting ahead of larch (5.6 m/year vs. 0.8 m/year). The mean and maximum treeline shifts were 260 and 450 m for poplar and 35 m and 70 m for larch. P. laurifolia occupied new climate-caused niches ahead of drought-resistant L. sibirica due to its higher prolificacy. We found a "desert greening" phenomenon, i.e., a significantly increasing GPP trend (R-2 = 0.31) in both refugia and sandy dunes. The GPP increase correlated with tree growth increase (r(2) = 0.36-0.39). The larch and poplar migration to the desert contradicts the predicted shrinkage of the tree ranges within their southern boundary. However, the projected increase in the moisture deficit by 2080-2100 may impair this phenomenon. Nevertheless, current changes in the hydrology regime are favorable for larch and poplar growth and expansion into the adjacent Mongolian desert.

Changes in the hydrological regime have strongly influenced mesophilic conifers throughout the boreal zone. We studied the growth and vitality of fir trees and regeneration within the zone of Abies sibirica Ledeb. dieback in the Eastern Sayan and Kuznetsk Alatau Mountains, Siberia. The peak of fir mortality occurred in 2013–2018, leading to the dieback of approximately 75

In the ecotones, trees growth and population are the most sensitive to the changing hydrothermal regime. Here we analyzed Larix sibirica and Populus laurifolia response to the moisture changes in the unique refugia that bordered the Mongolian desert in the southern Siberia. The age of old-growth trees (A>500 y) suggests that refugia have existed throughout the Holocene. We aimed to analyze (1) larch and poplar growth dependence on the climate variables, (2) treelines shift into the desert and (3) ground cover GPP (gross primary production) dynamics. We used on-ground survey, dendroecological analysis and remote sensing data. Beyond the refugia, trees were established after the warming onset in the study area (c. 1980). Since that, growth of both species has increased and has been controlled by atmospheric and soil droughts (measured by the SPEI and scPDSI indices, correspondingly). Summer winds impair trees’ growth via increased evapotranspiration. We found that both larch and poplar treelines shifted into southward sandy dunes. Although poplar is a less drought-resistant species, its treeline was shifting ahead of the larch one with a mean speed of 5.6 m/y vs 0.8 for larch. The mean and max treeline shifts were 260 and 450 m for poplar and 35 m and 70 m for larch. During the warming, the poplar population has dramatically increased (+300% vs + 46% for larch). P. laurifolia occupied climate-caused new niches ahead of drought-resistant L. sibirica due to its high anemophily and seed production. We found that increasing GPP trends in both refugia and in adjacent sandy dunes caused phenomenon of “desert greening”. The treelines migration into the desert contradict the predicted shrinkage of the tree range within its southern boundary. However, the projected increase of moisture deficit at the 2080–2100 may impair that phenomenon. Nevertheless, current changes in the hydrology regime are favorable for trees growth and expansion into the adjacent Mongolian desert.

Neutrino is considered as a superior astronomical messenger thanks to not being deflected or absorbed by interstellar medium. Detection of neutrinos from distant high-energy cosmic accelerators has been a long-standing problem emerged in the last quarter of 20th century. Only in 2013 was the diffuse cosmic neutrino flux discovered by the 1 km ^3 —scale IceCube neutrino telescope at the South Pole. Nevertheless evidence for sources of cosmic neutrino remain weak up to the present day. The Baikal-GVD neutrino telescope being built in Lake Baikal is the largest detector of this kind in the Northern Hemisphere. Presently an instrumented volume of the detector is about 0.5 km ^3 which allows the telescope to start contributing to the cosmic neutrino origin quest. In this report we discuss the motivation present the status and main results of the Baikal-GVD experiment.

Recent observations of the Galactic component of the high-energy neutrino flux, together with the detection of the diffuse Galactic gamma-ray emission up to sub-PeV energies, open new possibilities to study the acceleration and propagation of cosmic rays in the Milky Way. At the same time, both large nonastrophysical backgrounds at TeV energies and the scarcity of neutrino events in the sub-PeV band currently limit these analyses. Here, we use the sample of cascade events with estimated neutrino energies above 200 TeV, detected by the partially deployed Baikal Gigaton Volume Detector (GVD) in 6 yr of operation, to test the continuation of the Galactic neutrino spectrum to sub-PeV energies. We find that the distribution of the arrival directions of Baikal-GVD cascades above 200 TeV in the sky suggests an excess of neutrinos from low Galactic latitudes with the chance probability of 1.4 × 10 ^−2 . We also find the excess above 200 TeV in the most recent IceCube public data sets, both of cascades and tracks. The chance probability of the excess in the combined IceCube and Baikal-GVD analysis is 3.4 × 10 ^−4 . The flux of Galactic neutrinos above 200 TeV challenges often-used templates for neutrino search based on cosmic-ray simulations.

Permafrost thawing is potentially a crucial but poorly investigated factor that influences vegetation dynamics in the Arctic. We studied the permafrost thaw rate beyond the Polar Circle in Siberia. We analyzed its influence on the larch (Larix spp.) growth and Arctic vegetation (sparse larch forests, tundra, and forest–tundra communities) productivity (NPP). We checked the following hypotheses: (1) satellite gravimetry is valid for permafrost thawing analysis; (2) meltwater runoff stimulated trees’ growth and NPP. We used satellite (GRACE, Terra/MODIS) and field data, and larch tree radial growth index measurements. We found a continuous negative trend in the terrestrial water content (r2 = 0.67) caused by permafrost thawing beyond the Polar Circle. Runoff is maximal in West and Mid Siberia (9.7 ± 2.9 kg/m2/y) and decreases in the eastward direction with minimal values in the Chukotka Peninsula sector (−2.9 ± 3.2 kg/m2/y). We found that the growth increment of larch trees positively correlated with meltwater runoff (0.5…0.6), whereas the correlation with soil water content was negative (−0.55…−0.85). Permafrost thawing leads to an increase in the Arctic vegetation productivity. We found a positive trend in NPP throughout the Siberian Arctic (r2 = 0.30). NPP negatively correlated with soil water content (r = −0.55) and positively with meltwater runoff (West Siberia, r = 0.7). An increase in VPD (vapor pressure deficit) and air and soil temperatures stimulated the larch growth and vegetation NPP (r = 0.5…0.9 and r = 0.6…0.9, respectively). Generally, permafrost degradation leads to improved hydrothermal conditions for trees and vegetation growth and contributes to the preservation of the Arctic as a carbon sink despite the increase in burning rate.

The growth, survival, and mortality of conifer species in response to the hydrothermal regime have received considerable attention. It is expected that the highest sensitivity of trees to the warming-drying climate will occur mainly at the edges of the species ranges. We focused on the responses to climate change of the drought-resistant larch (Larix sibirica) and the moisture-sensitive Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) along the elevation gradient in the Tannu-Ola Ridge, the southern margin where those two species coexist in Siberia by using satellite data (MODIS, Landsat, and microwave), the indexes of gross (GPP) and net (NPP) primary productivity, and tree radial growth index (GI). We found that since the warming restart in the 2000s, the area of larch-dominated forests increased by ∼150

The Baikal-GVD deep-sea Cherenkov detector, whose deployment in Lake Baikal has been ongoing since 2016, currently represents the largest neutrino telescope in the Northern Hemisphere. The principle of the telescope’s operation is based on the registration of Cherenkov radiation produced by the products of neutrino interaction in the aquatic environment using the spatial structure of photodetectors. Laser light sources specially designed for the Baikal project are used to calibrate and measure the characteristics of the telescope’s detecting system. The article describes the design and features of the functioning of calibration laser sources, presents the results of their operation as part of the telescope, and discusses issues of further development of the laser-calibration system.

Climate models have predicted changes in woody plant growth, vitality, and species distribution. Those changes are expected mainly within the boundaries of species ranges. We studied the influence of changing hydrothermal and burning-rate regimes on relict pine stands at the southern edge of the Pinus sylvestris range in Siberia. We hypothesize that (1) warming has stimulated pine growth under conditions of sufficient moisture supply, and (2) increased burning rate has threatened forest viability. We found that the increase in air temperature, combined with the decrease in soil and air drought, stimulated tree growth. Since the “warming restart” around 2000, the growth index (GI) of pines has exceeded its historical value by 1.4 times. The GI strongly correlates with the GPP and NPP of pine stands (r = 0.82). Despite the increased fire rate, the GPP/NPP and EVI index of both pine stands and surrounding bush–steppes are increasing, i.e., the pine habitat is “greening” since the warming restart. These results support the prediction (by climatic scenarios SSP4.5, SSP7.0, and SSP8.5) of improvement in tree habitat in the Siberian South. Meanwhile, warming has led to a reduction in the fire-return interval (up to 3–5 y). Although the post-fire density of seedlings on burns (ca. 10,000 per ha) is potentially sufficient for pine forest recovery, repeated surface fires have eliminated the majority of the undergrowth and afforestation. In a changing climate, the preservation of relict pine forests depends on a combination of moisture supply, burning rate, and fire suppression.

Climate changes have led to an increase in fire rates throughout the entire range of larch (Larix sibirica, L. gmelinii, and L. cajanderi). We have tested the hypothesis that natural fires are an important factor that contributes to the functional stability and dominance of larch forests in the continuous permafrost zone. We include satellite imageries, on-ground survey data, dendrochronological measurements, and ecoclimatic variables in our analysis. We find that warming in the 21st century has led to an increase in the intensity and frequency of fires and moderate and extreme (>10 000 ha) burned areas. The maximal burn areas and fire frequency are observed in the northern and southern parts of the permafrost zone, respectively. The frequency of fires and burned areas are inversely exponentially dependent on precipitation, soil and ground cover moisture, and atmospheric drought, and they increase exponentially with an increase in air temperature. In the zone of continuous permafrost, larch successfully regenerates in burned areas (up to 500 000+/ha of seedlings). In the zone of island permafrost (the southern part of the study area), the number of regeneration is 2–3 orders lower, and regeneration is represented mainly by hardwood species. The increasing fire frequency in the south of the larch range contributes to the partial transformation of the forested areas into grass and shrub communities. There is a high probability that larch will retreat from its southern range during the process of continuous permafrost thawing. Gross primary productivity (GPP) in burned areas quickly (3–15 years) recovers to the prefire level. In combination with increasing GPP trends, that indicates that larch forests retain their function as a carbon sink despite the increasing fire rate. Under conditions of an increase in fire rate, the firefighting strategy must be changed. It is necessary to realize (1) the impossibility of the total suppression of fires and (2) the ecological significance of fires in the larch forests in the cryolithozone, in which fires are the most important factor supporting the health and dominance of larch forests. Alongside that, periodic natural fires reduce the likelihood of catastrophic fires. It is necessary to focus firefighting efforts on the areas of the most important social, natural, and economic importance, while controlling burning outside these areas by monitoring methods.

Изменения климата повлекли возрастание горимости во всем ареале лиственницы (Larix sibirica, L. gmelinii, L. cajanderi). В работе рассматривается гипотеза о роли пожаров как важного природного фактора, способствующего функциональной устойчивости и доминированию лиственничников в криолитозоне. Исследования проводились в ареале лиственницы в криолитозоне. Анализировались спутниковые снимки, данные наземных обследований и дендрохронологических измерений, эколого-климатические переменные. Установлено, что потепление в 21-м столетии повлекло увеличение интенсивности и частоты пожаров, средней и экстремальной (>10,000 га) площади гарей. Максимальные площади и частоты пожаров наблюдаются на севере и юге криолитозоны. Частота и площадь пожаров связаны обратными экспоненциальными зависимостями с осадками, влажностью почв и напочвенного покрова, атмосферной засушливостью, экспоненциально возрастая с повышением температуры воздуха. В зоне сплошной мерзлоты лиственница успешно возобновляется на гарях (до 500+ тыс./га сеянцев). В зоне островной мерзлоты (южная часть ареала) численность естественного возобновления на 2-3 порядка ниже, и возобновление представлено преимущественно мелколиственными породами. Возрастающая горимость на юге ареала лиственницы способствует трансформации лесных земель в травяно-кустарниковые сообщества. В процессе таяния многолетней мерзлоты высока вероятность сокращения зоны доминирования лиственницы в южной части ее ареала. Валовая первичная продуктивность (GPP) на гарях восстанавливается до предшествующего пожару уровня в течение 3-15 лет, что в сочетании с преимущественно возрастающими трендами GPP указывает на сохранение лиственничниками функции стока углерода несмотря на возрастающую горимость. В условиях возрастающей горимости требуются изменения в стратегии борьбы с пожарами. Необходимо осознать невозможность подавления всех пожаров и экологическую значимость пожаров в лиственничниках криолитозоны, где они представляют важнейший фактор сохранения лиственничников, а также снижают вероятность развития катастрофических пожаров. Важно сфокусировать борьбу с пожарами на территориях с приоритетной социальной, природной и экономической значимостью, контролируя пожары вне указанных территорий методами мониторинга. Climate changes have led to an increase in fire rates throughout the entire range of larch (Larix sibirica, L. gmelinii, L. cajanderi). We tested the hypothesis that natural fires are an important factor that contributes to the functional stability and dominance of larch forests in the continuous permafrost zone. We included satellite imageries, on-ground surveys data, dendrochronological measurements and eco-climatic variables into analysis. We found that warming in the 21st century has led to an increase in the intensity and frequency of fires, moderate and extreme (>10,000 ha) burnt areas. The maximal burn areas and fire frequency observed in the northern and southern parts of the permafrost zone, respectively. The frequency of fires and burned areas are inverse exponentially dependent on precipitation, soil and ground cover moisture and atmospheric drought, and increase exponentially with air temperature increase. In the zone of continuous permafrost, larch successfully regenerates in burnt areas (up to 500+ thousand/ha of seedlings). In the zone of discontinues permafrost (southern part of the study area) the number of regeneration is 2-3 orders lower and regeneration represented mainly by hardwood species. The increasing fire frequency in the south of the larch range contributes to the partly transformation of the forested areas into grass and shrub communities. There is a high probability of larch retreat from its southern range during the process of continuous permafrost thawing. Gross primary productivity (GPP) in burned areas quickly (3-15 years) recovers to the pre-fire level. In combination with increasing GPP trends, that indicates carbon- sink role of larch forests increasing fire rate. In conditions of fire rate increase, it necessary to change firefighting strategy. It is necessary to realize (1) the impossibility of the total fires’ suppression and (2) the ecological significance of fires in the larch forests in cryolithozone, in which fires are the most important factor of supporting larch forests health and dominance. Alongside with that, periodic natural fires reduce the likelihood of catastrophic fires. It is necessary to focus the firefighting on the areas of the priority social, natural and economic importance, controlling burning outside these areas by monitoring methods.

One of the light signatures in the Baikal-GVD neutrino telescope consists of hadronic and elec- tromagnetic cascades produced by charged interactions of electron and tau neutrinos. In the case of neutral current interactions, all flavors yield cascades. The background in the neutrino cascade channel arises mainly due to discrete stochastic energy losses produced along atmospheric muon tracks. In this contribution, a developed algorithm for the cascade event selection is presented.

This study focuses on the reconstruction of neutrino direction in the Baikal-GVD experiment using convolutional neural networks and graph neural networks. Monte Carlo simulation data are utilized, examining single-cluster events of atmospheric neutrinos with energies ranging from 10 GeV to 100 TeV. The performance of the proposed models is evaluated against the standard reconstruction algorithm by comparing their median angular resolutions. The results show that neural networks offer enhanced accuracy over the standard algorithm, particularly, in small polar angles.

Trees’ growth and areal responses to changing climate are primarily expected within the edges of the species range. Here, we compared the responses of Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica Du Tour), a moisture-sensitive species, and drought-resistant larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) at the southern part of their ranges in the Siberian Mountains (the Tannu-Ola Ridge). We study the species’ growth and proportion in the forests from forest-steppe to treeline ecotone along the elevation gradient. These studies are based on radial growth index (GI) analysis and GI dependence on the climate variables. We used satellite time series to detect the land cover changes (areas of larch and Siberian pine, as well as shrubs and birch). We compared trees’ GI before and after warming “restart” in the late 1990s. Generally, GI dependence on the air temperature was negative at elevations below c. 1600 m a.s.l., whereas GI dependence on the moisture variables (precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, and soil moisture) was positive for both species. Above 1600 m, increasing air temperatures stimulated species growth, whereas the influence of moisture variables was negative (for larch) or neutral (for Siberian pine). After the warming restart, the GI of both conifers increased in moisture-sufficient high elevations and treeline ecotone, whereas within low elevations (<1300 m), the GI was stagnant or suppressed. Both species’, especially Siberian pine, negative growth dependence on air temperature and positive dependence on the moisture variables strongly increased since the warming restart. We found a risen growth dependence of both species on the soil-stored water during the previous year (September–October), which smoothed moisture stress at the beginning of the growing season. Yet both species’ growth also suffered as a result of early spring warms. We found that larch is migrating in both uphill and downhill directions, while Siberian pine is migrating uphill only. Forests loss occurred at low elevations (<1300 m), whereas forest and shrub gain occurred at high (>2000 m) ones. The upper boundary of the forests and shrubs is migrating uphill at rates of about 0.8 and 0.3 m/y, respectively. We observed a decrease in Siberian pine proportion in the forests, whereas areas of larch and birch strongly increased (by 150% and 100%, respectively), which indicates the retreat of Siberian pine from its southern habitat. We suggested afforestation of the areas of Siberian pine mortality by the drought-tolerant larch species.

The growth and survival of trees in the Siberian Mountains are experiencing a strong influence on climate warming. We analyzed Siberian pine (SP, Pinus sibirica) growth within the treeline ecotone in high (>1000 m) and low (<900 m) lands. We used ground surveys, dendrochronology, and climate variable data analysis. We found a contrasting response of SP growth with increasing air temperature and moisture parameters along the elevation gradient. In the treeline ecotone and highlands, the tree’s growth has been increasing since warming onset in the 1970s, whereas in the lowlands, the initial growth increase switched to a growth drop since the beginning of the 2000s, with a consequent partial mortality of the Siberian pine forest caused by warming-driven water stress in combination with bark borers’ attacks. This mortality suggests the retraction of the Siberian pine range in the lowlands of the Siberian Mountains. The projected drought increase will likely lead to the substitution of Siberian pine with drought-tolerant species. The tree’s growth index (GI) dependence on air temperature and moisture variables includes two phases. In the first phase (since the warming onset in the 1970s), the trees’ GI was positively correlated with elevated temperature, whereas correlations with precipitation and soil moisture were negative. During the second phase (since the increase in warming in the 2000s), negative correlations between the GI and moisture variables switched to positive ones. The correlations of the GI with air temperature switched from positive to mostly insignificant. The wind’s influence on the trees’ growth changed from negative to insignificant since the 2000s within all elevation belts. Afforestation within the areas of Siberian pine mortality should not be based on the planting of Siberian pine but on drought-tolerant species such as larch (Larix sibirica) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris).

Changes in the hydrothermal regime of soils caused by the melting of the permafrost layer are the most important ecological factor in the dynamics of vegetation in the cryolithozone. The impact of soil thawing on the growth index (GI) of larch (Larix spp.) and on the gross and net primary productivity (GPP and NPP) of vegetation in the Arctic region of Central Siberia (sparse forests, tundra, and forest tundra) is investigated. The following hypotheses are tested: (1) gravimetric data allow us to assess the dynamics of water mass in soils; (2) thawing of frozen soils stimulates the growth of woody plants and the productivity of vegetation. This work uses methods of dendrochronology, field data, satellite gravimetry (GRACE survey), and remote sensing of GPP (Terra/MODIS survey). An analysis of gravimetric data has revealed a significant long-term trend of decreasing water mass in soils of the cryolithozone (R2 = 0.68). The amount of water released during melting is estimated at 6.4 ± 2.3 kg/m–2 per year. A close relationship was established between the GI of larch and GPP with moisture anomalies in soils (r = –0.7 and r = –0.9, respectively). The increasing temperature of the root zone and the deficit of water vapor moisture also have a positive effect on the GI of larch and the GPP value of vegetation as a whole (r = 0.6 and r = 0.6–0.9, respectively). It is established that pyrogenic carbon losses are significantly (two orders of magnitude) lower than the NPP value. Under conditions of waterlogged soils, which are typical for the Arctic, climate warming is accompanied by an improvement in the hydrothermal growth regime of the plant cover and contributes to an increase in the productivity of vegetation and the preservation of the cryolithozone status of a carbon sink area.

Warming-driven lightning frequency increases may influence the burning rate within the circumpolar Arctic and influence vegetation productivity (GPP). We considered wildfire occurrence within the different Arctic sectors (Russian, North American, and Scandinavian). We used satellite-derived (MODIS) data to document changes in the occurrence and geographic extent of wildfires and vegetation productivity. Correlation analysis was used to determine environmental variables (lightning occurrence, air temperature, precipitation, soil and terrestrial moisture content) associated with a change in wildfires. Within the Arctic, the majority (>75%) of wildfires occurred in Russia (and ca. 65% in Eastern Siberia). We found that lightning occurrence increase and moisture are primary factors that meditate the fire frequency in the Arctic. Throughout the Arctic, warming-driven lightning influences fire occurrence observed mainly in Eastern Siberia (>40% of explained variance). Similar values (ca. 40%) at the scale of Eurasia and the entire Arctic are attributed to Eastern Siberia input. Driving by increased lightning and warming, the fires’ occurrence boundary is shifting northward and already reached the Arctic Ocean coast in Eastern Siberia. The boundary’s extreme shifts synchronized with air temperature extremes (heat waves). Despite the increased burning rate, vegetation productivity rapidly (5–10 y) recovered to pre-fire levels within burns. Together with increasing GPP trends throughout the Arctic, that may offset fires-caused carbon release and maintain the status of the Arctic as a carbon sink.

Throughout the larch range, warming leads to frequent fires and an increase in burned areas. We test the hypothesis that fires are an essential natural factor that reset larch regeneration and support the existence of larch forests. The study area included Larix sibirica and L. gmelinii ranges within the permafrost zone. We used satellite-derived and field data, dendrochronology, and climate variables analysis. We found that warming led to an increase in fire frequency and intensity, mean, and extreme (>10,000 ha) burned areas. The burned area is increasing in the northward direction, while fire frequency is decreasing. The fire rate exponentially increases with decreasing soil moisture and increasing air temperature and air drought. We found a contrasting effect of wildfire on regeneration within continuous permafrost and within the southern lowland boundary of the larch range. In the first case, burnt areas regenerated via abounded larch seedlings (up to 500,000+ per ha), whereas the south burns regenerated mostly via broadleaf species or turned into grass communities. After the fire, vegetation GPP was restored to pre-fire levels within 3–15 years, which may indicate that larch forests continue to serve as carbon stock. At the southern edge of the larch range, an amplified fire rate led to the transformation of larch forests into grass and shrub communities. We suggested that the thawing of continuous permafrost would lead to shrinking larch-dominance in the south. Data obtained indicated that recurrent fires are a prerequisite for larch forests’ successful regeneration and resilience within continuous permafrost. It is therefore not necessary to suppress all fires within the zone of larch dominance. Instead, we must focus fire suppression on areas of high natural, social, and economic importance, permitting fires to burn in vast, larch-dominant permafrost landscapes.