With China's reform and opening up, China's economic and people's living standard continuously improved, so the number of private car ownership increased. To predict the private car ownership in China was helpful for the study on automobile industry and the field of road, energy, environment pollution and so on. Through extension classified model, this paper uses the related data of private car ownership in China in 2002-2011 and its influencing factors to carry out the interval prediction of private car ownership in China in 2011. The prediction result is 71.2645-74.2389 million, the actual is 73.2679 million which belongs to this range. The results show that the extension clustering model as a short-term interval prediction method can be applied to the study of private car ownership in China.

This paper is based the amount of private car ownership as the historical data from China's 2000 to 2012, applying the nonlinear regression function of spss to establish logistic model for long term prediction of private cars ownership, through this paper can be concluded, established logistic curve equation is not only good for long term prediction of private car ownership, but also good for making macro management policy of our country automobile aspect.

Taking the two cases of different step length and initial time series, according to the calculation results using formula 1, the dynamic series linear trend forecasting methods and parameters evaluation law are inferred and mathematical proof and verified examples are carried out to the law, and based on this, formula 2 and 3 are put forward. Through the discussion of this paper, it can be concluded that, according to the linear trend prediction method, the forecast value has nothing to do with the first value of the time sequence, also has nothing to do with the step length between time series, as long as the step length between the time sequences is equal, the predicted value is the same, and in arithmetic progression.

With the improvement of Shanghai Futures Exchange's status in the international financial market and the increasing demand for copper of economic development in China, the research on Shanghai copper futures prices becomes more important. Through spss curve estimation and nonlinear regression method, this article carried on the short-term prediction of middle price of Shanghai copper future, and analyzed several polynomial prediction equation using excellfunction of generating line chart. Considering these equations comprehensively, cubic polynomial equation is reasonable.

近年来，随着旅游电子商务的蓬勃发展，国内外学者对旅游电子商务的研究也越来越多。目前对于旅游电子商务的评价研究，大部分还是定性的。本文采用模糊综合评价法对云南省三类旅游电子商务网站--传统旅行社电子商务网站、电子商务公司运营的旅游电子商务网站以及政府机构运营的旅游电子商务网站进行绩效评价研究，结果显示传统旅行社旅游电子商务网站运营绩效最好，旅游电子商务公司次之，最后是政府机构，进而提出改善旅游电子商务网站绩效的相关策略。

The geological disasters would affect the development of the tourism activities,even would make the complete destruction or chaos of the tourism industry.According to the tourism destination image formation process and influence factors of perception,this paper analyzed the influence of geological disasters for tourism destination image perception,putforward measures to rebuild the tourism destination image perception from the process of before the tourism activities,tourism activities and after the end of tourism activities,targeted to efficiently recovery the tourism destination image and be able to get a high level of rebuilding.

With the development of regional economic cooperation and the particular location of Yunnan Province,the direct investment of Yunnan's small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) to GMS regions has been developing increasingly fast in recent years.This paper,adopting Fuzzy AHP method,establishes an evaluation system and makes quantitative analysis on the competitiveness of the SMEs' direct investment by comparing with that of the SMEs in Sichuan Province and Guangxi Province.It arrives at the conclusion that the competitiveness of SME in Yunnan Province runs after those in Sichuan Province and goes ahead of those in Guangxi Province.The paper then proposes some tactics to enhance the competitiveness of SMEs' foreign investment to GMS regions.

China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) was established on 1st, Jan, 2010. The rapid development of bilateral trade asks for a smooth and efficient international channel for both sides. Yunnan province borders Vietnam, Laos and Burma and is fairly close to Thailand and Cambodia. This paper takes ASEAN countries as a whole and makes analysis on the problems of international channel construction between Yunnan Province and ASEAN countries with a bilateral perspective and proposes some suggestions.

Multi-objective decision method is a kind of decision analysis method from the mid 1970s.The method has been widely used in population,environment,education,energy,traffic,economic management,and other fields.This paper uses the Lexicographic Method of Multi-objective decision method and makes some researches on the multi-objective problem using the excel solver tool and an example to illustrate.

Copper as an important resource in the process of development of the world economy is playing an more and more important role.Copper is widely used in construction,decoration,electric wire and cable manufacturing etc.Copper price is important not only for enterprise decisions,but also for mining right evaluation.This paper takes the annual medium prices of the copper as historical data,uses the polynomial fitting method to estimate the price based on the scatter plot diagram.Based on the same data,it uses respectively the excel add a trend line method and the variable substitution method for a nonlinear fitting,the first approach is preferred after an integrated appraisal.

This paper introduces the basic conception of compound option and studies in the civil and overseas,and discusses the application of compound option in the investment decision of mining projects and using the geske model to validate it in a real example.The result show that using compound option theory in the investment decision of mining projects can better reflect the uncertainty and managerial flexibility in a way.