Abstract Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) present an ongoing threat of human infections. Continuous surveillance is important for detecting new infections and verifying prevention and control measures. Swabs of the external environment and throat swabs of employees were collected from six farmers’ markets in Beijing to detect influenza A virus. Positive samples were sequenced, and their genetic characteristics analyzed. In total, 3251 environmental samples were collected from 2019 to 2023, 11 of which were positive for influenza A virus (positivity rate of 0.34%), including nine for H9N2 and two for H7N9. In a genetic analysis, all H7N9 samples showed low pathogenicity, and no mutations at highly pathogenic sites were detected. All 1135 throat swab samples from staff were negative for influenza A virus. At present, the detection rate of AIVs in farmers’ markets is very low, and no adaptive mutations allowing cross-host transmission were found, indicating a low risk of AIV infection among the people of Beijing.

Ecological corridors have recently garnered increasing international attention as promising biodiversity conservation models to study the effects of climate change. However, very few studies have characterized waterbird ecological corridors and their responses to environmental variations. Here, a hybrid model approach combining the least resistance model and circuit theory was applied to identify ecological corridors for four kinds of waterbirds (Grus japonensis, Grus grus, Cygnus cygnus, Mergus squamatus) in Northeast China. This region contains many wetlands that are rich in waterbird species and are important habitats and breeding grounds for waterbirds on the East Asia-Australia migration route. Our findings demonstrated that the least cost routes of different waterbird species and their pinch points (i.e., areas exhibiting high waterbird transit and density) have the potential to become waterbird ecological corridors. However, we observed substantial differences in the number of least-cost paths and the structure and distribution of ecological corridor networks due to differences in the number and distribution of waterbird core habitat patches. The number and distribution of pinch points were also different. Over 85% of the waterbird occurrence points were not far from the least-cost routes or the pinch points, indicating that the detected least-cost routes and the pinch points were not only ecological corridors for waterbirds but also priority areas for the conservation of waterbird habitat networks. The methods proposed herein could thus be used as a basis for the identification of multi-species waterbird ecological corridors in other countries, as well as forest bird ecological corridors at other scales.

玉米和稻谷是南方地区重要的饲料原料来源.本研究采用LI-6800便携式光合作用测定系统观测了温度和CO2浓度对长江中游平原水稻和玉米扬花期功能叶片光合参数的影响.结果表明:玉米扬花期功能叶片净光合速率对温度升高的敏感性高于水稻.温度升高提高了水稻功能叶片的光合速率.CO2浓度增加提高了扬花期水稻和玉米的最大光合速率.当温度条件相同时,在高CO2浓度条件下水稻比玉米更容易维持较高的光合速率.玉米功能叶片最大电子传递速率(Jmax)与最大羧化速率(Vcmax)的比值(Jmax/Vcmax)随温度升高而显著下降(P<0.05),而水稻Jmax/Vcmax值对温度升高无显著变化.温度升高与CO2浓度增加均可降低两种作物的叶片气孔导度和植物蒸腾速率.本研究发现,玉米功能叶光合参数及生化参数对高温环境较为敏感,即玉米的光合酶活性和光合能力比水稻更容易受到温度升高的抑制作用.建议未来应重视气温升高对玉米饲料资源带来的不利影响,在畜禽养殖中合理调整饲料原料供给结构,适当将稻谷作为饲料原料的替代来源之一,可以抑制因玉米价格上涨造成的饲养成本攀升,提高养殖效益,为新形势下畜牧业发展探索一条高效、可持续的发展道路,提升畜牧业发展的竞争力.

利用2012-2016年安徽省淮北市逐日用电负荷和气象要素数据,采用相关分析、回归分析、曲线拟合等统计方法,分析用电负荷的季节变化、周末/节假日效应变化规律,提炼主要气象影响因子并分析温度对负荷的1℃效应和负荷对最高温度的敏感性,构建趋势负荷和趋势方程,介绍将周末/节假日效应应用于气象负荷提取和不同预测模型的建立,采用趋势法建立逐日负荷预测的多元回归方程和曲线拟合方程,并针对趋势法的弱点提出2日增量法,建立相应的预测模型,其中2日增量法预测模型的历史拟合率和2017年试报应用均达到96％-97％,比趋势法高2％-3％,比目前的考核要求高4％-5％,提高了负荷预测精度.

基于2012-2018年安徽省淮北地区月用电负荷、宏观经济数据和气象观测资料,运用相关分析、多元回归分析和曲线拟合等方法,将实际用电负荷分解为趋势负荷和波动负荷,分析趋势负荷与经济数据的关系建立基于经济指标的趋势负荷预测模型,拟合率达到99.3％;研究波动负荷与气象因子的关系建立基于气象因子的波动负荷预测模型,拟合率达到97.8％;经测试模型的泛化能力较高,符合设计要求.将研究成果作为新的服务手段为电力部门提供更加专业、定量的服务产品,为淮北电网运营调度提供科学依据,取得了明显的社会经济效益.

The outbreak of H7N9 epidemic in human has seasonal changes. However, up to now there is no research on the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of the relative risk of human H7N9 infection, and the covariate combination that has a greater impact on the relative risk of human H7N9 infection in different seasons. This study used China as the study area to predict the seasonal relative risk of human H7N9 infection through a Bayesian hierarchical conditional autoregressive model (BHCAR), which including five covariates (population density, number of live poultry markets, average precipitation, average temperature, and average relative humidity), seasonal random effects, and spatial random effects. Moreover, the sensitivity of the Bayesian hierarchical model (BH) to predict the seasonal relative risk of human H7N9 infection by changing the parameter settings of the BH prior distribution was analyzed. It was found that the relative risk of human H7N9 infection in spring and winter had spatial random effects, but not in summer and autumn. In spring, autumn and winter, the combination of population density and the number of live poultry markets had a significant influence on the relative risk of human H7N9 infection. In summer, however, the relative risk of human H7N9 infection was largely affected by population density, the number of live poultry markets, average precipitation and average temperature. Further, the standard deviation of the normal distribution to which the covariate coefficient in the BH was subject seemed to have an influence on the prediction and fitting effect of the seasonal relative risk of human infection with H7N9.

气象探测是气象工作的重要组成部分,是气象工作的基础.为了促进环境保护工作的顺利发展,就必须提升预测气象的变化能力跟气象服务水平.如何做好气象探测环境保护,如何提高气象探测工作数据的精准性和科学性,已经成为气象部门面临的重要课题.本文主要分析了气象探测环境保护工作,并提出一些建议,仅此提供参考.

Analyzing and evaluating the examination database quality is very important for test management, and the results of its analysis are also essential to estimate the work of test and teaching.This research has built up an evaluation model through the method of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), which included three hierarchies.The first hierarchy was the target hierarchy (i.e.evaluation of the examination database).The second hierarchy was the rule hierarchy including three indicators (i.e.benefits of students from the examination database, quality of test questions, and operability of the examination database).The third hierarchy was the sub rule hierarchy including eleven indicators (i.e.acceptance of the database, testing professional knowledge level, prompting to study, quantity of test questions, question characteristics, coverage, types, difficulty, stability, system response time, easy usability).Based on the survey data of 68 postgraduates who have used the examination database, we applied the evaluation model based on AHP, the results have showed that the examination database was user-friendly and it could meet the requirements of postgraduate tests although the quality of test questions just passed the line.As a whole, the evaluation on the quality of the examination database based on AHP was good.

This paper applied an integrated spatial regression model to explore the associations between ten environmental variables and the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). A subtype H5N1 cases in wild birds and poultry in China, and to predict the spatial distribution of HPAI H5N1 relative risk. Here a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) incorporated with a variogram model through its random effects item, used as the spatial regression model. Four environmental variables were found to have significant effects, including annual mean temperature, poultry density, distance to lakes and wetlands, and distance to bird migration routes. The Root Mean Square Error of arbitrary 15 sample data was 11.56. Further, the high predicted relative risk areas of HPAI H5N1 were mainly in the Northwest, Middle, Southwest and Southeast part of China. With its simple structure and good prediction ability, this spatial regression model was very promising for predicting the risk of other disease.

Case base construction is of great significance for the promotion of case teaching. But at present there is no successful geosciences case library can be used as reference. So the construction and development of geosciences case library has significance to fill the gap. This article is about design and implementation of geosciences case database based on the JSF framework, PrimeFaces component and BootsFaces component library. This case bank not only has some functions, such as case search, case browse, case upload, case download, user interaction, but also can set videos, audios, pictures and texts in one. In particular, this geoscience case database can be running on both of PC side and mobile terminal. Therefore the geoscience case database has good prospects in application and promotion.

Based on the forecast field from the T639 numerical model and observational wind data,some indexes such as IW and other convective indexes were computed.A method for strong wind forecast during the summer half year was established in Huaibei,and the forecast results in 2011 were examined.The results show that quantitative and qualitative wind prediction results are achieved during the summer half year based on IW index from the T639 numerical model and some other indexes.Combining the various indexes and the simulated value from the T639 model,if three indexes are satisfied among four indexes,the strong wind will appear in Huaibei,otherwise it will not occur.Forecasted wind speed by IW index is relatively close to observational maximum wind speed.The two methods are indicative to strong wind forecast in Huaibei.Most strong wind weather could be forecasted accurate-ly,while the false alarm is significant and the missing forecast is not significant.

Based on the data from MICAPS,NCEP reanalysis data(2.5°×2.5°) and T213 data,climate characteristic and prediction of warm wind shear were studied by weather analysis and correction and so on.Rainstorm influence system was analyzed by atmospheric circulation situation.According to the various physical quantity change,the physical quantity thresholds of warm wind shear were gotten.3 levels of possibility quantity warning were made by contrast and correction.Rainstorm prediction automation display was realized,and prediction results were tested.

This paper models the impact of urbanization on infectious disease transmission by integrating a CA land use development model, population projection matrix model and CA epidemic model in S-Plus. The innovative feature of this model lies in both its explicit treatment of spatial land use development, demographic changes, infectious disease transmission and their combination in a dynamic, stochastic model. Heuristically-defined transition rules in cellular automata (CA) were used to capture the processes of both land use development with urban sprawl and infectious disease transmission. A population surface model and dwelling distribution surface were used to bridge the gap between urbanization and infectious disease transmission. A case study is presented involving modelling influenza transmission in Southampton, a dynamically evolving city in the UK. The simulation results for Southampton over a 30-year period show that the pattern of the average number of infection cases per day can depend on land use and demographic changes. The modelling framework presents a useful tool that may be of use in planning applications.

Based on factor analysis method and ARCVIEW technology,taking central Liaoning Urban Agglomeration as an example,this paper makes a comprehensive assessment on the socio-economic development at county level,and reveals the actual characteristics and evolving characteristics of spatial disparity of urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2005.The results are as follows.Firstly,factors that mainly influence the interior development differentiation of Central Liaoning Urban Agglomeration are economic scale,social development,and industrial structure.Their weighs are different,and the economic scale had changed from second factor to first one from 2000 to 2005,which indicates that these three factors are not in a harmonious condition and the economy scale had been the main factor to prompt the comprehensive development of the urban agglomeration.Secondly,at county level,estimated by indexes,the absolute differentiation of comprehensive development level is smaller than that of economic scale,social development and industrial structure.Thirdly,Shenyang City and Anshan City have been both centers of Central Liaoning Urban Agglomeration,and north-south disparity and east-west disparity are forming.Fourthly,variability of comprehensive development level of county is severe,and it shows north-south disparity. By and large,comprehensive development level of county decreases step by step from a central county to a marginal county in the administrative region of a city.Finally,most counties were not in the harmonious development condition,and the harmonious degrees of most counties had descended from 2000 to 2005.