Heavy non-ferrous smelting industry is one of the main fields of carbon emission reduction and carbon peak. It is urgent and important to find out the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission of heavy non-ferrous smelting industry and conduct GHG accounting in heavy non-ferrous smelting industry. However, the method of GHG emission accounting in non-ferrous smelting industry has not been updated for many years, which brings great difficulties to the further development of GHG accounting work in non-ferrous industry under the new form of "double carbon". In this paper, a typical lead smelting enterprise is taken as an example to study the carbon dioxide (CO2) emission accounting, and the existing problems of GHG accounting in heavy non-ferrous smelting enterprises are discussed, and suggestions for further optimization are put forward.

基于CWRF(climate extension of WRF)区域气候模式的动力降尺度预测技术对夏季降水预测存在一定偏差,难以实现准确预测.本文立足于中国区域夏季降水特点,分析与夏季降水相关的气象要素,采用树突(dendrite,DD)网络与人工神经网络(artificial neural networks,ANN)相结合的方法,针对CWRF模式回报的1996—2019年夏季降水量进行订正,检验其订正效果.结果表明:人工树突神经网络(artificial dendritic neural network,ADNN)算法模型订正的中国夏季降水量整体好于CWRF模式历史回报,距平相关系数和时间相关系数较订正前均提高约0.10,均方误差下降约26％,趋势异常综合检验评分提高6.55,表明ADNN机器学习方法能够对CWRF模式夏季降水预测实现一定程度的订正,从而提高该模式降水预测精度.

利用高分辨率的气象台站观测资料、再分析资料、卫星遥感资料等,结合高分辨率区域气候模式模拟,对西北地区以及祁连山、天山、六盘山和三江源等试验区的降水场、气流场、水汽场等时空特征开展了研究.结果表明:精细化的降水资料能够刻画出西北试验区复杂地形条件下的降水场时空特征,研发的小时降水融合算法对西北地区高频降水分析是有效的;涝年,由于高原抽吸作用,试验区受低层形成的辐合气流所控制,容易形成降水;旱年,高原地表不存在大范围的辐合区,试验区被干冷的偏北风所控制,不利于成云降水.利用模式资料,分析了西北地区及四个试验区水汽场月、季、年气候特征,分析了水汽来源、大气可降水量、水汽收支情况以及年际变化情况.对MODlS和FY卫星反演的水汽产品进行了校准,并对西北地区水汽含量的气候特征进行了分析.

The sub-seasonal characteristics and prediction of rainfall over the South China Sea and surrounding areas during spring-summer transitional season (April-May-June) are investigated using a full set of hindcasts generated by the Dynamic Extended Range Forecast operational system version 2.0 (DERF2.0) of Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration. The onset and development of Asian summer monsoon and the seasonal migration of rain belt over East Asia can be well depicted by the model hindcasts at various leads. However, there exist considerable differences between model results and observations, and model biases depend not only on lead time, but also on the stage of monsoon evolution. In general, forecast skill drops with increasing lead time, but rises again after lead time becomes longer than 30 days, possibly associated with the effect of slowly-varying forcing or atmospheric variability. An abrupt turning point of bias development appears around mid-May, when bias growths of wind and precipitation exhibit significant changes over the northwestern Pacific and South Asia, especially over the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea. This abrupt bias change is reasonably captured by the first two modes of multivariate empirical orthogonal function analysis, which reveals several important features associated with the bias change. This analysis may provide useful information for further improving model performance in sub-seasonal rainfall prediction.

ABSTRACTThis study evaluates total cloud fraction (TCF) and top‐of‐the‐atmosphere cloud radiative effects (CREs) in five widely used reanalyses (CFSR, ERA‐Interim, JRA55, MERRA2, and NCEP1) using satellite‐based observations for the period 2001–2014, with the emphasis on the Asian monsoon region (AMR) including East Asia (EA) and South Asia (SA). The results indicate that despite certain biases, most reanalyses (especially CFSR and ERA‐Interim) broadly capture global spatial patterns of TCF and CREs, with pattern correlations with the observations being greater than 0.7, and also generally reproduce the pronounced contrast of the winter and summer means over EA and SA. In contrast, biases and differences in TCF and CREs in reanalyses are significantly larger over the AMR, particularly in summer. Over EA, the reanalyses underestimate annual and winter mean TCF, shortwave CRE (SWCRE), and net CRE (NCRE), with negative biases of 0–40%. Over SA, the reanalyses broadly reproduce the observed annual cycles of each CRE component, but most of them have considerable biases in magnitude, with an overestimation of NCRE by up to 90%, and an unrealistic ratio of longwave (LWCRE) to SWCRE. Such an unrealistic relationship between LWCRE and SWCRE in some reanalyses may produce an unrealistic annual mean state, annual cycle, and inter‐annual variation of NCRE over SA. Comparatively, ERA‐Interim and JRA55 give better performance in the annual cycle and inter‐annual variations of CREs over EA. The inter‐annual biases of TCF and NCRE in CFSR are substantially larger over SA while its TCF reproducibility over EA is the best of the reanalyses. The examination of TCF in MERRA2 with the satellite simulator shows that larger TCF biases occur over the AMR region relative to original satellite and MERRA2 products. It requires more quantitative comparison among reanalyzed and satellite‐retrieved cloud properties to identify and improve cloud parameterization.

Clouds covers about 60% of the Earth.They have both cooling and warming effects on the Earth-atmosphere system by reflecting solar radiation and absorbing the longwave radiation from the Earth and the atmosphere under clouds, thus influencing the radiation budget of the system significantly.At the same time, clouds play a key role in regulating the atmospheric water circula-tion by affecting the atmospheric water transport and precipitation.They are important water vapor regulator in the atmosphere.However,the previous IPCC assess-ment reports and lots of researches point out that clouds have been the most important but uncertain factor in cli-mate change and climate prediction so far.If low clouds increase by 4%,they can offset 2~3℃warming due to carbon dioxide concentration doubling.Oppositely, it will expand the corresponding warming effect.East Asi-an locates in the Asian monsoon zone,which is also the high emission zone of greenhouse gases and atmospheric pollutants,which makes the region possess distinct re-gional features in cloud-radiation-precipitation proces-ses.The current deviation and uncertainty in climate modeling in the East Asian region are all related to the process of cloud radiation and its feedback.Therefore, it's necessary to investigate the influence and mechanism of clouds on the radiation budget,temperature and pre-cipitation in this region, which can provide scientific basis for estimating the global warming scenarios accu-rately and then for our government to make policies on protecting the environment and mitigating global war-ming, and supporting international diplomacy negotia-tions on climate change.

An instantaneous-heating air source heat pump water heater with a temperature stratified water tank was put forward. The instantaneous-heating air source heat pump water heater was designed to produce hot water instantly by three modes, namely condenser heating, water tank heating and condenser-water tank joint heating. The heating mode is chosen as condenser heating when the ambient temperature is above 20°C (including 20°C) and is chosen as condenser-water tank joint heating below 20°C. A 3HP instantaneous-heating air source heat pump water heater was built and tested in an Enthalpy Lab. Influences of refrigerant charge, throttle step, compressor frequency on heat capacity, and heat coefficient of performance were analyzed, and the effect of thermal stratification of the buffer tank and the operation performances in various conditions (according to China’s National Standard GB-23137) were tested. The results showed that the instantaneous-heating air source heat pump water heater can generate 42°C and 6 L/min hot water at ambient temperatures of 20°C and 43°C with heat coefficients of performance (of the instantaneous-heating air-source heat pump water heater) of 4.5 and 12.7 respectively, and at ambient temperature −7°C with a heat coefficient of performance (of the heat pump module) of 2.76. It also showed that the advantage of the system is the compressor’s suction and exhaust pressures in certain working conditions are steady and the effect of the temperature stratification of the buffer tank is significant. In conclusion, the instantaneous-heating air source heat pump water heater has great application value for household.

Using the snow cover fraction（SNC） output by 8 WCRP CMIP3climate models under SRES A2,A1B and B1 scenarios,the trend of SNC in East Asia in future is analyzed.Results show that SNC is likely to decrease in East Asia continent,where SNC decreases the fastest in spring（MAM）,then winter（DJF） and autumn（SON）,and the slowest in summer（JJA）,under the same scenario.In spring and winter,the SNC decreases faster in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau than in northern East Asia,while in autumn there is little difference between them.As for different scenarios,SRES A2 has the largest decrease trend,then A1B,and B1 has the least trend.The decrease of SNC is mainly caused by the changes of surface air temperature and snowfall,but they have different contributions to SNC trend in different regions and seasons.

Based on monthly and annual precipitation at 48 stations from 1957 to 2008 in Henan Province,the normality of the precipitation was analyzed by using the skewness and sharpness coefficient methods. The results show that the monthly and annual precipitation at most of the stations do not obey the normal distribution,however,their square/cube root obey the normal distribution better. For half of the stations,their original series of annual precipitation obey the normal distribution. The biggest skewness coefficient occurs in the original series,and the smallest in the cube root series,which is applicable for all stations and months. The positive bias is found in all the original series and most of the square root series,and the negative bias is found in most of the cube root series. The sharpness coefficients are all positive for the original series,which is positive or negative for square and cube root series.

<正>政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第四次评估报告指出,强降水事件的发生频率在多数陆地地区呈增加趋势[1]。观测研究[2]表明,我国的极端强降水平均强度和极端强降水值都有增加的趋势,极端强降水事件也趋于增

Surface shortwave radiation(SSR) plays an important role in surface energy balance.The ability to simulate the disposition and variation of SSR in CGCMs has direct effects on climate projection for the future.Especially the simulation on East Asia monsoon may be affected by the impacts of SSR on surface thermal condition.So it is necessary to validate the ability of CGCMs to simulate SSR in East Asia.By use of 18 CGCMs output provided by WCRP CMIP3 and ERA40 reanalysis data,the ability of GCMs to simulate East Asia SSR is validated through ensemble analysis.The simulation shows remarkable differences among models.The simulated SSR and clear-sky SSR are generally higher than ERA40,while the effect of cloud on SSR(SSCRF) is generally weak.Multi-model ensemble is simulated at about 8.7 W/m2 and 3.4 W/m2 for SSR and clear-sky SSR respectively,and about 5.3 W/m2 lower for SSCRF as compared to ERA40.The standard deviation(STDEV) among different models is 9.6,7.8 W/m2 and 8 W/m2 for SSR,clear-sky SSR and SSCRF,respectively.The phase characteristics are simulated well for seasonal variation of zonally-averaged SSR,although there is a great gap in magnitude.The simulation is obviously higher in the south of 30°N,especially in summer hemisphere,which is 30—50 W/m2 higher,mainly due to combined effects of low simulation on SSCRF and overestimation of clear-sky SSR both of which have a positive deviation on the SSR simulation.In the north of 30°N,SSR is mainly low by simulation due to the higher simulation of SSCRF.The root mean square deviation(RMSD) in summer is higher than in winter.Multi-model ensemble of RMSD is 34.7,17.1 W/m2 and 29.1 W/m2 for SSR,clear-sky SSR and SSCRF,respectively,which shows the great effect of cloud on SSR modeling.The STDEV of different model RMSD is 12.5,11.3 W/m2 and 10.2 W/m2,respectively,showing little difference.The linear decrease in annual downscaling SSR can be simulated rather well by multi-model ensemble.However,for clear-sky downscaling SSR and downscaling SSCRF,the simulation is not good,in other words,the decrease trend of clear-sky downscaling SSR is overestimated by models,while the adverse trend of downscaling SSCRF is given as compared to ERA40.

Radiation is an important process in atmosphere.Currently the radiative parameterization schemes used in climate models are mainly simplified arithmetic,which show great uncertainty in climate change projection.To better understand the effects of radiative parameterizations on cloud and radiation simulation,a new parameterization scheme,Fu-Liou scheme,is introduced into NCC/IAP T63 AOGCM to replace the old scheme,Morcrette scheme. NCC/IAP T63 AOGCM is a spectral model with triangular truncation at wave number 63.The horizontal resolution is 1.875°×1.875° for both atmosphere and ocean component,and there are 16 and 30 vertical layers for atmosphere and ocean respectively.The main differences between two radiative schemes are in such aspects as division of waveband,approximation for radiative transfer,and treatment of cloud layer overlap in radiation calculation.In Fu-Liou scheme,the waveband is divided into 18 sub-wavebands,6 for shortwave and 12 for long wave,while there are only 8 sub-wavebands(2 for shortwave and 6 for long wave) in Morcrette scheme.Fu-Liou scheme adopts δ-four-stream approximation which has high calculating accuracy,and uses the binary cloud when calculating the cloud effects on radiation.Two 20-year integrations are processed by use of the two schemes respectively.The first 10 years are used for coupling adjustment,and the last 10 years for analysis.Two types of monthly mean data,40-year reanalysis data of European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)(ERA-40) and data from Earth Radiation Budget Experiment(ERBE),are used to verify the results. The effects of the two schemes on the simulation of cloud and radiation are analysed in detail.The main results are as follows: Firstly,the incident radiation at TOA simulated by two schemes differs obviously,which is mainly caused by the difference in radiative arithmetic.Secondly,in clear sky the shortwave absorption of Fu-Liou scheme is generally lower than Morcrette scheme,especially in middle and high latitudes of winter hemisphere.The planetary albedo simulated by Fu-Liou scheme is closer to ERBE data than Morcrette scheme between 60°S and 60°N,mainly due to the improvement of simulation on clear-sky albedo.Thirdly, the simulated net radiation at TOA in Fu-Liou scheme is improved obviously as compared with Morcrette scheme except for part of the east Pacific and east Atlantic where the cloud cover decreases remarkably in winter.Finally,the low stratocumulus simulated by Fu-Liou scheme decreases remarkably,which is caused by the weakening of static stability over ocean.The high cloud increases obviously,mainly due to the intensifying of convection in tropical region,as compared with Morcrette scheme.Although the cloud cover decreases,the use of binary cloud increases the cloud shortwave absorption in Fu-Liou scheme which improves the weak absorption in Morcrette scheme in some degree.

Using NCC/IAP T63 atmosphere-ocean coupled model,its sensitivity to cloud droplet effective radius is analysed.Results show that the cloud extinction optical depth changes obviously in the lower part of troposphere when interactive liquid cloud droplet radius is introduced(REL and REL_CAM3 scheme),however,optical depth shows a distinct change with different position and sign between the two schemes,and it decreases remarkably in the upper troposphere when the interactive ice cloud droplet radius(REI scheme) is used.As a result,cloud radiative forcing changes remarkably,which is mainly affected by REI scheme,and shows a decrease trend for both short and long wave radiative forcing.The global-averaged net cloud radiative forcing at top of atmosphere is more sensitive to change of ice cloud droplet radius,but they both simulate the correct sign compared to ERA-40 data although large disparities exist in magnitude.The change of net radiation at top of atmosphere is basically consistent with that of net cloud radiative forcing,generally characterized by decrease.The change of surface air temperature(TAS) shows consistent distribution basically between REL and REI scheme,that is,TAS mainly decreases in summer,and it increases obviously in the middle of Eurasian continent and north of North America.In the continent the TAS change is mainly affected by the transportation of surface heat to atmosphere,but that is inconsistent in the ocean area.When interactive liquid and ice cloud droplet radius are introduced together(RIW and RIW_CAM3 scheme),TAS shows remarkable nonlinear response(mostly locating in continental area),contrast to the quasi-linear response of optical depth and cloud radiative forcing.

2007年4月16日,由退休将军组成的美国海军分析中心军事咨询委员会发布了《国家安全与气候变化威胁》报告,从军事角度评估了气候变化对美国国家安全的潜在威胁。这是继2003年10月美国国防部给布什政府提供的一份秘密报告《气候突变的情景及其对美国国家安全的意

Based on the physical mechanism of hydrological process,a parameterization scheme for regional averaged evapotranspiration with statistical-dynamic theory is established in the moist climate region.The regional averaged evapotranspiration is supposed to be constituted of the evaporation from bare land surface and the evapotranspiration from vegetation surface.At the same time the influence of proportion of saturation and non-saturation area of surface soil humidity in the examination region on the estimation of the evaporation or the vapotranspiration is considered.A expression for estimating regional averaged evapotranspiration is educed by means of the probability density function of soil humidity over heterogeneous surface for moist climate region.The reliability and workability of the expression are proved in the Yangtze Delta region.