Food systems in sub-Saharan Africa are increasingly exposed to severe climate shocks, yet the point at which resilience fails remains unclear. We test a limits-to-resilience hypothesis using a balanced panel of 32 countries from 1990 to 2023, combining a Food System Resilience Index (FSRI) with five dimensions of shock exposure to identify the shock intensity at which FSRI no longer buffers undernourishment. We identify a resilience threshold at 30% population affected by droughts or floods (95% CI: 24–36%), below which FSRI reduces undernourishment, and above which protection disappears. Resilience erodes non-linearly, and repeated shocks impose a substantial hidden burden: observed undernourishment exceeds the no-shock counterfactual by 3.5 percentage points, equivalent to 18 million additional undernourished people per year. Eastern and Central Africa, including Somalia, Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, show the highest combined exposure, low resilience and severe food insecurity. The threshold is stable across time, geography and alternative nutritional outcomes, including child stunting. These findings identify a measurable limit to food system resilience and support proactive, tiered interventions before coping capacity is exhausted.

Since joining the WTO, China has seen rapid growth in agricultural imports, accompanied by the signing of an increasing number of regional trade agreements (RTAs). This study aims to investigate how RTAs influence China's agricultural imports using HS 6-digit level data on agricultural trade and tariffs between China and its 121 partner countries from 2002 to 2021, with a focus on disentangling the respective roles of tariffs and non-tariff changes. The research finds that both tariffs and non-tariff changes of China's RTAs significantly boost agricultural imports, with non-tariff changes exerting a stronger effect, and the effects are larger for imports from developing countries. By product, tariff cuts broadly raise imports but are weak or even negative for sensitive cereals and animal products, whereas non-tariff changes mainly facilitate imports in land, capital, and technology-intensive and processed sectors, including horticultural and animal-based products, where China lacks comparative advantages.

Extant literature reviews primarily concentrated on the effects of food and agricultural trade on economic growth, while its outcomes for environmental externalities have also received increasing attentions. Hence, this study compiles a systematic literature review of the research examining the effect of international food and agricultural trade on environmental development, focusing on China. The results indicate that some studies have concentrated on the use/overexploitation of natural resources, notably on virtual land and virtual water, in Chinese international food and agricultural trade. Others have focused on climate-related problems, such as carbon emissions and nitrogen flow embodied in trade. These findings reveal hotspots of environmental concerns in China's international food and agricultural trade. China's food and agricultural trade affects its domestic and partner environments through natural resource (e.g., virtual water and virtual land) transfer, changes in agricultural production structure (e.g., cropping land use change), and the exchange of environmental pollutants. The insights provide important policy recommendations, such as diversifying import sources in food and agricultural trade to reduce environmental risks and future priorities in food and feed crop trade and resource use.

The welfare of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is pivotal for achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with the agricultural sector playing a vital role. Many SSA nations increasingly rely on agricultural foreign direct investment (AFDI) to enhance agricultural development and welfare. However, the impact of AFDI on welfare remains controversial and poorly understood. This study employs panel data and moments quantile regression to examine AFDI's effect across 45 SSA countries from 1990 to 2022. Results indicate a significant positive effect on the Human Development Index (HDI) as the welfare indicator, with a one-unit rise in AFDI linked to a 0.002%-0.008% increase in HDI. When the HDI is decomposed into income, education, and life expectancy, a one-unit increase in AFDI correlates with increased income levels ($0.001) and life expectancy (0.002 years). Further analysis identifies a threshold of $5.77 million of AFDI beyond which its positive impact on HDI declines. Findings suggest that sustained and consistent AFDI enhances sustainable development and overall welfare in the SSA.

Although global food security (SDG2: Zero Hunger) remains a critical challenge, few studies have systematically examined how policy inefficiencies and institutional responses contribute to food insecurity outcomes. This study addresses this gap by analyzing data from 120 countries (2000-2022) via a multicriteria decision analysis framework that integrates data envelopment analysis and quadrant analysis, guided by the pressure-state-response-impact (PSRI) framework. The findings reveal critical regional differences: North America, East Asia, and Europe achieve high food security outcomes, whereas Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia continue to face severe deficits across all dimensions. South America has demonstrated progress in availability and utilization, but struggles with access. A key issue identified is the persistent gap between policy design and implementation. High-income regions achieve strong outcomes due to effective execution, whereas low-income regions experience suboptimal results despite having formal policy frameworks. Furthermore, the multidimensional nature of food insecurity complicates problem-solving, as improvements in one area often fail to address deficiencies in others. Limited market support and weak institutions further exacerbate food insecurity in low-income regions, hindering strategy effectiveness. The study emphasizes the need to bridge the divide between policy formulation and execution, tailor strategies to specific regional contexts, and address systemic weaknesses across all dimensions of food security. These findings offer critical insights into global food security dynamics and inform more effective, equity-oriented approaches to achieving the goal of Zero Hunger.

[Objective]Agricultural and rural modernization needs to be grounded in both general global patterns and unique Chinese characteristics.From a global perspective,investigating its evolutionary trends and influencing factors is of great significance for advancing China's comprehensive rural revitalization.[Method]This study constructed an evaluation index system incorporating two dimensions:agricultural modernization and rural modernization.Based on the measurement of agricultural and rural development levels in 152 countries from 2000 to 2022,three-dimensional kernel density estimation and spatial Gini coefficient were employed to reveal the evolutionary trends of global agricultural and rural modernization.Furthermore,the optimal-parameter geographical detector was utilized to identify the intensity and interaction effects of socio-economic and agricultural factors.[Result]Over the past two decades,global agricultural and rural modernization level has shown a steady upward trend.The gap between low-income and middle-income countries has been narrowing annually,yet a substantial gap with high-income countries persists.China has made remarkable progress in its agricultural and rural modernization,with its international ranking climbing from 78th to 57th.Regarding general patterns,economic development level remained a key driver.The roles of industrial structure and agricultural trade openness have become increasingly prominent.The contribution of agricultural technological progress remained important but exhibited a diminishing marginal trend,while the impact of agricultural land use structure was characterized by long-term complexity.In terms of differentiated patterns,informatization level was the primary driver for low-and lower-middle-income countries to achieve catch-up,whereas its influence diminished in upper-middle-and high-income countries.Population aging has become the dominant constraint hindering agricultural and rural modernization in middle-income countries,with a relatively minor impact on high-income countries.Environmental protection intensity showed significant differentiated effects across different income groups.The proportion of negative interaction effects between factors in low-income country groups has significantly decreased.Interaction effects among factors in lower-middle-income country groups have entirely transitioned to positive synergistic effects.Synergistic enhancement effects were prevalent among factors in upper-middle-income and high-income country groups.This indicated that the spatial-temporal differentiation of global agricultural and rural modernization was a result of the combined influence of socio-economic and agricultural factors.[Conclusion]In advancing comprehensive rural revitalization,China should adhere to a"dual-driven"approach of concurrently promoting agricultural modernization and rural modernization.It was crucial to coordinate the relationships among economic development,social progress,and environmental protection to ultimately achieve integrated urban-rural development.

Purpose The trade-enhancing effect of regional trade agreements (RTAs) has been proved by many studies, while the differential roles of tariffs and non-tariff changes in RTAs have received little attention. This paper attempts to explore the source of trade effects of RTAs. Design/methodology/approach This paper focuses on 12 RTAs signed by China and decomposes the trade effect of RTAs into tariff and non-tariff effects using a structural gravity model. We further examine the heterogeneous effects of the two measures at national and product levels. Findings This research finds that (1) though RTAs have promoted China’s agricultural exports overall, non-tariff changes of RTAs show a negative effect; (2) tariff changes have a more significant promoting effect on China’s exports to developing countries than to developed countries, but non-tariff changes also have a significant opposite effect on the exports to these countries and (3) the trade effects of tariff changes do not exhibit significant heterogeneity at the product level, while non-tariff changes significantly hinder exports of agricultural products that China has comparative advantages in. Research limitations/implications Since only 12 RTAs signed by China are considered, although this could reflect the trade effects of tariffs and non-tariff changes of RTAs signed by developing countries, we believe it would be more interesting and meaningful to carry out further work on its impact on developed countries’ agricultural exports and compare it with the result of developing countries. We leave this comparison for future studies. Practical implications It is suggested that member countries should pay more attention to non-tariff changes and reach deeper RTAs to achieve a more transparent trading environment. And it is crucial to evaluate the effect of the RTAs and solve trade barriers timely. Originality/value The number of RTAs has been increasing. However, non-tariff barriers (NTBs) have also risen during the past 20 years. The question “What roles are tariffs and non-tariff changes of RTAs playing respectively” has yet to be answered. Decomposing the trade effects of RTAs and exploring the source of their trade effects help us better understand and utilize trade policy tools.

A major component of contemporary agriculture is machinery. Nonetheless, in Kenya and other African nations, the rate of adoption of agricultural machinery remains quite low. Understanding the fundamental causes and their impacts on agricultural output is crucial. Using data collected from a household survey of 1,499 farmers in Western Kenya, this study employed the endogenous switching regression model to examine the use of chisel harrows and their effects on maize production. Results show that the adoption of the chisel harrow was positively impacted by factors such as farm size, credit accessibility, gender, extension contact, and education attainment, while factors such as age and market proximity had a negative impact. The yield per hectare was higher for adopters than for non-adopters. According to the counterfactual analysis results, those who utilized chisel harrow tools were able to achieve a higher yield (1512 kg/ha) than they would have if they had not used the equipment (1099 kg/ha). The average maize yield per hectare increased by 413 kg and 217 kg for adopters and non-adopters, respectively, when chisel harrows were used. It is concluded that while training and field demonstrations may also be held to increase farmers’ understanding of the benefits of the chisel harrow, encouraging farmers to adopt the tool has the potential to improve low production in the surveyed regions.

Agriculture trade helps countries capitalize on the untapped benefits of their agro-climatic, geographic, and socio-economic endowments to maintain food security. Vegetables among the crops grown in Pakistan hold a key position. Despite the agricultural potential, Pakistan's vegetables have a negative trade balance. Since China is Pakistan's largest trading partner offering a huge market, this study explores the potential trade opportunities in the vegetable sector between China and Pakistan aiming to overcome the trade deficit, and evaluates the trade specialization and competitiveness of vegetable products between China and Pakistan. We employed the Revealed Comparative Advantage index, Symmetric Revealed Comparative Advantage index, Imports Revealed Comparative Disadvantage, and Trade Complementarity index. Results indicated that China and Pakistan have a comparative advantage in vegetable trade, however, a notable distinction between the degree and products exhibit comparative advantage. China exports and Pakistan imports are highly complementary. Further, the studied indices revealed that some products are exactly the same. China has export comparative advantage while Pakistan has a comparative import disadvantage, indicating a potential trade gap. The results demonstrated that China Pakistan Free Trade Agreement positively impacts the two-sided vegetable trade. However, the potential of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is not fully exploited. Finally, suggestions were put forward to strengthen bilateral trade for mutual benefit.

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a global development strategy proposed by China, has received extensive attention from researchers in the field of international trade and development economics. However, little is known about the BRI's effect on bilateral agricultural trade. This paper quantifies the effect of BRI on global agricultural trade, especially between China and BRI participating countries, based on structural gravity models and the General Equilibrium Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (GEPPML) method. Our results show that BRI has a significant and positive impact on global agricultural trade. BRI not only improves the agricultural trade between China and its BRI partners but also stimulates agricultural trade between BRI participating and non-participating countries, indicating a pure trade creation effect. We find the heterogeneous effect of BRI in participating countries regarding per capita income, showing an increase in agricultural exports from China to non-high-income BRI countries but a reduction in exports from China to high-income BRI countries. It highlights the importance of considering specific economic status when formulating trade agreements with trade partners. We find the significant positive impact of BRI on welfare gains, particularly for consumers in China and producers in BRI participating countries. Meanwhile, BRI leads to a reallocation of China's agricultural imports away from the United States and Brazil towards neighboring BRI participating countries.

Being one of the significant conduits linking international and domestic markets, agricultural trade is an area of study that commands attention. While it may bring about transnational carbon emission transfers, it begs the question: does it promote carbon reduction in a country's agricultural sector? Such an inquiry holds profound implications for optimizing agricultural trade and promoting low-carbon agricultural advancement. Utilizing two-way fixed effect model, mediating effect model and dual-fixed spatial Durbin model, this paper examines the impact effects, mechanisms and spatial characteristics of agricultural trade openness (ATO) on agricultural carbon reduction using panel data from Chinese provinces spanning 2000 to 2021. The main findings include: (1) ATO markedly and positively influences the reduction of agricultural carbon emissions (ACE), this conclusion maintains its validity under endogeneity treatment and robustness tests. (2) ATO contributes to reducing ACE through three intermediary channels: scale effect, technological effect, and structural effect. (3) From a spatial perspective, a notable positive spatial spillover effect is observed from agricultural trade openness to agricultural carbon reduction, with the spatial carbon reduction effect being more apparent. (4) The spatial carbon reduction effect of agricultural trade liberalization exhibits heterogeneity across different natural geographical locations and levels of ATO. The study confirms the vital role of ATO in promoting agricultural carbon reduction in typical countries, underscoring the urgency and importance of bolstering cross-border agricultural trade cooperation and domestic agricultural product circulation in the domain of climate change.

In the backdrop of criticism that the China-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement has disproportionately favored China, particularly in agricultural trade, there has been a surge in Pakistan’s imports, leading to a trade deficit. This study attempts to evaluate the impact of CPFTA 1&2 on the vegetable exports of Pakistan which is an important sector of the agricultural industry. A panel data set of Pakistan’s vegetable exports to its trading partners from 2003 to 2021 was analyzed with the extensively used gravity model of trade. The vegetable export data was sourced from the International Trade Centre (ITC) which is based on the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. The results suggest that the China-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement (CPFTA-I) has a positive association with Pakistan’s vegetable exports to China. However, trade liberalization with Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, and Malaysia plays a more substantial role in driving Pakistan’s vegetable exports. CPFTA-II has not had a measurable or statistically significant impact on the vegetable exports of Pakistan as this period was highly influenced by COVID-19. The results of colonialism variables show that Pakistan is exporting more to countries with the same colonial history. Moreover, the results of the geographical variable suggest that Pakistan should explore more close markets to expand vegetable exports. Policy implications suggest the need to reduce trade costs, leverage CPEC infrastructure, enrich trade relations with neighboring countries, and involve business professionals in policy negotiations.

改革开放以来,我国肉类产业快速发展,生产能力不断提高.肉类产量已占世界总产量的近三成,以满足国内市场为主,只有少量出口,出口量约占世界总出口的3％.主要肉产品猪肉、禽肉、牛肉和羊肉均为净进口,需要通过国际市场来保障国内供应.随着居民消费不断升级,我国肉产品需求将持续增加,保障国内肉类自给的压力将不断加大(刘长全, 2021).尤其是受新冠肺炎疫情、非洲猪瘟事件、环保压力等因素叠加影响,国内猪牛羊等肉类产品稳定供应将面临一定挑战.在此背景下,我国既需要考虑适度进口来弥补国内产需缺口,也需要有效化解国际市场对国内肉产品市场的冲击影响(丁溪等, 2015).分析我国肉类比较优势及全球肉类市场的贸易流向和变化趋势,对于实现我国肉产品高水平自给显得至关重要.

The number of hungry people is on the rise and more efforts are needed to improve the global food security status. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) proposes more investment in the agricultural sector to boost production and alleviate hunger. However, there are fewer papers that distinguish enterprises investment from public investment. In this case, we take advantage of detailed investment data in the fDi Markets database to explore the global patterns of agricultural investment. In particular, we identify the top destination countries based on aggregate and sub-sectoral agricultural investment data. Then we investigate the relationship between agricultural investment and food security, which is measured by per capita protein intake. Finally, we propose some suggestions from the investment motivation perspective to help food-insecure countries to attract overseas investment. We find that developed countries are the primary sources of global agricultural investment and these sources have been becoming more diverse in the past decade. It implies the trend towards a more inclusive investment environment worldwide. However, the global distribution of agricultural investment is uneven as food-insecure countries only receive 20% of the global agricultural investment. The top three destination countries, USA, China, and Russia, have a relatively high food security level. In contrast, countries suffering from food insecurity receive fewer investment projects, and most of which are on a small scale. Given the limited socio–economic development status in food-insecure countries, it is essential for all levels of society to help them and contribute to ending hunger.

Participating in the global agricultural value chain is an important measure to safeguard a country’s food security and enhance its competitiveness and influence of the agricultural industry. Based on the TiVA database and the UN COMTRADE database, this paper estimates the participation and status of 64 countries in the global agricultural value chain, uses social network analysis to construct a network of global agricultural foreign investment outflow, and empirically analyzes the impact of the agricultural foreign investment layout on a country’s participation in the global agricultural value chain. The results show that the global network of agricultural foreign investment outflow is currently dominated by developed countries. Network centrality and network heterogeneity have a significant positive effect on a country’s position in global value chain, that is, the higher a country’s centrality and the more dispersed its investment, the higher its position in the value chain. Network scale has a negative impact, and the advantages of scaling up blindly is difficult to offset the high risks of agricultural foreign investment outflow. Based on the research findings, this article proposes suggestions for improving the status of the value chain by optimizing the layout of agricultural foreign investment outflow in different links, deepening the existing agricultural foreign investment outflow network, and gradually intergrating into the network dominated by developed countries.

It is of great significance to grasp the position of the United States on Sino-US agricultural trade and cooperation prospects for promoting Sino-US agricultural economic and trade cooperation under the momentous changes never seen in the last one hundred years.In this paper, six typical American official and think tank research reports in recent five years are selected to analyzes the US cognition and prospect under the current circumstance of Sino-US agricultural trade and cooperation.The results show that US officials and think tanks generally believe that Sino-US trade frictions have harmed the interests of US farmers. The China-US phase-one economic and trade agreement has played a positive role in promoting Sino-US agricultural trade, but it has also been questioned for its “managed trade”. Sino-US agricultural cooperation is in the common interest of both sides. But it still needs to overcome cooperation challenges such as imperfect business environment and geopolitical conflicts, and making efforts to find the solution of common problems in global and bilateral agricultural development.Considering the public opinion basis of mutual benefit and complementary advantages of industry practice, we suggest to take food security and climate change as the key areas, take reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers as the key direction, take agricultural states and other groups as the key objects, take Sino-US agricultural cooperation as the breakthrough point, and take the in-depth expansion of international multilateral cooperation as a guarantee, so as to promote Sino-US agricultural trade and cooperation under the momentous changes never seen in the last one hundred years.

党的二十大报告要求"确保粮食、能源资源、重要产业链供应链安全".评估并降低主要农产品进口风险,对于保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义.本文从市场贸易、流通运输、政治经济三个方面构建指标体系,评价了 2001年以来中国主要农产品的进口风险水平及其演变特征.结果表明,中国农产品进口风险总体趋于增加,进口来源高度集中、进口规模巨大;五大主要品种中,谷物、肉类的进口风险趋于下降,奶类进口风险波动较小,油料、糖料进口风险处于高位;进口风险种类包括高对外依存度风险、价差驱动风险、进口来源集中风险、政治经济风险与运输风险;进口风险受金融危机全球贸易网络传导、中美贸易摩擦升级与新冠疫情等多重因素影响.建议从立足大食物观优化农产品进口布局与政策设计、注重全球农产品供应链治理、积极推进自贸区及全球农业经贸合作、强化对全球农产品贸易市场运行风险的监测与调控等方面综合施策,切实降低农产品进口风险,确保国家粮食安全.

农业上市公司作为现代农业发展的领军者,对推动农业产业化起着至关重要的作用.我国农业上市公司普遍经营多元业务,甚至涉足非农领域,分析多元化经营对农业上市公司绩效的影响,对其优化经营战略、带动农业产业化发展具有重要意义.文章利用2011-2018年我国34家农业上市公司的面板数据,分析多元化经营对企业绩效的影响及企业能力对其的调节作用.结果显示:农业企业多元化经营日益普遍,以涉农多元化居多,非农多元化相对较少;农业企业过多涉足其他行业不利于提高企业绩效,长期将影响主业发展;效率较高的农业企业,其多元化与企业绩效呈U型关系.因此,农业企业应更加聚焦主业发展,慎重决定多元化经营的时机与方式,在不同发展阶段采取差异化的多元化发展路径,注重整合与统筹跨行业资源;政府需要重点做好信息共享、风险担保与政策支持工作,共同着力,确保农业企业实现稳健且可持续的多元化发展.

本文基于中国与RCEP其他成员国农产品贸易现状,采用中国一般均衡模型(CGE)量化模拟RCEP协定实施对中国农业的影响.结果表明,RCEP协定实施有利于中国以更低的价格保障大宗农产品有效供给和满足国内居民食物消费升级需求,在贸易创造效应的作用下,中国从RCEP国家进口的农产品增加;在贸易转移效应的作用下,中国从世界其他国家进口农产品数量将出现不同程度下降;中国与RCEP国家的农产品贸易具有弱竞争性,RCEP实施不会冲击中国农产品市场;城镇居民将从农产品关税下降中获益,由于面临产业竞争,农村居民社会福利将略有下降.