研究快速城市化地区的景观格局演变及生态环境承载力,对其实现可持续发展具有重大意义.以江苏省南京市为例,基于2010、2015、2018年3期土地利用数据,揭示土地利用的时空变化及景观格局演变特征;利用耦合主成分分析法和云模型对生态环境承载力进行评价;同时,分析土地利用变化特征对景观格局和生态环境的影响.结果表明:(1)南京市2015—2018年土地利用变化较2010—2015年明显,以建设用地对耕地的占用、水域对耕地面积的补给为主.其中,建设用地扩张集中于浦口区东部,水域面积减少主要位于高淳区西部.(2)受土地利用变化影响,景观格局呈现出相应演变特征.相较于2010—2015年,区域景观结构在2015—2018年的变化幅度更大.(3)2010—2018年南京市的生态环境承载力隶属于中级承载水平且随时间推移略有提升,这与南京市重视耕地资源保护、促进城市绿地建设息息相关,但人口压力与空气质量改善进度的相对滞后使得资源问题和大气污染成为生态环境压力的主要来源.

对农业面源污染的地区进行敏感性等级划分,从而针对不同等级的地区因地制宜地开展不同标准、不同力度的治理工作.选取化学需氧量(COD)、总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)排放强度作为农业面源污染敏感性等级评价的3个指标,按照不敏感(Ⅰ)、轻度敏感(Ⅱ)、中度敏感(Ⅲ)、高度敏感(Ⅳ)4个等级确定分级标准,采用熵权法确定各指标权重,提出了一种基于云模型的农业面源污染敏感性等级评价方法,并引用某流域28个县(区、市)的数据进行实例验证与分析.结果表明,对最大隶属原则有效度属于最低效范围的结果施行加权平均原则,可提升评价结果的可信度;采用云模型进行农业面源污染敏感性等级评价,可信度达96.4％;相比GIS技术,云模型对中度、高度敏感级别的模糊评价更倾向严格,对这些地区的面源污染治理要求提出更高标准.研究结果表明该方法具有可行性,可为农业面源污染地区科学制定治理措施、配置治理资源提供有益参考.

In order to establish an accurate equivalent model of a hybrid offshore renewable energy conversion farm,a non-mechanism equivalent modeling method is proposed. Based on transfer functions,a non-mechanism equivalent model was developed to describe the nonlinear relation between inputs and outputs. Then the decoupling parameter identification method was applied to the model,and parameters of transfer functions were identified using the ant colony algorithm. Furthermore,a phasor model of a hybrid offshore renewable energy conversion farm,consisting of wind,tidal,and wave turbines,was built in Matlab/Simulink. With the model,the input and output data of the farm were acquired under the influences of wind,tidal,wave,and voltage disturbances. Finally,a transfer function model was built based on the collected data,and model parameters were identified. With the obtained parameters,the outputs of the equivalent model were calculated. The error between outputs of the equivalent model and the simulation model is very small,verifying the feasibility of the non-mechanism equivalent model in building the hybrid offshore renewable energy conversion farm.

For compact alliance in construction,reasonable project risk-sharing is the foundation of effective risk control. At the perspective of ef-fective risk control,combining with the actual operation and related research of alliance in construction,the influencing factors of risk-sharing sys-tem was established and the complex network relationship of the factors was analyzed. A risk-sharing of alliance in construction ANP model based on risk control was established through ANP method with the solution based on triangular fuzzy number. A case study shows that the proportion for risk-sharing based on ANP model can help control risk,the willingness of risk-sharing and organizations operating mechanism needs of alliance is also considered fully,and the result is scientific and rational.

By refining the influencing factors of risk-sharing,an ANP model for risk-sharing of alliance in construction is established.In the ANP model,we take the membership matrix which comes from the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation as information basis,and give the objective weight based on the information entropy.Combining the objective weight with the subjective weight,the comprehensive weight of the ANP model is given based on the theory of relative entropy,and the best proportion for risk-sharing which aggregates the different preference information effectively is also solved.Finally,a numerical example is used to demonstrate the feasibility and practicability of the presented approach.

Effective and fair profit distribution is the precondition to ensure the steady cooperation and efficient operation for a joint bidding alliance.According to certain principle of profit distribution and actual operation of joint bidding alliance,the influence factors of income distribution of a joint bidding alliance is analyzed.By introducing data envelopment analysis(DEA) and its relative theories,an initial DEA model is established for profit distribution in considering effectiveness.Then,a modified planning model for profit distribution is derived in the view of fairness.A case study shows that the model established for profit distribution is effective and rational.

选择恰当的EMC运作模式有利于降低节能项目开展风险,提高运作效率。在介绍EMC内涵及其运作模式的基础上,识别并分析了建筑节能EMC项目内部及外部风险因素,从而建立了EMC项目风险因素集。利用模糊综合评判法求得EMC项目的综合风险,通过考虑决策者的风险偏好,构建了基于风险偏好的效用最大化决策模型,从而为建筑节能领域中EMCo的模式选择决策提供依据。

PPP模式已逐渐在城市轨道交通中得以运用。城市轨道交通为准公共物品,该性质决定了政府对其予以财政补贴支持的必要性。在明确轨道交通补贴方式的基础上,识别并分析了城市轨道交通项目的政策性亏损和政策性优惠的组成,从而确定了轨道交通的补贴基数。通过考虑激励机制,构建了轨道交通的激励模型,最后重新设计了轨道交通的补贴机制。