利用2016—2018年厦门的日流感样病例资料和气象资料,进行统计分析和Spearman相关性分析.研究发现,厦门流感样病例高峰期在春季,次高峰在秋季和初冬,流感样病例数与气温、相对湿度和风速等气象因子存在相关性和滞后性.当前一天气温日较差在2℃以下和8℃以上、平均气温在16～26℃之间、前五天平均风速在0～1m/s之间时,流感样病例数较高.较强等级以上的冷空气过程会使流感样病例数发生明显增长,强冷空气过程的流感样病例数周环比增长率可达41.6％.综上所述,厦门流感流行具有明显的季节性,与气温、相对湿度和风速等气象因素存在相关性.

The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data substituted for the observed data in this article as the actual climate situation. Base on change of Subtropical High was related with Tropical Cyclones(TC) activities in western North Pacific, the first day of Subtropical High ridge located between 25 °N and south of 30 °N(i.e. Subtropical High northward jumping day) in one year during 1980—2013 was analyzed. By analyzing and selecting three related advanced climatic variables as predictive factors, a multiple linear regression model for the Subtropical High northward jumping day during 1980—2008 was built. The regression model performed well during 2009—2013, as which could describe the interannual variation of Subtropical High jumping day. It was showed that the day of the first TC that made landfall on China was positively correlated with Subtropical High northward jumping day, and after which in 1~7 days, TC from western North Pacific made landfall on China in most of the years. During the early(late) years of Subtropical High northward jumping days, the average position of monsoon trough during May and July in western North Pacific was more eastward(was not developed yet), and zonal wind convergence anomaly was centered on south of monsoon trough(the anomaly center was more eastward and northward than which in the early years). In addition, the subtropical high was more northward(southward), while the day of the first TC made landfall on China would be early(late).

利用1961-2012年华南逐日降水资料,分析了太平洋海温场两种不同时间尺度背景下华南前汛期持续性暴雨的统计特征,并探讨了海洋外强迫信号可能对华南前汛期降水的低频变化周期造成的影响,以期为华南前汛期持续性暴雨过程的延伸期预报提供依据.结果表明:PDO(Pacific Decadal Oscillation,太平洋年代际振荡)冷位相年,华南前汛期发生典型持续性暴雨过程的概率比PDO暖位相年大,且暴雨强度偏强,持续时间偏长;太平洋海温场两种不同时间尺度背景下,华南典型持续性暴雨过程呈现不同的特征,PDO冷位相配合冬春Nino区海温异常,华南前汛期易出现强度较强、持续时间较长的典型持续性暴雨过程;太平洋海温两种不同时间尺度的外强迫信号可能影响华南前汛期降水的低频变化周期,进而影响华南前汛期持续性暴雨的持续时间和强度.

该文利用厦门市1954-2010年共57年逐日地面气象观测资料,分析厦门市灰霾天气特征,找出影响因子;通过与金门气象资料的对比,分析厦门市热岛与干岛效应的变化规律.结果表明:厦门市灰霾日数总体呈上升趋势.20世纪90年代以前灰霾日数变化不大,90年代以后呈波动性上升.厦门市灰霾日数与气温、湿度有密切联系.气温越高,湿度越低,造成热岛和干岛效应越强,灰霾日越多.厦门热岛效应有逐年升高的趋势,春季热岛效应最强,秋季热岛效应最弱;干岛效应强度从2005年起都为负值,且逐年加强,夏季最显著,冬季最弱.