The continuous advancement of urbanization and industrialization has greatly threatened the natural capital and its sustainable utilization in urban agglomeration. In order to clarify the characteristics of natural capital sustainability changes during the construction process of urban agglomerations, taking the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations as an example, two-dimensional and three-dimensional ecological footprint models were applied to analyze the change of ecological footprint, ecological pressure index(EPI) and ecological economic coordination index(EECI), the natural capital stock consumption and natural capital flow occupancy, as well as the influencing factors and its related mechanisms, by adding the water resources account to the adapted ecological footprint model to reflect the water resource potential and demand in this area. The results showed that during the study period, the per capita ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration were 4.46 hm~2/person and 1.59 hm~2/person, respectively; and the average per capita ecological deficit was 2.87 hm~2/person; however, the ecological footprint per unit GDP continued to decline, indicating that the utilization rate of resources continued to rise. From 2005 to 2019, the EPI value of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration increased from 2.48 to 3.25, and the EECI value fell from 1.30 to 1.25. Based on the revised threedimensional ecological footprint model, it was found that the use of natural capital stock in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration was increasing, and it had a significant inhibitory effect on the renewal of natural capital flows,and the consumption of natural capital stock was 2.26 times of capital flow in 2019, with the resource consumption occupied. The impact factors analysis showed that the industrial output value, total energy consumption,construction land area and urbanization rate played positive roles in promoting the ecological footprint and exerted greater pressure on the sustainability of natural capital. The relationships among the ecological pressure level,ecological environmental and economic development of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration were quantitatively analyzed to provide a scientific basis and decision support for improving the ecological security and sustainable development of urban agglomerations.
为评估"绿水青山就是金山银山"实践创新基地("两山"基地)的"绿水青山"价值及绿水青山向金山银山的转化("两山"转化)成效,以生态系统价值核算相关理论和方法为基础,构建了基于生态产品价值、生态调节价值和生态文化价值的"两山"基地生态系统生产总值(Gross Ecosystem Product, GEP)核算体系,并探索性地以生态产品价值和生态文化价值之和评估"两山"转化成效。以"两山"基地——浙江省宁海县为例,对2011—2018年宁海县GEP和"两山"转化价值进行核算。结果表明,2011—2018年期间宁海县GEP逐年提高,2018年GEP为1259.03亿元,较2011年增长了47.78%,是同年地区生产总值(GDP)的2.09倍,生态调节服务是宁海生态系统的最主要生态服务类型,其价值达670.59亿元,占GEP的53.26%。2018年,宁海县"两山"转化价值为588.44亿元,较2011年增长了1.39倍,其中旅游转化的贡献度最高。"森林宁海"建设、依托生态优势发展特色全域生态旅游、创新生态补偿机制开展流域生态环境整治等是宁海县GEP增长的主要驱动力。GEP核算体系可以作为"两山"基地建设成效评估和"两山"转化评估的参考依据。
Based on the status of pollution load and its prediction methods,the pollution load of level year of Dongzhen Reservoir basin was predicted.The results showed that the pollution mainly came from agricultural non-point source pollution,domestic sewage and domestic garbage,of which orchard non-point pollution was the major source.Based on the prediction results of pollution load Dongzhen Reservoir basin,a two-dimensional water quality mathematical model was constructed for the purpose of evaluating the change trend of water quality.The results showed that total nitrogen and total phosphorus can't meet Grade Ⅲ of Surface Water Quality Standard.Consequently,it was suggested to strengthen environmental protection of Dongzhen Reservoir,focusing on orchard non-point source pollution control,domestic sewage and garbage disposal.