Objective To assess meteorological drivers of the second seasonal peaks in the incidence of hand,foot,mouth disease(HFMD)among children and adolescents in Gansu province.Methods Totally 83 462 records of 0-18 years old HFMD cases registered during 2010-2018 were collected from Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the data of same period on ambient temperature,relative humidity,rainfall,and wind speed were extracted from the Big Earth Data Platform for Three Poles.Weekly time series were established for the HFMD incidence and meteorological data.Local maximum filter and locally weighted scatter plot smoothing method were used in the identification of bimodal seasonal peaks of HFMD incidence.Logistic regression model analyses were performed to estimate the association of meteorological factors with the occurrence of second seasonal peaks of HFMD incidence,in which,the years with bimodal seasonal incidence peak were considered as the cases and those in years with monomodal incidence peak as the controls and the mean ambient temperature,relative humidity,rainfall and wind speed for 8 weeks before the identified second seasonal peak were considered as the exposure factors.Results Of the 83 190 HFMD cases finally included in the study,50 663(60.9%)were male and 77 346(93.0%)were aged less than 6 years,and more cases were reported in municipality/prefecture of Lanzhou(22 553,27.1%),Tianshui(9 756,11.7%),and Dingxi(7 917,9.5%).Of the 117 observation years for the 13 municipalities/prefecture during the 9 years,111(94.9%)of observation years had seasonal peaks of HFMD incidence,of which 92(78.6%)were with bimodal peak and only 19(16.2%)were with monomodal peak.The results of logistic regression analysis revealed a strong association between relative humidity of previous one week and the occurrence of second seasonal peak of HFMD,with a 4.2%increase(95%confidence interval[95%CI]:1.5%-7.3%)in the risk of second seasonal peak occurrence for every 1%increase in weekly average relative humidity;the results also indicated a 193.0%([95%CI]:21.9%-730.1%)increase in the risk of second seasonal peak occurrence of HFMD incidence for every 1m/s increased average weekly wind during 1-7 weeks before the second peak.Conclusion Weekly average relative humidity and wind speed are key meteorological factors correlated with the occurrence of the second seasonal peak of HFMD incidence.
目的 了解2016-2020年甘肃省流行性感冒(流感)的时空分布特征,评估防控措施实施效果.方法 收集甘肃省87个县(区)每周流感数据进行空间扫描分析,采用空间自相关方法对流感的时间风险特征指数(频率指数、持续时间指数和强度指数)进行空间统计分析.结果 共报告病例46043例,年均发病率35.09/10万.2016-2020年甘肃省流感高发病率的可能聚集区域集中在定西市和天水市.流感的频率指数为0.58,持续时间指数为5.73,强度指数为10.49.全局自相关显示,流感的频率指数和强度指数呈正向空间自相关,局部自相关显示,频率指数和强度指数的热点区域主要集中在定西市.结论 甘肃省流感发病存在时空聚集性,定西市是流感的发病高风险区域,不同发病风险区防控措施效果不同.
Understanding etiological role and epidemiological profile is needed to improve clinical management and prevention of acute respiratory infections (ARIs). A 5‐year prospective study about active surveillance for outpatients and inpatients with ARIs was conducted in Gansu province, China, from January 2011 to November 2015. Respiratory specimens were collected from patients and tested for eight respiratory viruses using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT‐PCR). In this study, 2768 eligible patients with median age of 43 years were enrolled including pneumonia (1368, 49.2%), bronchitis (435, 15.7%), upper respiratory tract infection or URTI (250, 9.0%), and unclassified ARI (715, 25.8%). Overall, 29.2% (808/2768) were positive for any one of eight viruses, of whom 130 cases were identified with two or more viruses. Human rhinovirus (HRV) showed the highest detection rate (8.6%), followed by influenza virus (Flu, 7.3%), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV, 6.1%), human coronavirus (hCoV, 4.3%), human parainfluenza (PIV, 4.0%), adenovirus (ADV, 2.1%), human metapneumovirus (hMPV, 1.6%), and human bocavirus (hBoV, 0.7%). Compared with URTI, RSV was more likely identified in pneumonia (χ2 = 12.720, P < 0.001) and hCoV was more commonly associated with bronchitis than pneumonia (χ2 = 15.019, P < 0.001). In patients aged less than 5 years, RSV showed the highest detection rate and hCoV was the most frequent virus detected in adults and elderly. The clear epidemical seasons were observed in HRV, Flu, and hCoV infections. These findings could serve as a reference for local health authorities in drawing up further plans to prevent and control ARIs associated with viral etiologies.