For the territory of Northern Eurasia, a scheme for the statistical correction of surface air temperature forecasts has been developed for periods of 1-4 months on the basis of the SL-AV model using the MOS concept. For statistical correction of operational temperature forecasts, the regression parameters and EOF expansion coefficients obtained by cross-validation on historical forecasts were used. Due to the internal relationships of the model output data, the proposed scheme allows improving the skill of surface characteristic forecasts. A significant improvement in the skill of deterministic air temperature forecasts by using statistical correction is manifested in transition seasons. The scheme of statistical correction is constantly evolving. Further development of the statistical correction technology involves the use of neural networks and forecast indices of atmospheric circulation.

The authors explore the trends in the human health risks caused by air pollution and changing levels of weather and climate comfort on the territory of Russia in 2020–2050 under two climate change scenarios. Generally, the dynamics of risks is expected to be moderate. It will presumably be characterized by inter-scenario variability and dispersion by the country’s climate zones. In certain areas, primarily in Siberia, very noticeable trends have been revealed. The paper shows a need for additional attention when planning the measures of adaptation to climate change in southern and central regions of European Russia, most of Western Siberia, the Magadan oblast and Kamchatka.

The main advantages of ensemble prediction systems and probabilistic climate forecasts as compared to deterministic ones are considered. Quality assessment has been performed for retrospective probabilistic forecasts of air temperature and precipitation on subseasonal timescales (the forecasts that were obtained with a new version of the SLAV072L96 global semi-Lagrangian atmospheric model developed in the Hydrometcenter of Russia and the Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences). Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts indicate the presence of a useful signal in the context of the forecasts of two extreme gradations of air temperature and precipitation at weekly and monthly integration intervals. It is concluded that the use of probabilistic approaches makes it possible to expand the time interval of the “usefulness” of forecasts from a week to a month, as well as to obtain estimates of uncertainty of a forecast and its potential economic value. The results of the study are expected to be used in the operational practice of the Hydrometcenter of Russia/North Eurasia Climate Centre, as well as in the preparation of consensus forecasts during sessions of regional climate forums.

The physical background and main types of climate forecasts issued by the world meteorological centers are considered. It is emphasized that modern forecasting systems have an integrated nature and combine not only data assimilation systems and global numerical atmosphere-ocean-land models, but also support infrastructure for providing forecast products to users. The features of the forecast system of the Hydrometcenter of Russia/North Eurasia Climate Centre (NEACC) and other world meteorological centers are compared. It is noted that, unlike other centers, the forecast system of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia/NEACC is based on the integrated use of synoptic, statistical, and hydrodynamic methods. It has been revealed that new trends and directions in the development of the forecast system are associated with the emergence of a new version of the SL-AV global semi-Lagrangian finite-difference atmosphere model of the Hydrometcenter of Russia and the Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS) with an expanded (up to 61 members) forecast ensemble, as well as with using the INR RAS climate model (INM-CM5) and additional applications designed for interaction with various economic sectors. The findings may be useful in determining a vector of future research aimed at developing the Russian climate prediction system.

The authors explore the trends in the human health risks caused by air pollution and changing levels of weather and climate comfort on the territory of Russia in 2020-2050 under two climate change scenarios. Generally, the dynamics of risks is expected to be moderate. It will presumably be characterized by inter-scenario variability and dispersion by the country’s climate zones. In certain areas, primarily in Siberia, very noticeable trends have been revealed. The paper shows a need for additional attention when planning the measures of adaptation to climate change in southern and central regions of European Russia, most of Western Siberia, the Magadan oblast and Kamchatka.

The experimental seasonal forecasts of the INM-CM5 climate model were used as input data for the temperature-time phenological model of birch dusting. Within the framework of the joint model, a test technology was developed for seasonal forecasting of the timing of the beginning of birch dusting in the European territory of Russia. Verification of this technology on seasonal retrospective forecasts of the INM-CM5 model (1991–2019) showed an adequate reproduction of the birch dusting start dates calculated for the same period according to the ERA5 reanalysis. The mean systematic errors are ±2 days, and the spatial correlation coefficients are above +0.84. The forecasts of the date of dusting start in 2022, calculated from the experimental operational seasonal forecasts of the INM-CM5 model with a monthly lead-time and with a zero lead-time, are also evaluated. It is shown that the errors in forecasting the beginning of dusting are ±5–10 days, and the forecasts with a one-month lead-time have fewer errors. The obtained results allow us to conclude that the seasonal forecast of the surface temperature of the INM-CM5 model can be used as input information for the temperature-time phenological model for the operational forecast of the timing of the start of birch dusting in the European territory of Russia.

Experimental seasonal forecasts using the INM-CM5 climate model have been applied as the input data for the temperature–time phenological model of birch pollination. A test method has been developed within the framework of the joint model for the seasonal forecasting of the time of the beginning of birch pollen dispersion in the European territory of Russia. Verification of this method on seasonal retrospective forecasts of the INM-CM5 model (in 1991–2019) has shown an adequate reproduction of the days of the beginning of birch pollen season simulated for the same period based on ERA5 reanalysis. The mean systematic errors are ±2 days, and the spatial correlation coefficients exceed +0.84. The forecasts of the date of pollen dispersion beginning in 2022 simulated from the experimental operational seasonal forecasts using the INM-CM5 model with a monthly lead time and with a zero lead time are also evaluated. It is shown that the errors in forecasting the onset of pollen dispersion are ±5–10 days, with smaller errors of forecasts with a 1-month lead time. The results allow us to conclude that the seasonal forecast of the surface temperature based on the INM-CM5 model can be used as input information for the temperature–time phenological model for the operational forecast of the start time of birch pollen dispersion in the European territory of Russia.

The main features of the atmospheric circulation in the summer of 2022 based on the Northern Hemisphere climate system monitoring are discussed. Estimates of the temperature and precipitation regime in Northern Eurasia based on observational data are given. The regions in which the anomalies of geopotential height, surface air pressure, and sea surface temperature are most/least successfully simulated by WMO multi-model forecasts and SL-AV model forecasts are identified. Good skill scores of consensus air temperature and precipitation forecasts for the summer of 2022 issued during NEACOF-22 is noted. For the entire territory of Northern Eurasia, the accuracy of forecasts was 80% for surface air temperature and 64% for precipitation. Keywords: large-scale atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature, multi-model forecast, consensus forecast, air temperature, precipitation, skill scores

The authors explore the dynamics of human health risks caused by air pollution and weather and climate comfort in the Arctic zone of Russia in 2020-2050 under two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). According to estimates, in the period up to 2050, there is generally an insignificant dynamics of risks characterized by inter-scenario variability and dispersion across the territory of the Russian Arctic. Only in certain areas there are noticeable trends. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, a significant area of the Arctic shows a trend towards increased health risks from air pollution and improved weather and climate comfort in spring and summer. In winter and autumn, in some Arctic regions of the ETR (European territory of Russia) and Siberia, increased cold discomfort is possible. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, there is a tendency to reduce the risk from air pollution in most areas, and improve comfort in almost the entire territory of the Russian Arctic in spring, in most of the subarctic zone — in other seasons, in the temperate zone — in summer. A trend towards increased cold discomfort is noted in large areas of the Arctic zone in winter, summer and autumn, in certain areas of the European territory of Russia and Siberia in the temperate zone — in autumn and winter, in the subarctic zone — in autumn. The authors outline the need for additional attention when planning measures to adapt to climate change in the territories of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area and the Krasnoyarsk Territory. The findings are relevant for strategic planning of the development of Arctic territories, environmental and climatic risks management for the population living and working in the Arctic.

Estimates of future changes in the characteristics of the air temperature regime in Northern Eurasia over a five-year time interval are presented. The estimates are based on the forecasts of the Earth climate model developed at Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The skill of the forecasts for the territory of Northern Eurasia is discussed using standard skill scores for long-range forecasts. Regions where surface air temperature anomalies are likely to exceed the threshold targets of the Paris Agreement are identified. The consequences of a possible change in the growing season and dates of the stable air temperature above 5°C for agriculture are analyzed. The presented estimates of possible changes in the air temperature characteristics in Northern Eurasia over a five-year interval provide a more objective pattern of expected climate change and can be useful to determine optimal solutions for the development of agricultural sector in the changing climate and to minimize possible negative consequences.

The main results of the 22th session of the North Eurasian Climate Forum (NEACOF-22) in videoconference mode on May 26, 2022 are presented. Specialists from the research institutes and forecast organizations of Roshydromet, experts from meteorological services and research centers of the CIS countries, as well as scientists, teachers, graduate students and students of higher educational institutions with a specialization in meteorology and climatology, and other interested persons took part in NEACOF-22. In total, 112 participants from 9 countries were registered. Keywords: North Eurasian Climate Forum, North Eurasian Climate Center, climate model, atmospheric circulation, consensus forecast, seasonal air temperature and precipitation anomaly

The possibility of developing specialized seasonal forecasting within the framework of the North Eurasia Climate Centre is discussed. The purpose of these forecasts is to access the impacts of significant large-scale anomalies of meteorological elements on various economic sectors for the timely informing of government services and private businesses to select optimal strategies for planning preventive measures. A brief overview of the groups of climatic risks in the context of the impacts on the socio-economic sphere is given according to the Russian and foreign bibliographic sources. Examples of the activities of some Regional Climate Centers that produce forecast information with an assessment of possible impacts of weather and climate conditions at seasonal scales on various human activities are given. Keywords: climate services, regional climate forums, weather and climate risks, North Eurasia Climate Centre

In this paper we present first results on the use of Polar WRF model for regionalization of the atmospheric circulation in the Arctic region produced by the global climate model INM-CM48 developed in INM RAS. We demonstrate that Polar WRF does not show run off effects in the first year of integration, gives reasonable results with respect to the global model with more details in the regions of complex topography and coast line.

Changes in the general circulation of the atmosphere in a changing climate can lead to a noticeable redistribution of the amount of pollutants entering and areas affecting regions during long-range pollution. In this connection, a methodical approach has been formulated for assessing the trends of long-range atmospheric pollution for given environmentally significant zones, taking into account the predicted climate changes. Pollution indices, characterizing the amount of transported impurity in the latitudinal and meridional directions, are introduced, and calculations are made for January, April, July, October and the year for the period 1980—2050, which generally indicate well-defined trends in long-range atmospheric pollution. The study of the dynamics of the influence of changing weather and climatic conditions in specific areas on human activity in terms of comfort of living has been carried out.

This study examined the variations in weather and climate comfort in Russia. For retrospective analysis (1980-2015), reanalysis data were used, for the future (2020-2050) were made using calculations on the climatic model of the Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics RAS. The results using the data from the RCP8.5 ("hard" scenario) suggest that in areas with a strongly continental climate winters get more comfortable, but summers get less comfortable. At the same time, there is also a tendency to smooth out and almost complete absence of a seasonal course of comfort. In regions that are characterized by a temperate continental climate there is a tendency to increase comfort in winter, a decline in autumns and springs and almost no changes in the summer. In areas with oceanic type of climate, a decrease in comfort in winters is expected, as well as in autumns and springs.

Currently the Nuclear Safety Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (NSI RAS) jointly with the Hydrometcenter of Russia is developing the system for forecasting the transfer of radio-active substances in the atmosphere in case of radiation accidents at Russian nuclear power plants. The operation of the system is based on the numerical hydrodynamic model which allows forecasting meteorological parameters and is coupled with the mesoscale dispersion model of the transfer ofradioactive substances in the atmosphere. The results are presented of 85 Kr transport modeling under the conditions of the ACURATE experiment with three transport models: FLEXPART, HYSPLIT, and the model from the NOSTRADAMUS software package. It is demonstrated that all three Lagrangian models can give a qualitative description of concentration fields from the ACURATE experiment with the best value of the RANK metric (2.5) based on three statistics.

Studied are the effects that variations of meteorological parameters at different time scales in Naberezhnye Chelny city produce on people suffering from ischemic heart disease. The number of ambulance calls from 2010 to 2012, meteorological parameters, and some biometeorological indices are compared by the cross-correlation analysis. Demonstrated is the absence of statistically significant correlation between the daily series of ambulance calls due to ischemic heart disease during the period under study, on the one hand, and average daily series of major meteorological parameters and the most frequently used biometeorological indices, on the other hand. Revealed is the correlation between the number of ambulance calls and the intradaily variations of air pressure and air temperature at the time scale of 3 hours. Proposed is a parameter (biometeorological index of weather effects, IWE) taking into account the total effects of intradaily variations of air pressure and air temperature and characterized by statistically significant correlation with the number of ambulance calls made by people suffering from ischemic heart disease.

In the article there are considered the main problems of assessing public health risks of the combined effects of high temperatures and air pollution with the account taken of the consequences of abnormally hot weather observed in summer 2010 in Moscow and without equals in the history of meteorological measurements in the city. The daily average concentrations of fine suspended particles matter (PM10) in the city during peatland fires from 4 to 9 August are emphasized to be within the range of 431-906 μ/m3, being 7.2-15.1 times the Russian maximum permissible concentration (MPCs) (60 μ/m3). The anomalous heat and high levels of air pollution in this period were shown to cause a significant increase in excess mortality among the population of Moscow. There was established the relative gain in mortality from all natural causes per 10 μg/m3 increase in daily average concentrations of PM10 and ozone, which was respectively: 0.47% (95%; CI: 0.31-0.63) and 0.41% (95%; CI: 0.31-1.13). On the base of the statistical analysis of daily mortality rates, meteorological indices, the concentrations of PM10 and ozone there was developed marking scale for the risk assessment of these indices accordingly to 4 gradings--low (permissible), warning, alert, and a hazard level. There has been substantiated the importance of the introduction of the system for the early alert for hazard weather events and the unified rating scale for the hazard of high air temperatures and high levels of air pollution with PM10 and ozone, which allows to take timely measures for the protection of the public health.