Compared with lower level data fusion,the development effect of threat assessment's systematic solution is not obvious.Aiming at this actuality,we firstly clarified the difficulties of threat assessment,then constructed the framework of threat assessment system based on the thought of hypothesis generation,hypothesis evaluation and Abstraction,proposed the three elements for threat situation hypothesis and reasoning approach,and developed the model of intentional threat.To facilitate computer realization,we gave a formal representation to the related concept,reasoning and belief propagation using set theory and predicate calculus.This research supplies a new solution for threat assessmen,and lays the foundation for the further development of threat assessment theory and application.

In order to quantize attack intention aiming at submarine,firstly distill checkout value of attack intention from the information that the submarine can attain;next cluster all the objectives that the submarine can detect out using the identification of fleet based on objectives' information elements clustering;lastly measure the evidence of fleet's attack intention by coefficient using the inference on fleet's attack intention based on the variable weight multi-objective decision.The researching makes it possible to figure out fleet's attack intention,which is based by the subsequence work of threat evaluation.