Climate change has triggered a series of global-scale environmental problems, posing a great threat to the sustainable development of forests throughout the world. Bashania fargesii is the primary bamboo species consumed by giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) in the Qinling Mountains. As global warming continues to intensify, how the distribution of B. fargesii changes will determine the survival of giant pandas in the future. We therefore predicted and compared the potential distribution of B. fargesii in the Qinling Mountains of Shaanxi Province in the 2050 s and 2070 s by using integrated Species distribution models (SDMs) constructed based on 88 occurrence records of B. fargesii and 12 selected environmental variables. The results showed that precipitation seasonality was the key environmental variable affecting the distribution of B. fargesii, and the suitable areas for B. fargesii would be lost under future climate scenarios. More importantly, under RCP8.5, habitat loss would be extremely dramatic in the 2070 s for B. fargesii. Our study indicated that climate change might have significant impacts on the future distribution of the bamboo B. fargesii, resulting in giant pandas lacking sufficient suitable habitats in the winter season. Routine monitoring of bamboo forests is necessary to strengthen the preservation of giant pandas and biodiversity in the Qinling Mountains.

Japanese larch (Larix kaempferi), a non-native tree species, has been widely planted in the Qinling Mountains since the last century, but it does not meet the habitat needs of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), mainly because of food, further causing habitat degradation and fragmentation. However, how soil microorganisms, considered as predictors of the soil environment, respond to Japanese larch remains poorly explored, especially compared with native forests. Here, we collected 40 soil samples from plantation, bamboo, and natural (excluding bamboo) forests in the Changqing Nature Reserve and Foping Nature Reserve in Qinling to compare soil bacterial community composition and diversity using high-throughput sequencing of bacterial 16S rRNA genes. The soil chemical properties and bacterial communities differed noticeably under forest-type classification patterns. The soil of the Japanese larch planted forests underwent substantial degradation, with higher acidity, lower alpha diversity, and more significant enrichment in the oligotrophic bacteria Acidobacteria and Verrucomicrobia, in contrast to the other two primary forests with elevated soil nutrient levels. The application of PICRUSt2 indicated the down-regulation of amino acid-related metabolism in planted forests. Moreover, pH was the primary factor determining the whole bacterial community structures. To avoid the uncertainty of a single sampling region, we chose different sampling sites that could be considered as geographical factors, possibly due to environmental heterogeneity or dispersal limitations, which also explained the specific community patterns of microorganisms. Overall, this paper may help provide a scientific basis for future revegetation in giant panda habitats, highlighting the urgent need for ecological restoration and sustainable forestry management.

生境适宜性评价对野生动物的保护与管理具有重要意义.为了解陕西秦岭地区斑羚(Naemorhedus griseus)的生境状况,利用2011-2013年间在秦岭地区采集的斑羚分布点数据,通过MaxEnt模型对陕西秦岭地区的斑羚生境进行适宜性评价.结果表明,陕西秦岭地区的斑羚适宜生境面积约为9800 km2,占秦岭山地面积的17％,主要位于秦岭中西部区域;次适宜生境面积约为6940 km2,占秦岭面积的12％,主要位于适宜生境的周边区域.海拔、月均昼夜温差和年降雨量是影响陕西秦岭地区斑羚生境适宜性的主要环境变量,而人类干扰对生境适宜性的影响较小.陕西秦岭地区的斑羚偏好于选择1800-3000 m的中高海拔区间、年降水量为750-850 mm、月均昼夜温差8℃左右的环境.明确了斑羚适宜生境在秦岭的分布状况及关键环境影响因子,可为下一步制定濒危动物保护和生境管理提供理论依据.

Cypripedium japonicum is an endangered terrestrial orchid species with high ornamental and medicinal value. As global warming continues to intensify, the survival of C. japonicum will be further challenged. Understanding the impact of climate change on its potential distribution is of great significance to conserve this species. In this study, we established an ensemble species distribution model based on occurrence records of C. japonicum and 13 environmental variables to predict its potential distribution under current and future climatic conditions. The results show that the true skill statistic (TSS), Cohen’s kappa statistic (Kappa), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of the ensemble model were 0.968, 0.906, and 0.995, respectively, providing more robust predictions. The key environmental variables affecting the distribution of C. japonicum were the precipitation in the warmest quarter (Bio18) and the mean temperature in the driest quarter (Bio9). Under future climatic conditions, the total suitable habitat of C. japonicum will increase slightly and tend to migrate northwestward, but the highly suitable areas will be severely lost. By 2070, the loss of its highly suitable habitat area will reach 57.69–72.24% under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 respectively, and the highly suitable habitats in Zhejiang and Anhui will almost disappear. It is noteworthy that the highly suitable habitat of C. japonicum has never crossed the Qinba mountainous area during the migration process of the suitable habitat to the northwest. Meanwhile, as the best-preserved area of highly suitable habitat for C. japonicum in the future, the Qinba mountainous area is of great significance to protect the wild germplasm resources of C. japonicum. In addition, we found that most of the changes predicted for 2070 will already be seen in 2050; the problem of climate change may be more urgent than it is believed.