以云和地球辐射能量系统（CERES）数据集为准，量化了中国地球系统模式对地表入射短波辐射和大气逆辐射时空变化的模拟性能，明确了多模式间模拟结果存在不确定性的区域。结果表明：中国模式均能模拟出北半球地表入射短波辐射和大气逆辐射夏高冬低的季节变化特征。陆地上，中国模式对两个辐射分量月均值的模拟结果与CERES相当，在海洋上低于CERES结果。中国模式能模拟出地表入射短波辐射下降、大气逆辐射上升的年际变化趋势。对于2001—2014年均值，中国模式模拟的地表入射短波辐射在海洋和陆地上较CERES分别偏低3.3 W m-2和3.0 W m-2，模拟的大气逆辐射在海洋上与CERES结果相当，在陆地上较CERES低1.3 W m-2。除南北纬30o附近之外，中国模式在其他纬度均低估地表入射短波辐射，以热带和北极最明显。模式对大气逆辐射的模拟偏差呈纬向波动特征，模拟误差大值出现在高大山脉处。中国模式模拟地表入射短波辐射不确定性极大的区域分布在热带雨林和南极洲沿海，模拟大气逆辐射不确定性极大的区域分布在格林兰岛、青藏高原、安第斯山脉和南极洲沿海。

湖泊“皮肤效应”指表面温度与表层水温的差异,量化“皮肤效应”并分析其影响因素有助于理解湖泊物理、化学、生物和生态过程对气候变暖的响应。本文基于太湖中尺度通量网2011—2020年水温梯度、辐射四分量和小气候观测数据,定量分析了在不同时间尺度和不同天气条件下“皮肤效应”的差异及其影响因素。结果表明,太湖暖“皮肤效应”在15:00—16:00最强,可达1.95℃;冷“皮肤效应”在7:00—8:00最强,达-0.50℃。“皮肤效应”强度春季最强,夏季最弱。因此,无法用表层水温观测值直接验证卫星午后过境反演得到的太湖湖面温度,其偏差可达2℃,尤其在春季。年际尺度上,太湖表面温度上升速率为0.14℃/a,与同期气温上升速率相当,表层水温上升速率为0.12℃/a。使用遥感反演的表面温度表征的太湖升温速率会比传统的表层水温观测结果快0.02℃/a。晴天小风时暖“皮肤效应”最强,为1.64℃;阴天大风时“皮肤效应”最弱,仅为0.32℃。相较于太阳辐射,风速对太湖水温“皮肤效应”的影响更大,风的扰动是影响太湖水温“皮肤效应”的首要因素。此外,基于10年观测数据建立了适用于太湖水温“皮肤效应”的风速参数化方案。

量化湖泊与邻近陆地的表面温度差异,拆分生物物理因子对其贡献是明确湖泊气候效应的基础.本文基于耦合CLM4.5的CESM模式模拟的1991-2010年全球气候数据,分析了全球湖泊表面温度效应(湖泊与邻近陆地的表面温度差异)的时空格局,利用IBPM因子拆分理论量化了生物物理因子对其贡献.结果表明:①湖泊表面温度效应的季节变化明显,但年际变化不显著,北半球湖泊最强增温(4.37 K)和降温效应(-0.99 K)分别出现在9月和4月.②除干旱区湖泊呈降温效应外,其他气候区的湖泊以增温效应为主,热带湖泊增温效应最强.③湖泊表面温度效应的生物物理主控因子随气候区改变,湖陆之间的蒸发差异是干旱区湖泊呈降温效应的主控因子,较低的对流散热效率是热带和温带湖泊呈增温效应的主控因子,反照率差异和冰雪融化潜热分别对寒带、极地湖泊表面温度效应的正贡献和负贡献最大.全球尺度上,湖陆之间的对流效率差异(3.77±0.13 K)和蒸发差异(-2.01±0.1 K)对湖泊表面温度效应的正、负贡献最大.

As an important source of greenhouse gases, the changes in greenhouse gas concentrations of aquaculture ponds are not only the basis for accurate quantification of greenhouse gases emissions but are also important for identifying their influencing factors. The spatial and temporal variation characteristics of CH4, CO2, and N2O concentrations and the influencing factors in a typical small aquaculture pond in the Yangtze River Delta were analyzed based on the headspace equilibrium-gas chromatograph method. Except in spring, the concentrations of CH4, and N2O appeared high at noon or afternoon and were influenced by water temperature. Impacted by water temperature and aquatic plant photosynthesis, the concentrations of CO2 were high in the morning when photosynthesis was weak. The concentrations of CH4 and CO2 were the highest in autumn and the lowest in winter. The mean concentrations of CH4 in autumn and winter were 176.34 nmol·L-1 and 32.75 nmol·L-1, respectively, which were mainly affected by air temperature, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen. The average CO2 concentrations in autumn and winter were 134.37 μmol·L-1 and 23.10 μmol·L-1, respectively, and were mainly affected by aquatic vegetation photosynthesis and pH. N2O concentration was the highest in summer and the lowest in winter, with mean values of 97.05 nmol·L-1 and 19.41 nmol·L-1, respectively, which were mainly affected by air temperature and water temperature. In terms of the vertical spatial variations of the three greenhouse gases, the concentration of CH4decreased with water depth in summer, and the concentration differences between the surface layer and the bottom and middle layers were 71.28 nmol·L-1 and 42.80 nmol·L-1, respectively. The concentration of CH4 increased with water depth in autumn, and the concentration difference between the bottom layer and surface layer was 163.94 nmol·L-1. The CO2 concentration increased with water depth in summer and autumn. The concentration differences between the bottom and surface concentrations were 18.69 μmol·L-1 and 29.90 μmol·L-1, respectively. N2O concentration showed no obvious change in the vertical direction. For the horizontal variations, the concentrations of CH4, CO2, and N2O in the feeding area in summer and in chicken manure in spring were approximately 1.34-1.98 times and 1.95-2.42 times those in other areas, respectively, and the concentrations of N2O and CO2 in spring and summer were approximately 1.13-1.26 times and 1.39-1.74 times those in other areas.

基于云和地球辐射能量系统观测数据集(CERES),对比分析了耦合模式比较计划第五(CMIP5)和第六阶段(CMIP6)模拟的历史大气层顶和地表辐射收支的年际变化和空间分布,明确了多模式间不确定性大的关键区域.结果表明:在年际尺度上,除地表向上长波辐射外,CMIP6的辐射分量的集合均值较CMIP5更接近于CERES观测值,全球地表向下短波辐射的高估和大气逆辐射的低估在CMIP6中分别降低了1.9 W/m2和3.3 W/m2.除大气逆辐射外,CMIP6的辐射分量在多模式间的一致性较CMIP5提高.在北极,CMIP6对大气层顶反射短波、大气层顶出射长波和地表向下短波辐射的模拟偏差较CMIP5大.在南北纬60°,CMIP6对大气逆辐射的模拟偏差较CMIP5大.其他区域CMIP6的辐射分量更接近CERES观测值.CMIP6模拟的地表向下短波辐射和大气逆辐射的不确定性较大区域面积较CMIP5减小,但不确定性极大区域面积无变化.地表净辐射的不确定性空间分布在两代CMIP间变化甚小.青藏高原、赤道太平洋、热带雨林、阿拉伯半岛和南极洲沿海依然是地球系统模式模拟辐射收支不确定性极大的关键区域.

Global climate change and local urban heat islands enhance urban heat stress. Studies focused at the urban neighborhood scale are limited. Wet-bulb temperature represents the combined effects of both temperature and humidity, and therefore can more accurately reflect human thermal comfort. In this study, air temperature, relative humidity and geographic information of different times, seasons, and sky conditions of the Nanjing Jiangbei New Area were obtained based on mobile measurements. The spatiotemporal variation of wet-bulb temperature at the urban neighborhood scale and the effects of sky conditions, land cover and urban morphology (sky view factor, SVF) were further analyzed. The results showed that: 1) the spatiotemporal variations of wet-bulb temperature at the Nanjing urban neighborhood scale were consistent with that of air temperature. Compared with vapor pressure, air temperature played a dominant role. The extremely high values of wet-bulb temperature in this area were mostly caused by the synergy between air temperature and vapor pressure. 2) The correlation between SVF and wet-bulb temperature was significantly positive in the daytime and negative at night. An increase in the vegetation fraction could reduce wet-bulb temperature, while impervious surfaces had the opposite effect. The wet-bulb temperature significantly decreased and its spatial distribution was much more homogeneous under overcast sky conditions. 3) The horizontal scale effect showed diurnal and seasonal differences and was more sensitive to sky conditions during nighttime than during daytime. Compared with vegetation, the horizontal effect of impervious surfaces was much larger in winter than in the other two seasons. The horizontal scale effects of vege-tation and impervious surfaces on wet-bulb temperature were similar to those of air temperature. These results could provide effective scientific support and a theoretical basis for improving and optimizing the thermal environment of urban neighborhoods, as well as alleviating urban heat stress.

水温是评估湖泊生态系统状态、功能和过程的重要参数,在多时间尺度上影响着湖泊的物理、化学、生物和生态过程.基于太湖中尺度通量网避风港站点2012—2016年的水温梯度、小气候和辐射四分量的观测数据,分析了太湖水温在不同时间尺度上的变化特征,选取夏季高温和冬季冷空气过境个例分析太湖水温对天气条件变化的响应,并量化了太湖水温与气象因子在多时间尺度上的相关性.结果表明:太湖水温呈单峰型日变化,水温达到峰值的时间随深度增加而推迟.太湖热分层发生在日尺度上,以午后16:00最强,春夏两季热分层更明显.太湖水温呈现夏高、冬低的季节变化特征,夏季水温层结明显(～4℃).2012—2016年太湖水温呈上升趋势,以150 cm水温变暖最显著(1.15℃),20 cm水温变暖最微弱(0.82℃).副热带高压控制下的晴朗、高温天气有利于太湖水体热分层,而冷空气过境带来的降温和大风天气会破坏水体热分层.在各个时间尺度上,太湖水温与气温和向上长波辐射的正相关关系最显著,相关系数大于0.91.可见,太湖水温的时间变化特征不仅是对大气强迫的响应,还通过向上长波辐射进行反馈.

采用统计学方法,利用甘肃天水1981-2011年桃单产量和相关气象资料统计分析了气候变化对桃产量形成影响,为果树生产和管理部门有效应对气候变化提供决策依据.研究表明:20世纪90年代以来天水桃树栽培区气温升高,降水减少,暖干气候特征明显,极端最高气温的显著升高是气候变暖的主要表现.气候变暖导致桃树发育进程明显加快,初春气温、仲春最高气温的快速升高和降水量的明显减少,造成桃树花芽发育-盛花期高温干旱对花蕾发育、开花坐果的危害及盛夏7月降水量的增加和7月下旬至8月上旬气温日较差的减小,对果实干物质累积、着色成熟的影响均呈明显加重趋势,7月相对较多的降水还可造成果树大量落果而减产,但仲秋10月降水量的增加不仅有利果树正常越冬,还可缓解来年春季暖干气候对果树产量形成的不利影响.