Currently, the most popular approach for assessing the tsunami hazard on a coast is the PTHA (Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment). In this preliminary study, we develop one of the variants of the SPTHA (Seismic PTHA) method, adapted to solving local tsunami zonation problems for near-field sources. The approach is applied to assessing the tsunami hazard of the Bechevinskaya Cove located on the eastern coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula in the northern part of Avachinsky Bay. We propose the method, algorithms and results of probabilistic assessment of the cove's tsunami hazard in order to determine the safest water areas, in which the values of the intensity measures (IMs) of tsunami will not exceed the specified threshold values with the given Average Return Periods (ARPs). The method includes analysis of seismotectonics of the region, construction of a catalog of model tsunamigenic earthquakes, determination of their statistical characteristics, scenario numerical modeling of the dynamics of tsunami waves, calculations of the values of IMs that can be exceeded with the given annual rates (ARs), namely, on average 1 time in 100, 500, 1000 years. Spatial distributions of the maximum wave heights and maximum velocities are provided for the ARs. Three configurations of the water area are considered, including the possibility of constructing protective structures, and conclusions are drawn about their influence on the tsunami hazard assessments in the cove.
Созданы обзорные карты цунамиопасности Дальневосточного побережья России. Обсуждаются методологические основы подхода, основанного на методике РТНА (Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment), а также проблемы построения сейсмотектонических моделей основных цунамигенных зон, численные методики получения расчётных каталогов высот волн на побережье и некоторые проблемы применения методики РТНА, связанные как с недостаточностью данных наблюдений, так и со сложностью выполнения большого объёма сценарного численного моделирования. Приведены примеры обзорных карт цунамиопасности для различных повторяемостей, представленные в приложении WTMap.
В работе идет речь о реализации методики вероятностного цунамирайонирования побережья, известной под названием PTHA (Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment), для создания обзорных карт цунамиопасности дальневосточного побережья России. Обсуждаются методологические основы такого подхода, проблемы построения сейсмотектонических моделей основных цунамигенных зон, численные методики получения расчетных каталогов высот волн на побережье. Приведены примеры обзорных карт для различных повторяемостей, построенных с применением методики PTHA и представленных с помощью созданного веб-приложения WTMap. Упоминаются также некоторые проблемы применения методики PTHA, связанные как с недостаточностью данных наблюдений, так и со сложностью выполнения большого объема сценарного численного моделирования.The article describes the results of the implementation of the PTHA (Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment) methodology for creating the overview maps of tsunami hazard for the Far East coast of the Russian Federation. Such maps show the characteristics of the catastrophic impact of tsunami waves on the coast and the probability of their exceeding in a given period of time. The methodological basis of the PTHA approach to the assessment of tsunami hazard, the problems of constructing seismotectonic models of the main tsunamigenic zones, mathematical models and algorithms for calculating probability estimates of tsunami danger are discussed. The version of the PTHA methodology outlined in the article is implemented as a “WTmap” Web-application that has an access to the entire observational information related to coastal tsunami zoning and software packages used. The application allows to obtain the estimates of the expected tsunami heights and their recurrence estimates and to map them on specific parts of the Far Eastern coast of the Russian Federation. The obtained estimates can be quickly recalculated when replacing the observational catalogs with more complete and reliable ones, with the addition of new, previously absent events or the revision of their parameters, as well as the results of new scenario calculations. Examples of overview maps for various recurrence intervals, constructed using the PTHA methodology and presented using the “WTMap” application, are given. Some problems of using the PTHA methodology related to the lack of available observational data and to the complexity of performing a large amount of scenario simulations are also discussed.
Overview maps of tsunami hazards for the Far Eastern coast of the Russian Federation are created. The methodological principles of the PTHA (Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment) approach are discussed, as are the problems of constructing seismotectonic models of the main tsunamigenic zones, mathematical models and algorithms for calculating probability estimates of tsunami hazards, and some problems of applying the PTHA methods related both to the lack of observation data and the complexity in performing a large volume of numerical scenario simulations. Examples of overview maps of tsunami hazards for various recurrence intervals, constructed using the PTHA methodology and presented using the “WTMap” application, are given.
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