We present a study of glacier and debris flow disasters in the Mt. Kazbek region (central Caucasus). Glacier disasters were registered here in 18 -21 century (Devdorak, Abano and Kolka glaciers) and catastrophic debris flows occurred also in 1953 and 1967. We argue that glacier disasters on different sides of and nearby the Kazbek volcano should be considered as phenomena potentially of the same origin. For the next 30 years the region is likely to experience frequent rain-induced debris flows and less frequent glacial debris flows, which will be most active in the Genaldon River valley due to abundant material deposited by the 2002 glacier disaster. The naming of the multi-stage catastrophic events like the Kolka glacier disaster in 2002 and the determination of the exact role of debris flows in such events require further work.

We present a study of glacier and debris flow disasters in the Mt. Kazbek region (central Caucasus). Glacier disasters were registered here in 18(th)-21(st) century (Devdorak, Abano and Kolka glaciers) and catastrophic debris flows occurred also in 1953 and 1967. We argue that glacier disasters oil different sides of and nearby the Kazbek volcano should be considered as phenomena potentially of the same origin. For the next 30 years the region is likely to experience frequent rain-induced debris flows and less frequent glacial debris flows, which will be most active in the Genaldon River valley due to abundant material deposited by the 2002 glacier disaster. The naming of the multi-stage catastrophic events like the Kolka glacier disaster in 2002 and the determination of the exact role of debris flows in Such events require further work.

An analysis of the reconstructed large picture of debris flow events during the last one and a half millennia showed that, with different stages of global glacial dynamics, different mechanisms of debris flow formation prevailed in the periglacial zone. A majority of catastrophic debris flows in the Central Caucasus occurred during the stages of glacial retreat because Of Outbursts of numerous temporary glacial lakes near the edges of retreating valley glaciers; and from the thermal erosion of small glaciers. With the present glacial retreat in the Central Caucasus, the potential exists for increasing debris flow activity related to thermal erosion destruction of small glaciers in the near future.

This paper discusses the occurrence of mudflows in the Baksan River basin during the last thousand years. Lichenometric studies indicate several periods of more intense mudflow activity which correlate with patterns of climatic and glacier fluctuations. The data are presented in graphic form. The cessation of mudflow activity in the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries coincides with a prolonged cold period. Climatic warming and deglaciation are most conducive to mudflow occurrence.There has been a significant increase in mudflow activity during the present century, which may be due to anthropogenic activities such as mining, tourism, and the intensification of agriculture and, as a result, soil erosion and overgrazing. It is predicted that mudflow activity will continue at its present rate into the next century.