Using the developed geoinformation system “Prediction”, an analysis was made of information available from the media on two devastating earthquakes in the Türkiye that occurred in the western segment of the East Anatolian fault on February 6, 2023. The possibilities of recognizing signs of the preparation of earthquake data by means of medium-term forecasting developed for the Baikal rift zone, which are important for assessing seismic hazard and seismic risk, are discussed. Based on the analysis of the consequences of the large-scale destruction of residential and industrial infrastructure in the Türkiye, the causes of the huge damage to the country's economy caused by earthquakes, which are largely due to unfavorable seismotectonic conditions and urbanization problems that arose as a result of insufficient compliance with the necessary requirements and norms of earthquake-resistant construction, are considered.

A series of full-scale experiments was performed to study the influence of impact loads on the parameters of seismic vibrations initiated in variable friction. The study was conducted on a test setup Tribo which is a movable concrete slab modeling an allochthon on a rough plane of the Angara fault segment in Baikal region. Contact interactions of asperities in the slip zone were recorded using strain and load measuring equipment and four seismic stations Baykal-7HR widely used for recording earthquakes. The proposed physical modeling method and obtained results can be of interest for the development of new physical models of differently scaled sources of seismic energy dissipation in tectonic faults and can be useful for seismological studies, related data interpretation, and improvement of extended forecast of rock bursts and earthquakes.

Field experiments were carried out using TRIBO, a specially designed testing stand including a concrete plate that can be moved at different rates. In our experiment, the plate served as an artificial allochtonous wing placed at the uneven surface of the segment of the Angarsky fault in Pribaikalie. Tribological effects of contact interaction of the uneven surfaces in the zone of sliding movements of the plate were recorded by strain gauges, linear displacement gauges and four Baikal-7HR seismic stations; such stations are commonly used for earthquake recording. The effect of shocks in initiation of seismic oscillation sources was studied with changes of the regimes of destruction of the uneven surfaces (underneath the base of the plate) which differ in size and strength. The study was focused on stages in the process of friction at preparation to transition from quasi-regular decelerated sliding movement of the plate to its breakaway and occurrence of a high-energy seismic impulse.The applied method of large-scale modelling at natural objects in field provides new data that may prove useful for stu­dies of mechanisms causing seismicity, identification of stages in occurrence of earthquakes in fault zones and interpretation of seismic monitoring data. Results of such physical tests can contribute to the development of methods aimed at forecasting of rock shocks and earthquakes and also for the development of new physical models showing formation of earthquake foci of various scales in tectonic faults.

The main challenge in the prediction of tectonic earthquakes and their control is still insufficient awareness of seismotectonic processes in the lithosphere and upper mantle during the preparation of strong earthquakes. This is associated in many respects with not quite appropriate equipment for researchers. Among relevant problems is also a lack of adequate models of preparation of earthquake sources at different stages, and this retards the development of earthquake prediction methods. The paper discusses long-term research on deformation and destruction of the Baikal ice cover in the context of physical mesomechanics. With certain combinations of meteorological factors (wind, temperature, precipitation, undercurrents, etc.) responsible for deformation, major cracks of many kilometers arise in the Baikal ice cover. Their spontaneous growth often involves seismic phenomena as ice quakes whose energy reaches E max = 104–107 J. The nucleation of major cracks is similar to that of rock bursts of moderate strength or weak earthquakes. It is found that ice quakes and earthquakes are both preceded by foreshocks, seismic calm for tens of minutes, aftershocks and other events against the background of accelerated creep in fractures and increased seismoacoustic activity. Research data make it possible to put forward two genetically interrelated criteria among basic factors for ice quake prediction: variations in deformation modes at convergent boundaries of ice sheets and a specific intensification mode-generation of strong foreshocks in a segment in which ice sheets are prepared for dynamic motion. We substantiate the conclusion that simpler and clearer scenarios of preparation of strong seismic events in the Baikal ice cover allow successful physical simulation of preparation of tectonic earthquakes and rock bursts and advances in their prediction. We also consider and substantiate the feasibility of techniques for more efficient seismic risk reduction.