Based on the conception of the cyclic (wave) nature of the changes in the circulation of the atmosphere of the Atlantic-European sector (index of the North Atlantic oscillations) and surface temperature of the Black Sea on scales smaller or equal to the century scale, anomalies of the winter surface temperature are analyzed. It is shown that in the phase of the maximum of the presumably 60-year cycle of changes in the NAO index a negative anomaly of surface temperature forms and in the phase of minimum of this scale of changes of NAO, there is a positive anomaly. Estimates of the possible thermal state of the surface of the Black Sea during the phase of the expected minimum in 2011–2020 of the 60-year cycle (60-year wave) of the NAO index are made. The possibility of a phase shift between changes in solar activity, the NAO index, and anomalies of temperature of the Black Sea on the scales of cyclic (wave) processes larger than 100 years is considered.
To describe the spatial structure of hydrometeorological fields in the North Atlantic and in the Black Sea, the temperature indices (sea surface temperature gradients) representing the difference in sea surface temperature anomalies averaged throughout the water area and normalized by standard deviations are introduced. Temperature gradients between the Sargasso Sea and the tropics (STI), the Sargasso Sea and the subpolar cyclonic gyre (SNI), the Sargasso Sea and the Black Sea (SBI) are considered. The spatial structure of the sea surface temperature field anomalies in the North Atlantic and in the Black Sea at extreme values of STI and SBI is discussed. A sign-variable structure of air temperature and precipitation anomalies in the Black Sea area at extreme values of SBI is shown. Time scales of sign-variable variability of anomalies of hydrometeorological fields in the Black Sea area are estimated.
We analyze the annual average values and the anomalies of some hydrometeorological characteristics averaged over the period since January till March near the South Coast of Crimea and in the open part of the Black Sea. It is shown that the sea-surface temperature, the surface temperature of air, and the atmospheric precipitation in the Black-Sea region are lower than the climatic mean values for the extremely high values of the index of North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO index) (NAO ≥ 1) and the surface temperature gradient between the Sargasso and Black Seas (SBS index) (SBS ≥ 1). In the years with NAO ≤ − 1 and SBS ≤ − 1, the indicated characteristics exceed the climatic mean values. The entire process of changes in the sign of anomalies of the hydrometeorological characteristics runs with a period close to 20 yr.
A sign-variable structure of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the high, subtropical, and tropical latitudes of the North Atlantic under the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO) values NAO ≥ 1 and NAO ≤ −1 is considered. A difference in cyclonic activity in winter under extreme values of the NAO is noted. The relation between the NAO anomalies in the areas with maximum cyclonic activity in the North Atlantic and some hydrometeorological quantities in the Crimea is analyzed. Preliminary estimates of the occurrence of a quasi-twenty-year cycle in the variability of processes determined by extreme values of the NAO are presented.