There is increasing concern in many advanced economies about the risks of disruption and crises in agri-food systems. Government departments and non-governmental organisations are working to identify and understand specific risks but struggle to take broad, holistic perspectives and therefore underestimate the potential for civil unrest. In the interests of helping move from understanding to action, we convened a group of experts through a Delphi process to map out potential pathways to acute UK food system crises and identify interventions that would build resilience and sustainability. To this end, we consulted 31 experts, carrying out 15 expert interviews, followed by three surveys and two workshops with a further 16 experts. The experts highlighted the many existing chronic issues creating a tinderbox for an acute risk to lead to a food crisis in the UK. These chronic issues include climate change, poor policy implementation, rising inequality, food supply chain consolidation and the risks from just-in-time supply of food. They voted to include three acute triggers-(a) cyber-attack, (b) a major extreme weather event and (c) a major new international conflict-and described how any combination of these could lead to (d) a UK food availability and/or price shock that could result in widespread fear of unsafe or inadequate food, leading to violence. A total of 7 system-wide interventions were prioritised to help address these pathway elements together and build sustainability, and a further 21 were identified to address elements individually.

To meet the goals of the Paris Agreement of avoiding dangerous climate change, decarbonisation of the global economy needs to proceed around three to five times faster over the coming decade than over the past two decades. This poses a great challenge for policy. Carbon pricing has often been put forward as the most efficient, or cost-effective, policy for achieving decarbonisation. This paper uses a stylised agent-based model to investigate whether implementing non-equilibrium dynamics and endogenous innovation results in more effective emission reductions for carbon tax compared with emission trading schemes. We find that the implementation of a carbon price is not policy-agnostic and that a carbon tax achieves faster emissions reduction, lower cumulative emissions, and lower cumulative (potentially wasted) investment in fossil fuel assets than a cap-and-trade policy with the same average carbon price. While a comparison between carbon pricing and alternative policies is outside the scope of this paper, we consider the broader policy implications that may be drawn from a new theoretical explanation for the difference in performance of the alternative carbon pricing approaches, and suggest that the traditional view that policy should aim to minimise the marginal emissions abatement cost is mistaken.

Tackling the growing biodiversity crisis requires a clear understanding of why, or why not, companies act on their interactions with biodiversity. By using thematic analysis across an expert practitioner workshop, documentary analysis and interviews with leading companies, this paper identifies and then systematically classifies different barriers and drivers. We find that the key forces are external to a company and go beyond simply a lack of data or tools to include more fundamental barriers such as the prevailing economic and political structures. The key barriers and drivers affecting the way companies interact with biodiversity include undervaluing biodiversity, data challenges, and education. There is a clear need for legislative change to drive forward business action, and this can only happen with bold political leadership backed by business leadership. Where greater action has happened, the research suggests this has been driven by economic, legal and political catalysts.

Models are not neutral. Yet, there has been insufficient attention given to the possible divergence in interpretations between those producing energy models and those using the related modelling evidence. This paper investigates how various actors involved in an energy policymaking-modelling system imagine key components of model design and development. We focus on four model components that energy-economic modellers have identified as essential for advancing the relevance and value of energy-economic models in the context of netzero transitions: (1) uncertainties; (2) technological innovation and radical transformation; (3) diversity of actor responses; and (4) long-time horizons. We adopted a case study approach that focused on the EU energy policymaking-modelling system. We conducted 16 interviews; 6 with European Commission policy officers, and 10 with those developing Commission-funded energy-economic models. We found that the four model components exhibited little Interpretative Flexibility; specifically, only one component (long-time horizons) was interpreted differently between EU policymakers and energy-economic modellers. Indeed, the policymakers' understanding of model development meant that they did little interpretative work on energy models altogether. We call for modeller-policymaker dialogue to prioritise what sits behind interpretations (e.g. theories, ideologies) and to more constructively discuss model boundaries and scope (e.g. via systems thinking, use of intermediaries).

This study examines the development of hydrogen energy technologies across continents, focusing on the concentration of expertise in hydrogen production within specific cross-border alliances and individual countries. The evolution of green hydrogen is assessed through an analysis of 297 hydrogen projects in Europe and Australia. The implementation of projects is constrained by high production costs, limiting the price competitiveness of the final product. The analysis reveals that electrolysis is the predominant technology employed in hydrogen production, with mobility being the primary area of application. The study includes a forecast indicating a significant decrease in auction prices for green hydrogen products due to economies of scale. Learning curve modeling confirms an expected reduction in auction prices by a factor of 2.5-3.7 over the next decade. However, delays in project implementation and the relocation of 49 projects across Australia. The results obtained indicate the existence of barriers implementation of hydrogen technologies. Although green hydrogen demonstrates strong potential for growth and scalability, realizing all announced projects will require enhanced policy support.

The destruction of natural capital is creating significant risks to the economy and society as a whole. Companies are fundamental to dealing with these risks as they impact and depend on nature, suggesting that it should be a material issue for them. This paper uses content analysis to assess how the world's largest companies disclose these impacts and dependencies on nature. It assesses whether companies consider these issues material to their operations and the degree to which they take actions to address them. It finds that few companies are taking comprehensive action to assess or address their impacts and dependencies, suggesting most do not consider it a material issue, treating it more as a form of impression management. The paper builds a theoretical nature positive journey and concludes that most companies have not yet reached the starting point.

AgriFoodPy is an open-source Python package for processing, simulation, and modeling of agrifood datasets and systems.By employing xarray (Hoyer & Hamman, 2017) as the primary data structure, AgriFoodPy provides methods to manipulate tabular data by extending xarray functionality via accessor classes.It acts as an accessibility and interoperability layer between data sources and external packages, and also bundles with a library of models for use without any additional requirements.

Induced innovation is a multi-faceted process characterized by interaction between demand-pull forces, path-dependent self-reinforcing change, and the cost reduction of technology that occurs with cumulative deployment. By endogenously including induced innovation in energy models, policy analysts and modellers could enable a mission-oriented approach to policymaking that envisions the opportunities of accelerating the low-carbon energy transition while avoiding the risks of inaction. While the integrated assessment models used in the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC-IAMs) account for induced innovation, their assumptions of general equilibrium and optimality may reveal weaknesses that produce unsatisfactory results for policymakers. In this paper, we develop a menu of options for modelling induced innovation in the energy transition with non-equilibrium, non-optimal models by a three step methodology: a modelling survey questionnaire, a review of the literature, and an analysis of case studies from modelling applications within the economics of energy innovation and system transition (EEIST) programme. The survey questionnaire allows us to compare 24 models from EEIST partner institutions developed to inform energy and decarbonisation policy decisions. We find that only six models, future technological transformations, green investment barriers mode, stochastic e xperience c urves, economy-energy-environment macro-econometric, M3E3 and Dystopian Schumpeter meeting Keynes, represent endogenous innovation—in the form of learning curves, R&D, and spillover effects. The review of the literature and analysis of case studies allow us to form a typology of different models of induced innovation alongside the IPCC-IAMs and develop a decision tree to guide policy analysts and modellers in the choice of the most appropriate models to answer specific policy questions. The paper provides evidence for integrating narrow and systemic approaches to modelling-induced innovation in the context of low-carbon energy transition, and promotes cooperation instead of competition between different but complementary approaches. These findings are consistent with the implementation of risk-opportunity analysis as a policy appraisal method to evaluate low-carbon transition pathways.

Regional carbon budgeting in policymaking is underutilized despite its importance for achieving global climate goals, particularly the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting global warming to 2 °C by 2050. In this work, we present the model PLEDGES, a novel system dynamic-based simulation tool that focuses on the European Union region to equitably distribute carbon budgets among the Member States and activate emissions offset strategies to manage unexpected deviations from the EU27 carbon budget. The emissions trading dynamic is based on the “Gains from Trade” approach. The tool also calculates the cost of the offset strategies based on the use of the abatement cost curves for the Member States. Using a case study of the recent increase in carbon emissions in Germany in response to reduced Russian gas supplies, different emissions scenarios for Germany’s quota redistribution among the Member States are explored. The study reveals varied cost implications of between 30–60 Eur/ton CO2eq to offset the emissions increase across other Member States. Final recommendations include promoting cross-border collaboration at the EU27 level.

We report the results of a survey of farmers and landowners to identify the most likely potential food system disruption scenarios for the UK and compare these with a previous expert elicitation with a much wider set of food system stakeholders. We found that 60% of farmers think a Societal Event in which 1 in 2000 people are injured in the UK is at least 20% likely to occur over the coming decade. Over a timeframe of 50 years, this increased to almost 90% of farmers. These results show that farmers and landowners are considerably more concerned about the vulnerability of the food system in the UK than the wider group of food system experts are. Farmers agreed with experts on the majority of potential causes of such vulnerability, which are climate change, trade policies (import and export), competition for land and ecological collapse (over 50 years). However, they also highlighted the importance of the power structure within the food system, with large corporations supplying to, or buying from, farmers creating lower revenue, making farming an unsustainable business. We conclude that an urgent systematic review of potential interventions that would improve resilience be conducted by the UK Government, in partnership with farmers.

it is a pioneering approach to the world of academia, radically improving the way scholarly research is managed.The grand vision of Frontiers is a world where all people have an equal opportunity to seek, share and generate knowledge.Frontiers provides immediate and permanent online open access to all its publications, but this alone is not enough to realize our grand goals. Frontiers journal seriesThe Frontiers journal series is a multi-tier and interdisciplinary set of openaccess, online journals, promising a paradigm shift from the current review, selection and dissemination processes in academic publishing.All Frontiers journals are driven by researchers for researchers; therefore, they constitute a service to the scholarly community.At the same time, the Frontiers journal series operates on a revolutionary invention, the tiered publishing system, initially addressing specific communities of scholars, and gradually climbing up to broader public understanding, thus serving the interests of the lay society, too. Dedication to qualityEach Frontiers article is a landmark of the highest quality, thanks to genuinely collaborative interactions between authors and review editors, who include some of the world's best academicians.Research must be certified by peers before entering a stream of knowledge that may eventually reach the public -and shape society; therefore, Frontiers only applies the most rigorous and unbiased reviews.Frontiers revolutionizes research publishing by freely delivering the most outstanding research, evaluated with no bias from both the academic and social point of view.By applying the most advanced information technologies, Frontiers is catapulting scholarly publishing into a new generation.

In the present study an effort-sharing approach based on Inertia and Capability principles is proposed to assess European Union (EU27) carbon budget distribution among the Member States. This is done within the context of achieving the Green Deal objective and EU27 carbon neutrality by 2050. An in-depth analysis is carried out about the role of Economic Decoupling embedded in the Capability principle to evaluate the correlation between the expected increase of economic production and the level of carbon intensity in the Member States. The study proposes a simple mathematical model as a policy tool to assess and redistribute Member States’ carbon budgets as frequently as necessary to encourage progress or overcome the difficulties each Member State may face during the decarbonization pathways.

Economic modelling plays a major role in the development, justification and evaluation of energy policies. However, there has been little investigation of how political dynamics systematically influence these models’ development and outputs, or the implications for energy strategies, targets and interventions. Using in-depth interviews with 24 European modellers and policyworkers, we illuminate the politics of economic modelling within European Union (EU) energy policymaking, focusing on dynamics of contestation, differentiated influence and power relations within models’ a) framing of questions and problems; b) framing of scenarios and solutions; c) structural assumptions and d) definition of quantitative data inputs. We then consider deeper questions of e) access and exclusion, showing how modelling is used to silence critical voices and reinforce incumbent interests. We argue that understanding this politics of modelling is crucial to the implementation of sustainable energy transitions. We conclude with recommendations for researchers and policyworkers seeking to promote the use of alternative/innovative models in energy policy (within and beyond the EU), centring on reflexivity; recognition; and relationship-building. Developing multi-sectoral ‘communities of practice’ around innovative modelling approaches is vital in challenging a vicious circle of evidence and policy that legitimises business-as-usual in a dangerously warming world.

This book is an exploration of energy and its unique role as a fundamental enabling factor in the development and progress of global civilisation.

We report the results of a structured expert elicitation to identify the most likely types of potential food system disruption scenarios for the UK, focusing on routes to civil unrest. We take a backcasting approach by defining as an end-point a societal event in which 1 in 2000 people have been injured in the UK, which 40% of experts rated as “Possible (20–50%)”, “More likely than not (50–80%)” or “Very likely (>80%)” over the coming decade. Over a timeframe of 50 years, this increased to 80% of experts. The experts considered two food system scenarios and ranked their plausibility of contributing to the given societal scenario. For a timescale of 10 years, the majority identified a food distribution problem as the most likely. Over a timescale of 50 years, the experts were more evenly split between the two scenarios, but over half thought the most likely route to civil unrest would be a lack of total food in the UK. However, the experts stressed that the various causes of food system disruption are interconnected and can create cascading risks, highlighting the importance of a systems approach. We encourage food system stakeholders to use these results in their risk planning and recommend future work to support prevention, preparedness, response and recovery planning.

PLEDGES (Pledge Limits Evaluation for Decarbonization: Goals of the EU27 Strategy) is a new simulation-based tool that for the first time attempts to include in its scope the whole carbon budget distribution across all European Union member states (EU27).The model is built using System Dynamics and presents a radial structure which interconnects the EU27 carbon budget with each Member State (MS) budget.MSs are connected with each other, allowing for the assessment of emissions compensation strategies in terms of pledge quotas assigned to each country in the case of a deviation from an established "cap policy".In PLEDGES, the cap policy is implemented to comply with the Green Deal decarbonization objectives in 2030 (-55% emissions vs 2005) and 2050 (carbon neutrality).PLEDGES is easily customized, quick to respond and easy to use, which allows policymakers to review decarbonization policy and compensation strategies as frequently as necessary and to analyse their implication on MSs concerning the Green Deal objectives.

The European Green Deal comprises various policy initiatives with the goal of reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. The “Fit for 55 packages” include the Social Climate Fund, which aims to help, among others, vulnerable households and transport users meet the costs of the green energy transition. Thus, analyzing households’ expenditures and the associated carbon emissions is crucial to achieving a net-zero society. In the present study, we combine scenarios of households’ expenditures according to the Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose with economic decoupling scenarios to assess, for the first time, the European carbon budget allocation on a consumption basis. Expenditure projections based on socioeconomic scenarios were calculated using the Bayesian structural time series, and the associated emissions were estimated through the greenhouse gas intensity of the Gross Domestic Product. The model can be used to report the carbon budget of households and monitor the effectiveness of the measures funded by the Social Climate Fund. However, the emissions burden obtained by means of averaged greenhouse gas intensity of Gross Domestic Product results in a rough approximation of outcomes, and more accurate indicators should be developed across the member states.

Extrapolation of the current ‘energy bind’ from a systems perspective indicates that the global paradigm will likely follow one of three pathways; this trifurcation leads to branches with fundamentally distinct features. The first (Fossil-Seneca Branch) represents ‘Business-As-Usual’ in terms of continued fossil fuel (and nuclear fission) use; the combination of climatic changes combined with resource depletion gives rise to the risk of a Seneca collapse. The second (Continued Growth Branch) involves a transition to an energy system underpinned by nuclear fusion and/or renewables based technologies which could allow open-ended energy use growth. Both technologies have technical and resource constraints, but even if open-ended growth could be achieved it would likely result in multiple negative effects for global society. The third (Stabilisation Branch) involves stabilisation of energy use using renewables technologies; implementing this would involve significant systemic, resource and other challenges but would likely provide the optimal outcome for global civilisation.

Abstract This paper highlights how actuarial thinking could contribute to the development of a justice perspective relating to biodiversity risks and also the implications for actuarial work. The impact of biodiversity loss as well as the use of ecosystem services is not equally distributed across society (both intra and inter generationally). The Biodiversity and Natural Capital Risk Working Party has been setup to proactively take forward a series of activities including think pieces, webinars and external engagement on these risks.