In a large clinical registry for the province of Manitoba, Canada, FRAX predicted incident MOF and hip fracture from 1 to 15 years following baseline assessment. A simple linear rescaling of FRAX outputs seems useful for predicting both short- and long-term fracture risk in this population.

ABSTRACT Decreased lumbar spine trabecular bone score (TBS), a dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)-derived image texture measurement, is a risk factor for major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture (HF) independent of 10-year fracture probability estimated using FRAX. We determined how often applying the TBS adjustment to fracture probability altered treatment qualification. Using a population-based registry containing all clinical DXA results for Manitoba, Canada, we identified 34,316 women with baseline spine and hip DXA, FRAX-based fracture probability measurements (computed with femoral neck bone mineral density), lumbar spine TBS, and minimum 5 years of observation (mean 8.7 years). Population-based health services data were used to identify incident non-traumatic MOF and HF in 3503 and 945 women, respectively. Baseline MOF and HF probabilities were estimated using FRAX before and after applying the TBS adjustment. Risk recategorization was assessed using net reclassification improvement (NRI) for individual FRAX-based intervention criteria and three national clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) (US National Osteoporosis Foundation, Osteoporosis Canada, and UK National Osteoporosis Guideline Group). Overall, proportions of women reclassified with the TBS adjustment to FRAX were small (less than 5%) with more than 90% of the reclassification occurring close to the intervention threshold. For women close to an intervention cut-off reclassification, rates ranged from 9.0% to 17.9% and were <1% otherwise. There was a small but significant improvement in overall NRI for all individual FRAX-based intervention criteria (range 0.007 to 0.018) and all three national CPGs (range 0.008 to 0.011). NRI was larger in women below age 65 years (up to 0.056 for hip fracture). In summary, a small but significant improvement in MOF and HF risk assessment was found by using lumbar spine TBS to adjust FRAX probability. An improvement in risk reclassification was observed for CPGs from three different countries, with almost all of the benefit found in individuals close to an intervention threshold. © 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. © 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Falls and fractures share several common risk factors. Although past falls is not included as an input variable in the FRAX calculator, we demonstrate that FRAX probability predicts risk of incident falls in the MrOs Sweden cohort.

The incidence of hip fracture in Sweden is substantially lower in immigrants than in the population born in Sweden. Thus, the use of a FRAX® model in immigrants overestimates the risk of fracture, and the use of country of origin-specific models may be more appropriate.

Daily teriparatide injections have been shown to reduce vertebral and non-vertebral fractures. Here, we demonstrate that the magnitude of fracture risk reduction is independent of baseline fracture probability assessed by FRAX.

Subjects with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) are at increased risk for hip and other major osteoporotic fractures. However, previous analyses have not fully accounted for differences in bone mineral density (BMD) and other clinical factors that affect the risk of fracture. The World Health Organization Fracture Risk Assessment tool (FRAX) can be used to predict the 10‐year fracture risk from BMD and clinical risk factors. A population‐based database containing clinical information on all IBD subjects in the province of Manitoba, Canada, was linked with the Manitoba Bone Mineral Density Database, which contains results of all dual X‐ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans in the province. FRAX probabilities were calculated for all subjects aged 50 years or more undergoing baseline DXA testing. Subjects were followed for occurrence of major osteoporotic fractures (MOF; hip, clinical spine, wrist, humerus). Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine whether IBD was independently predictive of MOF or hip fracture. After controlling for FRAX fracture probability computed with BMD, IBD was not associated with a significantly increased risk for MOF (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.83–1.55) but was associated with an increased risk for hip fracture (HR = 2.14; 95% CI, 1.26–3.65). The addition of femoral neck T‐score to FRAX probability without knowledge of BMD had a negligible effect on the estimated HRs for IBD, suggesting that IBD mediates any effect on fracture risk independently of femoral neck BMD. After controlling for FRAX probability, subjects with IBD are not at an increased risk for overall MOF, but may be at increased risk of hip fracture. © 2013 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Adipocytes and osteoblasts share a common progenitor, and there is, therefore, potential for both autocrine and endocrine effects of adiponectin on skeletal metabolism. The aim of the present study was to determine whether high serum adiponectin was associated with an increased risk of fracture in elderly men. We studied the relationship between serum adiponectin and the risk of fracture in 999 elderly men drawn from the general population and recruited to the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) study in Gothenburg, Sweden. Baseline data included general health questionnaires, lifestyle questionnaires, body mass index (BMI), bone mineral density (BMD), serum adiponectin, osteocalcin, and leptin. Men were followed for up to 7.4 years (average, 5.2 years). Poisson regression was used to investigate the relationship between serum adiponectin, other risk variables and the time‐to‐event hazard function of fracture. Median levels of serum adiponectin at baseline were 10.4 µg/mL (interquartile range, 7.7–14.3). During follow‐up, 150 men sustained one or more fractures. The risk of fracture increased in parallel with increasing serum adiponectin (hazard ratio [HR]/SD, 1.46; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.23–1.72) and persisted after multivariate‐adjusted analysis (HR/SD, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.09–1.55). Serum adiponectin shows graded stepwise association with a significant excess risk of fracture in elderly men that was independent of several other risk factors for fracture. Its measurement holds promise as a risk factor for fracture in men. © 2012 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

The study objective was to determine whether diabetes is a risk factor for incident hip or major osteoporotic fractures independent of the WHO fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX). Men and women with diabetes (n = 3518) and nondiabetics (n = 36,085) aged ≥50 years at the time of bone mineral density (BMD) testing (1990 to 2007) were identified in a large clinical database from Manitoba, Canada. FRAX probabilities were calculated, and fracture outcomes to 2008 were established via linkage with a population‐based data repository. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine if diabetes was associated with incident hip fractures or major osteoporotic fractures after controlling for FRAX risk factors. Mean 10‐year probabilities of fracture were similar between groups for major fractures (diabetic 11.1 ± 7.2 versus nondiabetic 10.9 ± 7.3, p = 0.116) and hip fractures (diabetic 2.9 ± 4.4 versus nondiabetic 2.8 ± 4.4, p = 0.400). Diabetes was a significant predictor of subsequent major osteoporotic fracture (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.61, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.42–1.83) after controlling for age, sex, medication use, and FRAX risk factors including BMD. Similar results were seen after adjusting for FRAX probability directly (HR = 1.59, 95% CI 1.40–1.79). Diabetes was also associated with significantly higher risk for hip fractures (p < 0.001). Higher mortality from diabetes attenuated but did not eliminate the excess fracture risk. FRAX underestimated observed major osteoporotic and hip fracture risk in diabetics (adjusted for competing mortality) but demonstrated good concordance with observed fractures for nondiabetics. We conclude that diabetes confers an increased risk of fracture that is independent of FRAX derived with BMD. This suggests that diabetes might be considered for inclusion in future iterations of FRAX. © 2012 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research