Initial successes in flood control in the Tisza River Basin (TRB) have repeatedly given way to surprising and catastrophic reversals over the past 130years since implementation of the original Vásárhelyi river engineering plan. Recurrent and parallel crises in economic, ecological and socio-cultural domains of the TRB suggest systemic linkages far broader than imagined in the economic paradigms that drove the reshaping of the TRB. Typical of ‘policy resistance’, these problems have ‘wickedly’ resisted repeated efforts to solve them. Future river basin management needs conceptual and methodological tools to develop more comprehensive models that account for the complexity of the wider diversity of these systemic linkages and the resultant non-linear dynamics. Biocomplexity is one attempt to elaborate a more comprehensive conceptual paradigm. This paper describes how the authors applied a method, causal loop diagramming, as a means to graphically examine what aspects of system structure might generate surprising and counter-intuitive policy reversals characteristic of wicked problems. We applied this method in advance of collaboration with stakeholders as a means to deepen our intuition about the system's complexity as a way to better prepare to facilitate participatory modeling exercises within the Adaptive Management (AM) tradition.

The sustainability crisis in the Tisza River Basin (TRB) has developed slowly and incrementally over the past 130 years since implementation of the original Vasarhelyi plan. The high visibility of floods caused most resources to be funneled into, a massive flood defense system that repeatedly failed to match the rising intensity and frequencies of floods. The Hungarian public view, blinded by flood and toxic spill catastrophes, missed the slow and subtle changes to natural, social and human capital precipitated by the reshaping of the TRB landscape and its agriculture. While conversion of the TRB from a polyculture to a monoculture produced a great deal of financial capital for an aristocratic minority, the gradual drain of alternatives forms of capital left the region less and less resilient in the face of ecological (floods), economic (globalization) and political (war) shocks. Domination by central authorities over the past 50 years reduced local civic capacity to levels of passivity that make most communities incapable of innovating to find sustainability solutions, and this trend is reinforced by on-going paternalistic attitudes in the Hungarian national government. Efforts to achieve sustainability should aid stakeholders at local, regional and national levels to see how the situation developed and experiment with policies to rebuild the region's heritage. Understanding requires new ideas on value (alternative forms of capital) and change (resilience theory) to be tested in local and regional experiments that identify how to improve these ideas as well as practices to implement them. Efforts to link understanding with innovative practices require citizen-science dialogues, such as Adaptive Management, to allow cooperation between stakeholders and actors in all phases of research, management monitoring, and formulation of policy.

The erosion of biocomplexity in the Tisza River Basin developed slowly and incrementally over the past 130 years since implementation of the original Vásárhelyi river engineering plan. The Hungarian public view, blinded by flood and toxic spill catastrophes, missed the slow and subtle changes to natural, social and human capital precipitated by the reshaping of the TRB landscape and its agriculture for flood defence and grain production. While conversion of the TRB from a fruit/nut/ fishery polyculture to a wheat monoculture produced a great deal of financial capital for an aristocratic minority, the gradual drain of alternatives forms of capital left the region less and less resilient in the face of ecological (floods), economic (globalization) and political (war) shocks. Domination by central authorities over the past 50 years reduced local civic capacity to levels of passivity that make most communities incapable of innovating to find sustainability solutions, and this trend is reinforced by on- going paternalistic attitudes in the Hungarian national government. Poverty, passivity, apathy and the severe consequences of failure in the event of flooding have severely reduced Adaptive Capacity, the potential to innovate and adapt to uncertainty. Both Nature and Society have evolved considerably since 1870, so simple reverse engineering futilely aims to resurrect a system that no longer exists. Since the knowledge to un-straighten and reflood a river basin is in its infancy, we must learn as we go along, humble in the knowledge that management interventions often only increase uncertainty and can push the system further into a degraded state. This paper describes an initiative to use conceptual and formal modelling within an Adaptive Management framework to facilitate a regional discussion on how to manage the TRB while inventing a pathway back to a more resilient socio-ecosystem, linking natural and social processes.

Az elmúlt évtizedben világszerte növekszik az árvízkatasztrófák száma és intenzitása. Nem kivétel ez alól Magyarország sem, amelyet az utóbbi években árvizek és belvizek sorozata sújtott. Az egyik leginkább érintett terület a tanulmányunk tárgyát képező Felső-Tiszavidék. Kutatásunk célja az volt, hogy feltérképezzük a főbb érintettek vélemé-nyét az árvizek és belvizek súlyosbodását el ő idéző okokról, az ár- és belvizek következményeiről, a károk kompenzálásáról, az árvízvédelem finanszírozásáról, valamint a kockázatcsökkentés és kockázatmegosztás lehetőségeiről. Eredményeink mélyinterjúk elemzésén alapulnak, amelyek válaszadói felső -Tiszavidéki önkormányzati vezetők, vállalkozók, civil szervezeti vezetők, valamint regionális és országos vízügyi, mezőgazdasági, környezetvédelmi és katasztrófavédelmi szakemberek voltak.

Reproduction in Domestic AnimalsVolume 34, Issue 3-4 p. 377-379 Adaptation of Respiration to Extrauterine-Life in Healthy Newborn Calves J Varga, J Varga Department of Obstetrics and Reproduction, University of Veterinary Science, Budapest, HungarySearch for more papers by this authorL Mester, L Mester Department of Obstetrics and Reproduction, University of Veterinary Science, Budapest, HungarySearch for more papers by this authorL Börzsönyi, L Börzsönyi Department of Obstetrics and Reproduction, University of Veterinary Science, Budapest, HungarySearch for more papers by this authorCs Erdész, Cs Erdész Department of Obstetrics and Reproduction, University of Veterinary Science, Budapest, HungarySearch for more papers by this authorA Vári, A Vári Department of Obstetrics and Reproduction, University of Veterinary Science, Budapest, HungarySearch for more papers by this authorPS Körmöczi, PS Körmöczi Department of Obstetrics and Reproduction, University of Veterinary Science, Budapest, HungarySearch for more papers by this authorO Szenci, O Szenci Department of Obstetrics and Reproduction, University of Veterinary Science, Budapest, HungarySearch for more papers by this author J Varga, J Varga Department of Obstetrics and Reproduction, University of Veterinary Science, Budapest, HungarySearch for more papers by this authorL Mester, L Mester Department of Obstetrics and Reproduction, University of Veterinary Science, Budapest, HungarySearch for more papers by this authorL Börzsönyi, L Börzsönyi Department of Obstetrics and Reproduction, University of Veterinary Science, Budapest, HungarySearch for more papers by this authorCs Erdész, Cs Erdész Department of Obstetrics and Reproduction, University of Veterinary Science, Budapest, HungarySearch for more papers by this authorA Vári, A Vári Department of Obstetrics and Reproduction, University of Veterinary Science, Budapest, HungarySearch for more papers by this authorPS Körmöczi, PS Körmöczi Department of Obstetrics and Reproduction, University of Veterinary Science, Budapest, HungarySearch for more papers by this authorO Szenci, O Szenci Department of Obstetrics and Reproduction, University of Veterinary Science, Budapest, HungarySearch for more papers by this author First published: 09 October 2007 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1439-0531.1999.tb01268.xCitations: 8AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. 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