ABSTRACT: This paper provides an updated assessment of living standards, opportunities for life progression and well-being across the island of Ireland. Drawing on recent analysis, we examine household disposable income, private and public consumption, earnings, educational participation, early school leaving, patterns of government spending and taxation, and health indicators including infant mortality and life expectancy, revealing widening gaps in income, persistent disparities in educational outcomes and notable differences in health performance. Life expectancy is highlighted as a cumulative measure of welfare. Northern Ireland held a slight advantage until the mid-2000s but the Republic of Ireland has since overtaken it and widened the gap. Today, life expectancy at birth is approximately two years higher in the Republic, arguably reflecting structural differences in income, education and healthcare access. These results provide insights into the evolving economic and social landscape of both jurisdictions and carry important implications for policy design and North–South relations.

This paper examines youth employment and temporary youth employment across the EU-27 countries and the UK, focussing on the role of labour market institutions. Using EU Labour Force Survey data, we analyse trends and drivers of both overall and temporary youth employment and assess how institutional factors influence these outcomes. Our results show that while youth employment rates tend to converge across countries during recoveries, temporary youth employment remains segmented, especially where employment protection is stricter. Higher levels of education and job quality are associated with better youth employment outcomes and reduced exposure to temporary contracts, consistent with established findings in the literature. Overall, the findings highlight the role of institutional arrangements in shaping youth labour market adjustment and suggest that convergence in headline employment outcomes can coexist with persistent segmentation in contract types across Europe.

Ageing populations and the resulting pressures on health and social care systems as well as social security systems are causing disability prevalence to be an increasingly salient issue in Northern Ireland (NI) and Ireland, as well as in many other developed societies. A greater understanding of disability prevalence is therefore important as policies in a number of relevant areas adapt to this changing landscape. The censuses in NI and Ireland and the subsequent individual level data which are available allow for side-by-side case studies of a range of economic and social issues, including disability. While this contributes to understanding of policyrelevant issues on an all-island basis, differences remain and they are not perfectly comparable. While the census questions differ between jurisdictions, the data support meaningful side-by-side comparisons and the results are interpreted with appropriate caution. This is the first work to examine disability rates across the island of Ireland. Disability prevalence, as measured by self-reported disability from the respective censuses amongst those aged 20–69 years, is broadly similar across Ireland and Northern Ireland, with rates of 23 per cent in Northern Ireland and 22 per cent in Ireland.

Northern Ireland occupies a unique position following Brexit and the Windsor Framework. It is part of the UK fiscal, welfare and monetary unions – where the main policy levers are mostly exercised at a UK national level – along with its national economic policies for devolved administrations and regions. Simultaneously, it remains within the EU Single Market for goods with Dual EU/UK regulatory regimes, participates in the Common Travel Area (CTA) between the United Kingdom and Ireland and is supported by a commitment to continue specified areas of North-South cooperation. The economic effects of this will continue to evolve over time. Whatever the background situation, it is clear that the economies of both Northern Ireland and Ireland can have a mutually beneficial impact on each other through improved economic outcomes on both sides of the border and enhanced interaction. This report discusses the development of a model for the Northern Ireland economy. The model can be used to produce economic forecasts and to examine the effects of economic policies and shocks. The framework captures the various linkages between the Northern Ireland economy and that of Ireland and so aids our wider understanding of how the Northern Ireland economy functions within the context of the wider all-island economy. The modelling framework also captures linkages to Great Britain and the international economy. By developing such a model and ensuring that the unique features of the Northern Ireland economy – that it is part of the United Kingdom while also being part of the EU Single Market – are built into the model, we can better understand the evolution of the Northern Ireland economy and what it means for the all-island economy. The model can be used to generate a baseline projection over the medium term for Northern Ireland and the all-island economy. GDP growth in Northern Ireland is expected to average around 1.2 per cent per annum over the medium term, similar to its longer-term historical trend, although it is expected to be somewhat higher in the short term. The challenge of relatively low productivity in Northern Ireland needs to be addressed through sustained productivity enhancing investment to improve long-term economic prospects and living standards. While expected growth in Northern Ireland is relatively modest compared to Ireland, it is slightly stronger than the wider UK, in part driven by stronger export growth bolstered by demand from Ireland and its relatively more favourable (than the UK) trading relationship with the European Union. With growth in Ireland expected to moderate in the coming years from previous extraordinarily high rates, our projections are for growth in the all-island economy to average around 2.2 per cent per annum over the medium term. With the period of high inflation rates over, real wage growth is expected to support increases in real personal disposable income in the all-island economy over the medium term. The modelling framework allows us to examine the effects of economic policies and shocks – both emanating from within Northern Ireland and from the outside world – on Northern Ireland, Ireland, the all-island economy, the UK and the international economy. The report considers a range of policy shocks and other external shocks. For example, the report develops a hypothetical scenario that is consistent with more devolution in Northern Ireland where income tax rates are increased and where the Northern Ireland Executive receives the revenue which it can then use for additional government spending and/or investment. This can also be seen as a proxy for the Northern Ireland Executive raising taxes on Northern Irish households in ways that it can do currently. In both scenarios, the overall impact on the level of Northern Irish output is positive but the impact is stronger and permanent in the case of higher government investment. The simulation results suggest that increased government spending leads to an increase (or ‘crowding-in’) of private sector investment which can enhance productivity. The stronger and permanent impact on overall output in the case of higher investment compared to higher spending highlights the importance of how the revenue is spent. In a similar vein, we examine scenarios where there is an increase in the block grant to Northern Ireland, which stimulates demand, employment and output with stronger impacts when the additional resources are used for government investment rather than government consumption spending. The report also considers a monetary policy shock, specifically an increase in the Bank of England interest rate and the simulation results suggest that the Northern Ireland economy is less sensitive to interest rate changes than the wider UK. The report also considers spillover effects from stronger growth in the Irish economy on the Northern Ireland economy and the impact on the all-island economy, focusing on positive shocks to Irish consumption and exports. The simulations reveal positive impacts in both cases on the Northern Ireland economy. Additionally, the report analyses the sensitivity of Northern Ireland's economy to global oil and gas price shocks. The simulations show a short-term spike in inflation that moderates over time, with output and investment recovering in the medium term after initially falling below the baseline.

This paper builds on a study of educational differences across Ireland and Northern Ireland to explore the relationship between educational attainment, social background and wages. We find evidence of substantial wage premia across all qualification levels in Ireland relative to Northern Ireland, a pattern that is widespread, and not merely driven by higher returns to professional occupations or FDI employment. The mean wage gap was 27% in 2014 in favour of Ireland, and approximately 25% of this difference can be explained by lower levels of educational attainment in Northern Ireland. We find that levels of educational attainment (early school leaving) are substantially lower (higher) in Northern Ireland relative to Ireland. There is also evidence of differences in how the education level of parents affects offspring's attainment. We conclude that academic selection in Northern Ireland is likely to contribute to limiting the extent to which the educational system facilitates intergenerational educational mobility.

The Irish residential property market is currently characterized by a considerable structural deficiency in housing supply compared to the underlying level of demand. The lack of housing has led to several economic and social problems in Ireland. The imbalance between supply and demand has led to both house prices and rents increasing faster than household incomes. Recent policy initiatives by the Irish Government have outlined plans for significant spending aimed at increasing the numbers of housing completions to tackle these issues. This paper examines the impact of government spending on housing supply using a structural econometric model of the Irish economy with a specific construction block. Within our econometric analysis, we compare the results of an economy wide versus a sector specific government stimulus on the property market. Our simulations suggest that, in order to achieve social and economic goals like increasing the number of dwellings and making housing more affordable by containing house price inflation, a targeted policy such as that described in the Irish Government's Housing for All plan may be preferable to an economy-wide stimulus.

This study draws on international and national survey data, administrative data, 31 interviews with 35 policy stakeholders and input from a consultation with stakeholders to document commonalities and differences between the education systems in Ireland and Northern Ireland. Remarkably, it is the first study to systematically compare the systems from primary to tertiary levels and it is hoped that the findings will provide insights for future policy learning in both jurisdictions. The study is timely given the independent review of education being conducted in Northern Ireland and ongoing reviews, especially at primary and upper secondary levels, in Ireland.

These four papers are part of a research programme on 'The Economic and Social Opportunities from Increased Cooperation on the Shared Island'. This is the second year of the joint research programme between the Department of the Taoiseach’s Shared Island unit and the ESRI, and areas of research in 2022 will examine: Childcare and early years education in Ireland and Northern Ireland All-island energy infrastructure and renewable energy supports Migrant integration on the island Productivity levels North and South

This study examines sectoral productivity differences in Ireland and Northern Ireland and attempts to understand these by identifying the key determinants of productivity in both economies within a causal framework. While some existing studies have compared Northern Ireland’s productivity to that of GB regions, we believe that this is the first comprehensive study to compare productivity in Ireland and Northern Ireland.

Despite private hospitals occupying an important role in the delivery of acute hospital care in Ireland, an understanding of future spending pressures on these services is limited. Particularly, a key dimension of Ireland's ambitious roadmap for healthcare reform (Sláintecare) seeks to remove private practice from public hospitals. However, to date, there has been no examination of how this reform could impact private hospital demand and expenditure, and ultimately, the capacity to treat public patients. Using previously unavailable administrative health insurer data and a healthcare macro-simulation projection model, we project real (volume-based) and nominal expenditure on private hospital services over the medium-term (2018-2035). We develop a number of projection scenarios that vary assumptions in relation to population growth and ageing, healthy ageing, and the future cost of care delivery. Additionally, by developing profiles of private activity in public hospitals, we examine how the removal of private practice from public hospitals could impact on demand and expenditure in private hospitals over time. Findings from this analysis have implications for capital investment and workforce planning in private hospitals, and failure to meet future demand could have implications for access to care in public hospitals. Moreover, should private practice be ended in public hospitals, most complex private in-patient and emergency care is likely to remain within the public hospitals with limited capacity benefits for the public system.

Using a matching framework and high-quality administrative longitudinal and survey data, we evaluate the effectiveness of a second-chance education opportunity scheme, the Back to Education Allowance (BTEA), in assisting jobseekers to find employment on completion of their course. The results from two separate datasets indicate that BTEA scheme participation had large negative consequences for subsequent employment transitions. Further analysis revealed the negative impacts are likely to be related to flaws in the BTEA scheme framework rather than deficits in the quality of the education received. These results hold when tested against the influences of sample selection and unobserved heterogeneity bias.

The mission of the Economic and Social Research Institute is to advance evidencebased policymaking that supports economic sustainability and social progress in Ireland.ESRI researchers apply the highest standards of academic excellence to challenges facing policymakers, focusing on 12 areas of critical importance to 21 st century Ireland.The Institute was founded in 1960 by a group of senior civil servants led by Dr T. K. Whitaker, who identified the need for independent and in-depth research analysis to provide a robust evidence base for policymaking in Ireland.Since then, the Institute has remained committed to independent research and its work is free of any expressed ideology or political position.The

The social inclusion of children with disabilities, and in particular their inclusion in early learning and care settings, is key to maximising their wellbeing, care and future education. It is therefore vital that children with disabilities have equal access to early learning and school age care and education. Joint research, published by the ESRI and Pobal explores a number of existing challenges experienced by children with disabilities in this area.

This study is among the early contributions to developing the evidence base necessary for any future Northern Ireland border poll. It outlines relevant facts from existing data and identifies areas where new evidence must be established through future research.

Given the increased prominence of a border poll in Ireland, particularly following the outcome of the Brexit referendum, this paper provides an initial assessment of some of the issues that are likely to become central in any debate on this issue. We examine the relative income and growth position of Northern Ireland within a UK and Irish regional framework over time. We further compare, and contrast, in detail aspects of the structure of both economies on the island of Ireland in the areas of educational attainment, trade orientation and the role of Foreign Direct Investment. The paper goes on to analyse other relevant issues, such as the relative strength and weaknesses of the healthcare systems and the factors determining the potential economic cost of Irish unification. The objective of the research is to initiate an evidence-based approach to the question of a border poll and to provide an initial indication of the breadth of detail and analysis required for any debate to proceed in a meaningful manner.

Background: Until recently, Irish age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were amongst the highest in the EU15. This study examines changes in ASMRs in Ireland from 1956 to 2014. Methods: Using data from the World Health Organization Mortality Database, we compare ASMRs in Ireland to other EU-15 countries from 1956 to 2014. ASMRS are used to plot the relative ranking of Ireland within the EU-15, and illustrate trends in which Ireland diverged with, and converged to, the EU-15 average. ASMRS are estimated across sex, age groups (15-64 and 65+ years) and cause of death. Results: Between 1956 and 1999, ASMRs in Ireland were amongst the highest in the EU-15. ASMRs in Ireland saw slower improvements during this period as compared to other EU-15 countries. However, post-2000, a sharp reduction in Irish ASMRs resulted in an accelerated convergence to the EU-15 average. As a consequence of improvements in ASMRs between 2000 and 2014, there were an estimated 15 300 fewer deaths in 2014. The majority of these averted deaths were due to lower mortality rates for diseases of the circulatory system and respiratory system. Conclusions: Rather than converging to the EU-15 average during the latter half of the 20th century, there was a divergence in ASMRs between Ireland and the EU-15. However, in recent years, Ireland experienced accelerated improvements in mortality rates with large reductions in mortality observed for diseases of the circulatory system and respiratory system, especially amongst older people.

This study examines differences in mortality in Ireland and the EU-15 between 1956 and 2014 and provides insights into the causes of death and age groups responsible for the recent convergence to our EU-15 peers.

The ESRI published a report, funded by the Department of Housing, Local Heritage and Government, which provides estimates of the amount of housing needed based on projected population growth at a local authority level out to 2040.