In 2017, Nigeria, a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO), signed the agreement on ‘Gender and Trade’. The main focus of the agreement is ‘inclusive trade and gender equality’. Similarly in July 2019, Nigeria signed the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement (AfCFTA). The main objective is to remove tariffs on 90% of goods, thereby encouraging more intra-regional trade across the African continent. In 2020, a World Bank report on women and trade argues for the positive and negative effects of trade, trade agreements, and trade policies on women. Women in developing countries including Nigeria are said to make up 33% of the total workforce of exporting firms. Based on the World Bank report, there are concerns that AfCFTA may facilitate competitive pressures on labor and capital markets which tend to discriminate against women due to lack of capacity. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the direct and indirect effects of exports on women’s social inclusion in the period before and after 2017. Utilizing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) with a policy shift period of 2017, in the short-run, results reveal that, increases in all exports, majorly, have positive and significant indirect effects on women inclusion that is more prominent in female primary school enrollment rate. In the long run, increases in manufactured and agriculture exports had positive and significant indirect effects on women inclusion through female primary school enrollment. The study recommended among others the targeting of parents or guardians of children in primary schools for some trade incentives or employment in the export sector. Women’s participation in agriculture should be encouraged through access to high quality inputs and provision of gender-focused training in their application. Revamping of the food export sector and improved investment in human capital development; mainly health and education with a special focus on the female folk in order to enhance women inclusion are advocated.

ABSTRACT: Among major development organizations, the unchallenged consensus is that war and conflict are development issues ravaging local economies, often leading to forced migration, refugee populations, and acute food insecurity. Food insecurity when caused by a rise in food prices is a threat for violent conflict. This study was conducted in Nigeria using three types of quantitative data which are the general household panel data, monthly retailed commodity prices, and violent conflict data from 2010 to 2019. This study examines the linkages between conflict, food price shocks, and food security outcomes of households in Nigeria. Per capita daily calorie intake, household dietary diversity, and per capita monthly food consumption were the three food security outcomes used for this study. Fixed effects panel regression models were used to determine the effects of conflict-induced food price shocks on the food security outcomes of households. I was found that dietary diversity appeared to be higher in the first wave than in the other three waves. The measure of dietary diversity for the post-harvests were slightly higher than the post-plantings. The high dietary diversity associated with the post-harvest periods is partly related to the relatively higher net value of foods consumed during the same season. This is because the amount of food calories consumed during the post-harvest periods are relatively lower than the amount consumed during the post-planting periods. Regardless of the conflict level in Nigeria, an increase in conflict-induced price shock of wheat, and rice is associated with a decline in calorie intake, dietary diversity, and the actual food value consumed. The conflict-induced price shocks of other cereals negatively influence the actual food value consumed, and dietary diversity. It is concluded that violent conflict influences some aspects of food insecurity, through adjustment in diets in response to price increases. Conflict-induced price shocks is a necessary condition for food security. Therefore, policy issues aimed at improving the food security outcomes of households in the face of conflict-induced price shocks should focus on price scheme that will stabilise price placing a price floor on food commodities.

There have been increase in the incidence of fake crop seeds in Nigerian market. This has multiple implications on crop yield and food security. In order to address this problem the National Agricultural Seed Council (NASC) in 2019 introduced a seed quality assurance tagging and tracking system named SEEDCODEX into the Nigerian seed induatry. Meanwhile, there is no knowledge about the impact of the new system on the industry. This study therefore assessed the impact of Seedcodex on the industry with the aim of understanding the level of awareness, use and constriants among key actors in the seed value chain. Also it has to identify socioeconomic variables affecting the use of seedcodex among end users and come up with recommendations which are capable of enhancing the achievement of the objectives of the system. Data were collected from 44 seed companies, 57 agrodealers and 211 farmers and analyzed with Contingent valuation willingness to pay (WTP), Logit and Tobit regressions. Results revealed that seed companies were aware of Seedcodex and posited that its introduction has increased cost of production, but believed it will sanitize agricultural seed market. All the agrodealers were aware of Seedcodex. Majority of the farmers plant seeds produced by companies and sold by agro-dealers, while few others source seeds from fellow farmers, or use previous year harvest. Only about 31% of the farmers were aware of Seedcodex, among whom majority usually scratch the code but some do not send such for authentication. The Logit estimation revealed that increase in age reduced the likelihood of using the code while education, farm size and access to credit increased the likelihood of using it for authentication. The contingent valuation of WTP revealed that farmers were willing to pay 26.82% extra to obtain certified quality seeds. The Tobit regression estimation revealed that farmers' age and extension contact reduced WTP amount, while farming experience and farm size increased it. It is recommended that efforts be made to attend to companies' complaints on the cost of seed labels and/or create labels corresponding to weight of seed packages in place of the present flat rate, ensure timely delivery and educate farmers more on SEEDCODEX.

Despite increasing population and inequality in most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and their tendencies to aggravate hunger there is still dearth of knowledge on their effects on hunger in the region. Therefore, the study used data for 46 SSA countries from 2007 to 2017 to examine the effects of inequality and population on hunger by adopting the System Generalized Method of Moment approach as it is specifically applicable in this situation. Results showed that inequality ( p < 0.01) and population growth ( p < 0.1) significantly increased the level of hunger, while GDP per capita ( p < 0.01) and Food Production index ( p < 0.1) significantly reduced hunger in the region. Arellano–Bond test confirmed the validity of the GMM results by rejecting the null hypothesis of non-existence of autocorrelation of the first order and accepting that of the second order in the disturbance term, while the Hansen and Sargan tests affirmed that variables used as instruments were valid in line with expectations. Robustness of the result was also confirmed as the coefficient of the lagged response variable (0.8701) fell between the fixed effect model estimate (0.5165) and pooled OLS estimate (0.9571) in line with theory. The study recommended policies capable of reducing inequality, boosting economic growth, and controlling excessive population growth, while food production and value addition are encouraged in order to avert hunger in the region.

In paper was used the panel data from the Nigeria General Household Survey and commodity prices from alternative sources between 2010-2016 to estimate farm households' food and non-food demand in Nigeria. The commodity bundles of all the food groups were necessities goods, as their budget elasticities were positive and also inelastic. Animal products were a luxury good. There is no strong complementary and substitutive relationship existing between the commodity groups as the cross price elasticities estimated were smaller than the own price elasticities. Households' expenditure on pulses is not affected by changes in their own prices. Policy issue such as stable food prices is important in ensuring that households are assisted in and encourage consuming balance diets.

In bridging the knowledge gap on stress physiology of Nigerian indigenous chickens, this study investigated the effect of exogenous corticosterone (eCORT) as stress inducing agent on the testicular function and mating behavior of Nigerian indigenous cocks. Twenty-four (24) cocks and one hundred and forty four (144) hens (mating ratio of 1 cock: 6 hens) were grouped into four and assigned to each of the four eCORT treatments (0, 2, 4 and 6 mgeCORT/KgBW) daily for 14 days. Semen samples were collected on days 0, 7 and 14 and analyzed for semen volume (SV), progressive sperm motility (PSM), membrane integrity (MI) and sperm abnormality (SA). Mating behaviors were monitored on days 3, 5 and 8. Blood samples, for hormonal (Luteinizing Hormone (LH), Follicle Stimulating Hormone (FSH) Testosterone (TEST) and stress analysis (heterophil/lymphocyte ratio, H/L) were collected from brachial vein on days 7 and 14. On day 15, cocks were euthanized and testes harvested for histomorphometry. Data were analyzed using multivariate analysis, one-way ANOVA and Kruskal-Wallis tests all in SPSS 23. Administration of 4 mgeCORT/KgBW declined (P<0.05) PSM while 4 mgeCORT/KgBW and 6 mgeCORT/KgBW cocks had reduced (P<0.05) SV and MI with increased SA. Compared to baseline values, progressive sperm motility of cocks administered 6 mgeCORT for 7 and 14 days decreased (P<0.05) by 57.5% and 52.4%, respectively. Exogenous CORT had no significant (P>0.05) influence on the mating behaviors, H/L ratio, FSH and TEST. However, 2 mgeCORT/KgBW enhanced LH levels. Administration of eCORT did not affect the testicular epithelial height and seminiferous tubular diameter. In conclusion, optimal stress induced by eCORT impaired semen quality but with less impact on reproductive hormones, H/L and mating behaviors of intensively raised Nigerian indigenous cocks.

Purpose Some progress have been made over time in improving health conditions in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). There are, however, contradicting reports on the relationship between health outcomes and economic growth in the region. The paper aimed at assessing the effect of health outcome on economic growth in SSA. Design/methodology/approach Data for 41 countries from 2000 to 2018 were obtained from WDI and WGI and analyzed using system generalized method of moment (sGMM) which is appropriate for the present scenario. AR(1) and AR(2) tests were used to assess the validity of the model while Sargan and Hansen tests were adopted to examine the validity of the instrumental variables. The robustness of the estimation was confirmed using the pooled OLS and fixed effect regression. Findings Health outcome (proxied by life expectancy), lagged GDP per capita, capital formation, labor force (LF), health expenditure (HE), foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade openness (TOP) significantly affected economic growth emphasizing the importance of health in the process of economic growth in the region. AR(1) and AR(2) tests for serial correlation and Sargan/Hansen tests confirmed the validity of the estimated model and the instrumental variables respectively. Robustness of the GMM results was established from the pooled OLS and the fixed effect model results. Social implications Improvement in the national health system possibly through the widespread adoption of National Health Insurance, increase government spending on healthcare alongside increased beneficial trade and ease of doing business to facilitate investment were recommended to enhance. Originality/value The study used up-to-date data with appropriate methodology.

Abstract Aim/purpose – Provision of basic education is pertinent to human capital development, poverty alleviation and abating the threat of insurgence in Africa. Governments in different countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) do budget and spend various amount of money on education every year, but little is known about the effect of such spending on education, especially primary school enrolment which forms the basic educational foundation. Design/methodology/approach – Using data for 24 countries from 2000 to 2016, this study assesses the effect of government educational spending on primary school enrolment in SSA by employing the System-GMM approach. Findings – The results show that government spending has significant (p ≤ 0.05) and positive effect on primary school enrolment in SSA. The results are further confirmed using different diagnostic tests which include the Arellano–Bond test for first and second order autocorrelation in the disturbance term and the Hansen J-test for the validity of the instrumental variables. Other variables analysed (control), which have positive influence on enrolment, include GDP, general number of teachers available, and percentage trained teachers. Population growth rate negatively influences enrolment. Research implications/limitations – The study therefore concludes that increasing spending on education by governments in SSA is sine qua non for improving primary school enrolment rate in the region. Originality/value/contribution – This study has contributed empirically and theoretically to the body of knowledge. The scope covered also makes the study uniquely robust and different from previous ones, though scanty, country-based assessments.

Economies of Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries have been growing slowly in recent time. Economic growth is thought to affect inequality but not much is known about the nature of such relationship in SSA and there is no concordance among the few available. This paper examined the relationship between economic growth and inequality in the region using data from 1990 to 2017estimated with the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model and Granger Causality. Hausman’s test suggested the superiority of the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) over the Mean Group (MG) Model. The PMG results showed that economic growth had significant and negative effect on income inequality (proxy by GINI-coefficient) in the long run suggesting a state of the later part of the Kuznet curve. This is in addition to the negative effect in the short run which is contrary to the theory. Furthermore, the result of the Granger Causality test revealed evidence of unidirectional relationship running from economic growth to income inequality in the region. Therefore, the study recommended that governments of Sub-Saharan African countries should implement policies and programmes capable of sustaining and improving inclusive growth in order to avoid high income inequality in the region.

This paper analyzed the welfare effects of price changes over categories of farm households in Nigeria taking into consideration the dual role of farm households as both consumer and producer of food between 2010–2016. This study attempts to shed some light on the differences between the direct approach and indirect. Estimated Compensating Variation reveals that 79.0% of farm households were net food buyers and suffered welfare loss (mean = 2.98) with the mean expenditure of N529, 397.5 per annum while 21.0% were net food sellers and enjoyed welfare gain (mean = −1.66) with the mean expenditure of N513, 755.7 per annum. Cereal was identified as food for which the households were most vulnerable to price shocks. When adjustments are allowed, households can adapt their consumption and production patterns resulting in lower deteriorations in welfare with significant differences across quintiles. Therefore, efforts to mitigate extreme price spikes are relevant for improved overall household welfare.

There has been influx of official development assistance (foreign aid) into the health sector in Nigeria but little or nothing is known about the impact of such funds on specific health outcomes in Nigeria. Given the economic implication of HIV/AIDS, this study therefore assessed the effect of health aid on the prevalence of the HIV/AIDS in Nigeria. Relevant data spanning 1990 to 2017were sourced from World Development Indicator (WDI) and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) database and analyzed within the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework. Model estimation results revealed that health aid had no significant effect on HIV prevalence in the country. Effective utilization of health aid was advocated in order to reduce the HIV prevalence rate thereby reducing the accompanying burden on the people and the economy.

Using data for 47 SSA countries from 2000 to 2016, the study examined the effect of foreign aid on human development in SSA by employing the System-GMM approach, which is specifically applicable to the present case. Results revealed that aid did not affect human development in SSA, whereas, corruption was found to reduce HDI, while trade openness improved it. Validity of results was confirmed by the Arellano-Bond test for autocorrelation in the disturbance term and the Hansen and Sargan tests for the validity of instrumental variables. The study recommended effective framework for utilization of foreign aid and reduction of corruption.

Aside economic factors causing low human development which have been extensively studied in literature, the implications of high level of corruption and weak governance prevalent in sub- Saharan African (SSA) countries have not been explored. The study assessed the effects of corruption, government effectiveness and their joint effect on human development in SSA. Data collected on thirty-seven (37) countries within the period of 2005 to 2018 were analyzed using system Generalized Method of Moment which was most suitable for the dataset. Results indicated that lagged human development index (P<0.01), government effectiveness (P<0.05), economic growth rate (P<0.1) and government health spending (P<0.1) had significant positive effect on human development while corruption and its interaction with government effectiveness did not. The results of Arrelano-Bond test of first order autocorrelation and second order autocorrelation of error term as well as the Sargan test and Hansen J test for validity of instrumental variables confirmed the validity of the model. The robustness of the estimation was established as the coefficient of the lagged dependent variable fell between the values in the fixed effect and pooled ordinary least square regression. The study recommended retraining and reorientation of government employees towards the mindset of effective service delivery and strong political will to achieve it, diversification of SSA economies alongside other growth stimulating policies such as reduced lending interest rate on loans meant for the real sector, improvement in the ease of doing business, improved funding of the health sector and proper monitoring of activities in the public service by concerned agencies to curb corruption where it is present.

Using data for 47 SSA countries from 2000 to 2016, the study examined the effect of foreign aid on human development in SSA by employing the System-GMM approach, which is specifically applicable to the present case. Results revealed that aid did not affect human development in SSA, whereas, corruption was found to reduce HDI, while trade openness improved it. Validity of results was confirmed by the Arellano-Bond test for autocorrelation in the disturbance term and the Hansen and Sargan tests for the validity of instrumental variables. The study recommended effective framework for utilization of foreign aid and reduction of corruption.

The study assessed empirically the impact of exchange rate on economic growth in Nigeria from 1981 to 2016. Data on GDP, Exchange rate, foreign direct investment (FDI), inflation rate, imports, exports, trade openness, final consumption expenditure (FCE), interest rate, and government expenditure were obtained from the different issues of the CBN Statistical Bulletin. Data series were assessed for stationarity with the aid of the ADF test. Bound test was conducted and the model was estimated within the ARDL framework supported by the relevant post estimation diagnostic tests. The bound test showed that there was long run relationship among the study variables. Model estimation revealed that import, lag of trade openness, FDI, lag of exchange rate, interest rate and inflation significantly affected the growth of the economy in the short run. In the long run, economic growth was affected by trade openness, FDI, exchange rate, government expenditure and interest rate. It was concluded that the present year exchange rate did not affect economic growth in the short run but its one year lag did, while exchange rate had negative effect on the growth of the Nigerian economy in the long run. To achieve growth in the economy, effective exchange rate management system alongside expansionary fiscal policy and encouragement of importation of capital goods are recommended.

This study determined the factors that influence the economic burden of water-borne diseases and the associated financial cost for rural households in southwestern Nigeria. A multi-stage random sampling method was used to select four hundred and thirty-seven rural households from whom data were collected for the study. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and cost of illness approach. The results revealed that an average household had six members with an average quarterly income of N80,717.52 (N160.00 = 1US dollar, at time of study). The sum of N28,571.36 was incurred as economic cost of water-borne diseases per household per quarter in the study area. Gender (p<0.05), access to safe water (P<0.1), cholera epidemic (p<0.01), diarrhoea infection (p<0.1), access to improved toilet (p<0.1) and State dummy (p<0.01) were the significant factors affecting economic burden of water-borne diseases in the study area. The study therefore recommends that rural households should consume quality water or water from improved sources (borehole and well water) so as to combat water-borne diseases. They should also seek medical attention when they fall ill. In the same vein, the three tiers of government (federal, state and local) should give more priority to sensitizing rural households on water-borne diseases control programs in order to prevent economic losses resulting from loss of income and shortage of food supply.

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between exchange rate volatility and foreign capital inflows in Nigeria. The results of the past studies were inconclusive and the uniqueness of this work also lies in the consideration of other important variables such as external debt and remittances as parts of strategic variables to capture foreign capital inflows which the bulk of the past studies have failed to recognize. Data were collected from CBN Statistical Bulletin and UNCTAD investment report from 1990 to 2016. Relevant pre-estimation tests such as unit roots and Johansen conitegration were carried out. Because all the study variables were integrated of order one i.e I(1) and have two cointegrating equations vector error correction model was estimated. Consequently, the error correction model reveals that about 32 percent of total disequilibrium due to external shock in the previous year is corrected in the current year. Therefore, it will take about three (3) years for the system to adjust back to its long run equilibrium path. Results further showed that FDI inflows increase the level of volatility in exchange rate in the short run but the volatility dies away over time. Conversely, remittance reduces exchange rate volatility while increases in external debt increase exchange rate volatility. It is recommended that the Central Bank of Nigeria should make more efforts to stabilize the exchange rate. In addition, policies and practices which may ease receipt of remittances from citizens in diaspora should be put in place while external debt should be discouraged as much as possible in the country.

Money metrics have been adopted in studies of household poverty in Nigeria while few have considered alternative methods. This study analysed poverty among households in southwest Nigeria adopting a “Multidimensional Approach”. This is necessary for robust and effective policy. Data were collected from 355 randomly selected households. Alkire-Foster’s methodology was used to assess households’ poverty and this was further decomposed. The majority of the households lacked improved toilet facilities, sanitation, improved drinking water, nearness to healthcare centres and primary schools, while most households engaged in self-medication. About 7.9 percent were deprived in all the eleven indicators considered. The Multidimensional Headcount Ratio (H) when cut-off (k) was set at 1/3 revealed that 69% of the households were poor and its Intensity (A) was 65% while the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), which is the Adjusted Head Count Ratio (M0) revealed that an average household in the area was deprived of 45% of the total potential deprivations it could experience. Decomposition by socioeconomic characteristics revealed that the poverty rate was higher among female-headed households. The same applied to households headed by divorced individuals, younger persons, farmers, less educated individuals and larger households. When k=2/3, 44.2 percent of the households were classified as poor with an “A” value of 0.416 and the MPI being 0.184. At k=1 the percentage of poor households reduced significantly to 7.9 percent with an intensity value of 0.074 and MPI of 0.006. It is recommended that government should improve access to education, health care and enforce various sanitation laws to improve households’ hygiene. Policies should also be geared towards empowering households in order to escape poverty.

There have been fluctuations in the exchange rate of Naira to other major world currencies especially the US Dollar over time. The implication of this on agricultural exports is unknown. This study determined the effect of exchange rate volatility on Nigeria’s agricultural export performance using annual data from 1980-2015. The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH-1,1) model was used to generate the exchange rate volatility series which was subsequently incorporated into the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model for determining factors affecting agricultural exports (cocoa and rubber). The Bounds Test revealed long-run relationship among variables. The results indicated that exchange rate volatility did not significantly affect exports both in the short-run and the long-run. This may be partially attributed to the inelastic nature of agricultural commodities’ supply particularly in the short run. It was also revealed that there was a positive and significant relationship between exchange rate, inflation, GDP, domestic prices, world prices and agricultural export. The study recommended that fiscal and monetary policies such as lower interest rate and import restriction on certain agricultural products should be adopted by the relevant authorities alongside other measures which may improve local production to meet both international and local demands, thereby, improving agricultural export and raising foreign exchange earnings which may translate to sustainable economic growth and lead the country out of recession.

Over the past few years, Nigeria has been faced with a series of policy changes and political instability that has led to the incidence of capital flight from Nigeria. This study sought to examine the contribution of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and other selected variables to the Agricultural productivity. The study made use of annual time series of some macroeconomic variables and agricultural productivity spanning the period1990 to 2016. The data were analysed using descriptive statistics and Multiple Regression Model. The data were further tested for stationarity using the Augmented Dicky-Fuller unit root test where it was ascertained that the entire hypothesized variable were stationary and significant (p<0.01) at first difference. The study revealed that the amount allocated to the agricultural sector declined steadily over the years with the highest value in 2014. Similarly, the determinants of agricultural productivity included exchange rate, inflation rates, GDP, Government regime and per capita arable land (ha). The study therefore recommends that balanced exchange rate should be controlled for to encourage FDI inflow into the country and funds disbursed should be properly monitored and a system put in place to ensure proper implementation of the purpose for which the funds was disbursed by the Ministry of Agriculture.