Purpose – As the Journal of Tourism Futures celebrates its 10th anniversary, Dr. Albert Postma interviews Dr. Nicole Ferdinand (Oxford Brookes University Business School). Design/methodology/approach – A personal interview. Findings – The interview provides insights about the application of scenario planning for a mega event such as Notting Hill Carnival, how the process of scenario planning was experienced by the participants and the effect the study had on the Carnival, and how it was perceived in subsequent years. Originality/value – Ferdinand shares her experiences with and learnings of the Notting Hill Carnival Futures project, conducted in 2013–2014 as first international project by the European Tourism Futures Institute.

PurposeAs the Journal of Tourism Futures celebrates its 10th Anniversary, Dr Stefan Hartman (head of department at the European Tourism Futures Institute, NHL Stenden University of Applied Sciences) interviews Prof. Albert Postma, professor of Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning) about Evolution and Future of Scenario Planning. Design/methodology/approachA personal interview held on September 12, 2024. FindingsAlbert Postma highlights the importance of scenario planning and strategic foresight and its evolution. Postma explains how he is taking a leading role in improving the impact of applications of scenario planning and strategic foresight in tourism practice. Originality/valueThe interview provides insights into the directions of scenario planning and strategic foresight applications in tourism practice and promising pathways for future academic contribution to the Journal of Tourism Futures.

Purpose - As the Journal of Tourism Futures celebrates its tenth anniversary, Dr Albert Postma interviews Dr Peter Bishop, an expert on teaching the future. The interview was held on July 25, 2024. Design/methodology/approach - A personal interview. Findings - The interview provides insights into the importance of teaching the future, the evolution in teaching the future, competencies and skills that the teaching focuses on, challenges of teaching the future in the current era and the role of AI. Originality/value - Bishop shares his expertise on the development of teaching the future, its key features and its challenges in the current era.

This book offers a practical guide for scenario planning to make sense of the future of tourism for practitioners, researchers and students. A variety of case studies are presented which demonstrate how scenario planning is deployed. They include learning points and questions to help readers understand key concepts, theories and applications.

Purpose - As the Journal of Tourism Futures celebrates its 10th anniversary, Dr. Albert Postma (NHL Stenden University) interviews Professor Ian Yeoman (NHL Stenden University) as co-editor of the Journal of Tourism Futures and expert on scenario planning in tourism and hospitality. Design/methodology/approach - A personal interview. Findings - Yeoman shares his expertise on the establishment and evolution of the Journal of Tourism Futures, in the context of the growth of futures thinking in tourism within a science and industry context. Originality/value - The interview provides insights in the evolution of futures thinking in tourism, reflected in the growth and growing reputation of the Journal of Tourism Futures.

The competitiveness of tourism products and tourist destinations heavily relies on natural and social resources. At the same time, the tourism industry’s environmental footprint and its contribution to social inequalities are incontestable. A transformation towards more sustainable tourism futures is needed to ensure a positive contribution to fulfilling the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. Today’s challenges, desirable pathways and solutions are portrayed in this book, which was co-authored by members of the International Competence Network of Tourism Research and Education (ICNT). The different chapters take the reader on a journey around the globe while discussing sustainability along the triple bottom line.

Purpose A case study about the creation of four scenarios that were used to make sense of the fast-moving pace of COVID-19 and the consequences for New Zealand tourism. Design/methodology/approach Adapting global visitor economy scenarios, a set of New Zealand tourism scenarios were constructed using a “back of house Shell” method and were supplemented with an expert panel to test the reliability and validity of the scenarios. Findings The four scenarios constructed were based on two critical uncertainties, namely economic recession and the moral dilemma of the consumer. Four scenarios were portrayed using film and TV titles to help participants visualise the scenarios. Crazy Rich Asians: Recovery represented many of the attributes of tourism in New Zealand prior to COVID-19 i.e. a focus on high value tourists from Asia. Contagion: Survival of the Fittest represented the reality of the COVID-19 pandemic. This Side of Paradise: ReThinking Tourism focused on rebuilding tourism based upon the principles of sustainability. The Colony: Gated Communities represented fortress destinations trying to keep COVID-19 at bay. Each scenario portrayed several features including a unique narrative, tourism, the tourist, vision, strategy and risks. The paper highlighted the trade-offs and conflicts between the scenarios as COVID-19 unfolded in different directions. Originality/value In a fluid situation, the paper reminds readers of the value of scenarios as framing devices to understand the fast-moving pace of COVID-19 when New Zealand was in unchartered waters. Thus, this study highlights how a scenario-planning process builds resilience and foresight to help stakeholders and actors make sense of crisis situations.

Purpose This paper aims to contribute to the understanding of the concept of a trend and the discourse of trend analysis. Design/methodology/approach This paper concisely discusses the concept of trends, the value of trend analysis for strategic planning and hierarchical trend pyramids as a tool to scan and analyse trends. Findings The examples will be given of how specific mega, meso and micro trends are related within a hierarchic trend pyramid. Practical implications The tool of trend pyramids helps to structurally analyse and understand trends and developments. Such analysis and understanding are relevant for strategic foresight and scenario planning in leisure and tourism. Originality/value The literature on trend levels and pyramids is scarce and varies in interpretation. The aim of this paper is to integrate the various viewpoints into a useful instrument for the scanning and analysis of trends and developments.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of systems thinking and its value for strategic foresight and scenario planning to address disruptive forces from the outside, with the outbreak of COVID19 as a case study. Design/methodology/approach This conceptual paper concisely discusses the notion of systems thinking and the concept of complex adaptive systems and puts this in the context of contemporary society in general and travel and tourism in particular. Strategic foresight and scenario planning are introduced as an approach to anticipate disruptions in the complex adaptive travel and tourism system. Findings As COVID-19 has demonstrated, travel and tourism is sensitive for disruptions from the outside. To ensure long-term resilience and sustainability, a systems approach embedded in strategic foresight and scenario planning is emphasised. Practical implications Strategic foresight and scenario planning is a competence that can be learned. Originality/value Given the present status of COVID-19 and other disruptors on travel and tourism, a resilient approach to the future is necessary; thus, the value of this viewpoint paper is the proposition of an adaptive capacity system. This paper offers advice to understand and manage complexity and adaptive systems.

Even though overtourism is now recognised as one of the main future challenges for sustainable tourism development, there is still uncertainty on how to manage the issue. This chapter looks at the ways in which cities deal with overtourism, and addresses the possibilities and limitations of current approaches. Most solutions are found to be aimed at adaptation of tourism practices, by increasing the capacity of existing systems or improving residents' perceptions of tourism; also by means of 'smart' technological solutions. However, such adaptative solutions are unlikely to be enough in the future. Structural long-term solutions may be required that focus not just on tourism as a separate sector, but instead take a wider systems perspective for managing tourism. This chapter provides initial suggestions for such a systems perspective of managing overtourism, and does justice to the increased complexity of the problem of managing the interests of residents and visitors. Such a perspective could help deal not just with the effects of (over)tourism, but also with the disturbances and annoyances that underlie it, within and outside of tourism.

In less than two years, the concept of overtourism has come to prominence as one of the most discussed issues with regards to tourism in popular media and, increasingly, academia. In spite of its popularity, the term is still not clearly delineated and remains open to multiple interpretations. The current paper aims to provide more clarity with regard to what overtourism entails by placing the concept in a historical context and presenting results from a qualitative investigation among 80 stakeholders in 13 European cities. Results highlight that overtourism describes an issue that is multidimensional and complex. Not only are the issues caused by tourism and nontourism stakeholders, but they should also be viewed in the context of wider societal and city developments. The article concludes by arguing that while the debate on overtourism has drawn attention again to the old problem of managing negative tourism impacts, it is not well conceptualized. Seven overtourism myths are identified that may inhibit a well-rounded understanding of the concept. To further a contextualized understanding of overtourism, the paper calls for researchers from other disciplines to engage with the topic to come to new insights.

This study addresses the complex phenomenon of overtourism in the EU. By focusing on a set of case studies, the study reports on overtourism indicators, discusses management approaches implemented within different destinations and assesses policy responses. It concludes that a common set of indicators cannot be defined because of the complex causes and effects of overtourism. Avoiding overtourism requires custom-made policies in cooperation between destinations' stakeholders and policymakers