Minnesota moose are heat‐stressed during summers, which is adversely impacting their survival. We used both movement and activity data to explore the behavioral responses of Minnesota moose experiencing heat stress, termed ‘hot moose events' or HMEs, to understand how both ambient temperature and available habitat contribute to the ability of these moose to thermoregulate. Hot moose (≥ 39.17°C, as determined by internal biologgers that continuously recorded body temperature), failed to adopt the behavioral switch to foraging habitats during nocturnal activity displayed by moose maintaining normal body temperatures (i.e. normal moose), which might improve their overall fitness and survival. Hot moose also selected habitats differently than normal moose, including using open canopies that offer little mid‐day protection from solar radiation (e.g. ash swamp, meadow marsh bog), whereas normal moose had a stronger selection for thermal refugia. We further investigated the behaviors of moose prone to repeated HMEs within a summer season. Members of this group were majority male, experienced 5× the daily rate of HMEs compared to other hot moose, and were more likely to die. Our findings suggest some moose are making behavioral choices that appear to undermine their ability to thermoregulate on hot summer days, adversely impacting their survival. Individual drivers are likely complex and include both moose health factors and the availability or arrangement of quality forage and cover types. Although we were unable to pinpoint a difference in overall landscape composition between the choices hot and normal moose make, it is likely that fine‐scale differences in habitat features, such as patch size, forest structure, and distance to cover, play a key role. Future forest management efforts supporting both thermal and forage needs of moose will help mitigate summer heat stress in populations threatened by climate change.

Large ungulate populations can threaten forest regeneration and many rare or declining understory plants, birds, and small mammals. Reintroduction of large predators is often proposed as a remedy to reduce negative ecosystem effects associated with high ungulate populations, but we know little about the effectiveness of this approach. We assessed whether wolves (Canis lupus) can protect forest understory plants from excessive white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) browse. We planted white oak (Quercus alba), red oak (Quercus rubra), and zigzag goldenrod (Solidago flexicaulis) seedlings across a gradient of wolf density and residence time in northern Wisconsin and recorded deer browse and frequency of 11 common understory plants at each site. We found that wolf density and residence time had negative effects on deer browse intensity, but these effects were generally weak except when understory vegetation was abundant. Additionally, the presence of common understory plants decreased as a function of wolf density, opposite to what we would expect for a wolf-driven trophic cascade. The weak reduction in browse probability that is associated with wolves, particularly when vegetation is scarce, is unlikely to improve forest regeneration and recovery of understory plant communities currently threatened by high deer populations.

Foresters and natural resource managers are increasingly exploring opportunities for the early detection of emerging forest health concerns. One of these emerging concerns is the eastern larch beetle (ELB, Dendroctonus simplex LeConte), a native insect of tamarack (Larix laricina (Du Roi) K., Koch). Historically, the ELB attacked only dead or dying trees, but with climate change, it is now becoming a damaging disturbance agent that affects healthy trees as well. This shift creates a need to evaluate the methods used to detect and quantify the impacted areas. In northern Wisconsin, USA, 50 tamarack stands or aerial detection polygons were surveyed in the field during the 2023 growing season to explore different detection tools for ELBs. We visited 20 polygons identified by aerial sketch map surveys as having ELB mortality, 20 tamarack stands identified by the Astrape satellite imagery algorithm as disturbed, and 10 randomly selected stands from the Wisconsin forest inventory database (WisFIRs) for landscape-level context. For each of the detection methods and the Random stands, information on species composition, mortality, signs of ELB, invasive species, and water presence was quantified. ELBs were common across the landscape, but were not always associated with high levels of mortality. While overstory tree mortality was frequently observed in both aerial sketch map surveys and Astrape, it was not always linked to tamarack mortality. Current methods of detection may need to be re-evaluated in this environment. Tamarack stands in northern Wisconsin were highly heterogeneous in species, which is likely contributing to the difficulties in identifying both tamarack mortality and tamarack mortality specifically caused by ELBs across the two detection methods. Given the evolving impacts of climate change and the shifting dynamics between forests and insects, it is essential to evaluate and innovate detection methods to manage these ecosystems effectively.

Forest managers recognize that proactive management strategies, such as forest assisted migration (FAM) of tree species, intended to accelerate the pace of forest adaptation, may be necessary to maintain resilient forests and combat the stressors of climate change. However, the impact of interactions between climate change and ungulate browsers of trees, both of which have profound effects on the landscape, on the success of FAM efforts is unknown. We used a forest landscape model (LANDIS‐II) to simulate assisted migration and browsing by ungulate (white‐tailed deer [ Odocoileus virginianus ]) populations on a northern Wisconsin (USA) landscape under alternate climate futures. After accounting for effects of FAM strategy and climate change scenario, simulated ungulate browsing reduced species richness and the proportion of the landscape with tree species preferred by browsers and resulted in more of the landscape developing into novel forest communities that supported fewer ecosystem goods and services. Our results suggest that managers may need to select FAM species less preferred by ungulates or use seedling protection measures to mitigate the negative effects of chronically high ungulate populations in efforts to transition future forests to sustain ecosystem goods and services.

IntroductionGlobal climate change and associated stressors threaten forest ecosystems due to the rapid pace of climate change, which could exceed the natural migration rate of some tree species. In response, there is growing interest to research and implement forest assisted migration (FAM). Here, we used a species-independent indicator based on climate analogy, according to the sigma (dis)similarity (σd) index, to match planting sites across the eastern US with (future) climatically-compatible seedlots (CCS).MethodsWe developed CCS for a grid composed of 1 × 1° of latitude and longitude. CCS were based on future climate analogs with ≤2σd analogy to ensure CCS were representative of future climate change. CCS were located for three time periods, 2030's, 2050's, and 2090's and three emissions scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 database, using 12 climate variables.ResultsCCS were identified for the majority of 1 × 1° grids based on the SSP3-7.0 scenario. Approximately 28% of 1 × 1° grid's 2090's projections included future climate novelty. The 2030's, 2050's, and 2090's CCS were located on average 222, 358, and 662 km or 1, 2, and 3 eastern seed zones away from the 1 × 1° grids, respectively. CCS were also located further south-southwest (188–197°). In addition, the average forest cover of CCS was approximately 2%, 5%, and 10% less than that of the 1 × 1° grids.DiscussionOur development and synthesis of CCS emphasized four key results: (i) average distances to 2030's and 2050's CCS were similar to seed-transfer guidelines for some tree species, but 2090's CCS exceeded current recommendations; (ii) south-southwesterly locations of CCS aligned with tree species habitat distribution dynamics; (iii) future climate novelty potentially challenges the conceptual basis of FAM if tree species are not adapted to climate change; and (iv) variation in forest cover among CCS presents potential opportunities and challenges due the presence or absence of forestland to source seed. Ultimately, our goal was to locate and synthesize CCS that could enable FAM decision support.

Within black ash (Fraxinus nigra Marshall) wetlands, black ash acts as a foundational species, resulting in high vulnerability to the invasive emerald ash borer (EAB) (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Buprestidae). One mitigation strategy being considered is the planting of alternative tree species to increase compositional diversity, however, there is limited understanding of how replacement tree species tolerate flooding. A greenhouse experiment was used to explore early survival and growth of eighteen tree species in response to five flooding durations (3, 6, 9, 12, or 15 weeks). Seedlings were assigned to flood tolerance groups according to their responses to the various flooding duration treatments. Taxodium distichum (L.) Rich., Ulmus americana L., and Betula nigra L. were able to survive and grow with flooding durations of up to 15 weeks. Thuja occidentalis L., Acer rubrum L., Larix laricina (Du Roi) K. Koch, Quercus bicolor Willd., and Betula alleghaniensis Britton had high survival and growth rates with flooding durations up to 6 weeks in length. Finally, Juglans nigra L. and Acer saccharum Marshall responded poorly to flooding of any duration. These results can assist managers in matching potential black ash replacement species to the hydrology of their local black ash wetlands.

Since the development of contemporary stocking techniques a century ago, the combination of climatic, atmospheric, financial, and social factors that determine forest management strategies have changed, altering aspen stand dynamics in the western Great Lakes, USA. Despite this, aspen management is still informed by 1970s management guides that are based on 1920s inventories; hence, a century exists between the data that underlie current management guidelines and current stand conditions. We hypothesized that current aspen stands may support higher stocking and height growth than nearly a century ago at relatively similar age and site indices, due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and fertilization, intensive coppice harvests, and other factors. To explore this question, we compared historic aspen observations with comparable contemporary data from the USDA Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and Analysis program. The results show increased stand stocking levels as well as increased height growth of aspen throughout the region over the historic inventory data. Although other controlled experimental studies support the hypothesis of increased carbon fertilization altering aspen size-density relationships, our study is the first to examine an empirical application to forest management guides. Our results suggest a comprehensive reevaluation of aspen growth dynamics under contemporary environmental conditions is warranted. We highlight the need to assess the value of current stocking standards in an era of increasingly variable environmental conditions and to reimagine a more dynamic, responsive, and predictive approach to guide forest management for future application as global change may accelerate.

Global change is reshaping climatic conditions at a tempo that exceeds natural migration rates for most tree species. As climate change amplifies the disparity between species' adaptive capacity and local climates, tree populations risk becoming geographically stranded in increasingly unsuitable conditions. This mismatch may cause catastrophic losses of key forest ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, habitat provisioning, and forest products. In response, forest managers and researchers are developing a suite of climate-adaptive strategies designed to sustain forest diversity and function. Among these, forest assisted migration (FAM) involves the movement of planting stock from source populations to locations either within or beyond their current ranges. The goal is to establish forests that can survive in today's climate and expected to thrive in future conditions, thereby sustaining ecosystem good and services. Because FAM is still in its infancy, implementation is limited by many uncertainties. Climatically derived seed sourcing is needed to ensure that planting stock possesses the ecophysiological amplitude to withstand both current and future climatic conditions at the destination site. Additionally, more knowledge about the impacts of local herbivores and intraspecific competition are needed because these drivers will co-regulate seedling success along with climate. Practically, these uncertainties must be addressed to instill in managers sufficient confidence that FAM investments will fulfill long-term management and societal goals relative to other silvicultural approaches. The Desired REgeneration through Assisted Migration (DREAM) framework is an international collaboration that uses basic and applied research to reduce these uncertainties and derive climate-informed planting approaches. DREAM is self-reinforcing in that each step in the process informs and strengthens subsequent phases. Namely, it sources seed in a climatically informed manner, experimentally tests this sourced stock to probe for physiological maladaptation under controlled settings, grows the stock in the field under a range of silvicultural scenarios, and finally forecasts long-term outcomes using models parameterized from the controlled- and fieldtests. In this paper, we describe the DREAM framework and illustrate aspects of its implementation drawing from two experimental sites: one in Que & PRIME;bec, Canada and one in Wisconsin, USA. Moreover, we place the DREAM study into the broader FAM context by briefly contrasting it with other operational examples throughout North America. Knowledge gained from this research-management collaboration will expand current reforestation paradigms to include future climate-adaptive ones that aim to use the right seed, planted in the right places, under the right conditions.

Climate change represents an existential threat to many forest ecosystems because tree populations are often adapted to local climate means and variability. If tree populations cannot migrate or adapt, they risk becoming increasingly maladapted with climate change. This emerging mismatch underscores the need for climate adaptive management techniques, such as assisted migration of tree species, to help mitigate climate change impacts on forest ecosystems. Although biotic and abiotic factors are known to constrain tree establishment success, the extent to which they may determine the success of assisted migration plantings is poorly understood. Thus, defining the extent to which trees affect—and in turn are affected by local soil environments and microbial communities (i.e., plant-soil feedbacks; hereafter PSFs) remains important for guiding effective climate-adaptive forest management. Our objectives were to synthesize the current state of knowledge about the direction and magnitude of PSF effects on temperate tree species of eastern North America, and to identify key hypotheses important for guiding future research. To accomplish these goals, we conducted a meta-analysis of 26 peer-reviewed publications that addressed our criteria. Our compiled database included 61 tree species and was composed primarily of short-term greenhouse experiments that studied PSF effects by manipulating the soil biota in three ways: (1) soil was previously inoculated by a conspecific or heterospecific tree species (i.e., home vs. away), (2) soil was live or sterilized, or (3) soil was untreated or treated with fungicide. We found that PSF had significant effects on tree growth, with the direction and magnitude of PSF strongly dependent on tree mycorrhizal guild. Arbuscular mycorrhizal tree species grown in live or home soils grew 13–33% less than those in sterile or away soils, while ectomycorrhizal tree species grew 11–44% more in live or home than sterile or away soils. PSF effects were associated with several plant functional traits, including specific leaf area, tissue nitrogen, and specific root length. We provide suggestions on incorporating PSFs into assisted migration trials and outline key knowledge gaps for future research. Our synthesis of context-dependent effects of PSFs on tree performance will help inform management decisions involving assisted migration.

In temperate and northern ecosystems where there are pronounced seasonal patterns in weather and available energy, there are corresponding patterns of body condition among white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Body condition of white-tailed deer can affect survival and reproduction, which has large repercussions for state-level natural resource agencies that allocate hunting permits. In this study, we investigated how variation in winter weather, spring phenology, habitat composition, and browse quantity affected white-tailed deer body condition across a large spatial scale. Several body condition indicators (e.g., carcass mass, heart fat, antler size) were measured by hunters for 795 deer during September-December 2016-2018 in Wisconsin, USA. Winter severity in the previous year was an unreliable predictor of fall body condition of deer when winters were considered mild or moderate. The timing of spring green-up had a consistent effect on the body condition of all age and sex classes of deer. Earlier spring green-up resulted in heavier fawns and larger antlers among adult males. Region and spring green-up interacted to affect the heart fat of adult females. Earlier springs resulted in adult females in northern and central Wisconsin having a higher probability of heavy heart fat, whereas spring green-up had no effect on adult female heart fat in southern Wisconsin. Effects of habitat differed by age and sex class of deer, and by the body condition metric being evaluated, indicating that there are important physiological differences among age and sex classes of deer that are affected by the environment. Our study demonstrates that the hunting public can contribute large-scale, cost-effective, and quality data to deer monitoring and research projects. It is important that natural resource agencies be able to identify and recruit highly engaged members of the hunting public to ensure project success. The timing of spring green-up can have lasting effects on deer health that can be consistently observed the following fall, which is in contrast to the effects of winter severity that did not appear to persist when previous winters were mild or moderate. We encourage managers in northern or temperate regions to consider measures of spring green-up timing in conjunction with traditional winter severity when making deer population management decisions, such as antlerless tag allocation.

Research suggests that math and test anxiety have detrimental impacts on performance in math. To prevent these effects, a number of interventions have been developed, but these interventions have not been extensively tested. In the current study, we examine whether four brief anxiety interventions reduce state anxiety and/or increase math performance. We also examine whether any of the interventions weaken the relation between math or test anxiety and math performance. Participants were 300 college students varying in math and test anxiety levels. Participants were randomly assigned to one of four single-session interventions, which each took 5 minutes or less (reappraisal as challenge, reappraisal as excitement, expressive writing, and look ahead), or a no intervention control group. Results generally show that none of the interventions had an effect on reports of state anxiety or performance on a difficult math assessment, with the exception that students in the expressive writing condition reported higher levels of state anxiety. None of the interventions served to attenuate the relation between math or test anxiety and math performance. These findings were not consistent with results of previous work, and suggest that interventions may need to be more extensive in order to have an effect on state anxiety and math performance.

Meta-analyses from the 1990s have previously established a significant, small-to-moderate, and negative correlation between math achievement and math anxiety. Since these publications, research has continued to investigate this relation with more diverse samples and measures. Thus, the goal of the present meta-analysis was to provide an update of the math anxiety-math achievement relation and its moderators. Analyzing 747 effect sizes accumulated from research conducted between 1992 and 2018, we found a small-to-moderate, negative, and statistically significant correlation (r = -.28) between math anxiety and math achievement. The relation was significant for all moderator subgroups, with the exception of the relation between math anxiety and assessments measuring the approximate number system. Grade level, math ability level, adolescent/adult math anxiety scales, math topic of anxiety scale, and math assessments were significant moderators of this relation. There is also a tendency for published studies to report significantly stronger correlations than unpublished studies but, overall, large, negative effect sizes are under-reported. Our results are consistent with previous findings of a significant relation between math anxiety and math achievement. This association starts in childhood, remains significant through adulthood, is smaller for students in grades 3 through 5 and postsecondary school, is larger for math anxiety than for statistics anxiety and for certain math anxiety scales, and is smaller for math exam grades and samples selected for low math ability. This work supports future research efforts to determine effective math achievement and math anxiety interventions, which may be most helpful to implement during childhood.

Despite the importance of the Parelaphostrongylus tenuis infection for moose (Alces alces) and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) management, only one peer-reviewed study has evaluated the relationship between deer and moose densities and the potential for parasite-mediated competition between the species. Using polynomial-regression modeling, that study identified a deer-density threshold above which moose populations declined; however, the nature of the data and apparent outliers suggests the approach used to develop that threshold may not have been appropriate. We used the data from the original study to test whether alternative models, including linear models and negative binomial models would be less sensitive to outliers and could better explain that relationship. We found no evidence that moose density decreases as deer density increases. We concluded that, although the proposed moose-deer-P. tenuis relationship could be partially density dependent, additional factors, such as frequency dependence of disease transmission, gastropod abundance, and shared use of resources by moose and deer should also be considered.

Anthropogenic habitat change and moderating climatic conditions have enabled the northward geographic expansion of white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginianus, and of the parasitic nematode (meningeal worm) it carries, Parelaphostrongylus tenuis. This expansion can have consequences in dead-end host species for other ungulates because meningeal worm reduces health, causes morbidity or direct mortality, and has been attributed to population declines. In northeastern Minnesota, which marks the southern extent of the bioclimatic range for moose (Alces alces), the moose population has declined more than 50% in the last decade, with studies detecting P. tenuis in 25–45% of necropsied animals. We assessed the factors that most commonly are associated with meningeal worm infection by linking moose movement ecology with known P. tenuis infection status from necropsy. We outfitted moose with GPS collars to assess their space use and cause-specific mortality. Upon death of the subject animal, we performed a necropsy to determine the cause of death and document meningeal worm infection. We then created statistical models to assess the relationship between meningeal worm infection and exposure to hypothesized factors of infection risk based on the space use of each moose by season. Predictors included land cover types, deer space use and density, environmental conditions, and demographics of individual moose (age and sex). Moose with autumn home ranges that included more upland shrub/conifer, and individuals with high proportions of wet environments, regardless of season, had increased infection risk. In contrast, the strongest relationships we found showed that high proportions of mixed and conifer forest within spring home ranges resulted in reduced risk of infection. The spring models showed the strongest relationships between exposure and infection, potentially due to moose foraging on ground vegetation during spring. By incorporating movement of moose into disease ecology, we were able to take a top-down approach to test hypothesized components of infection risk with actual spatial and temporal exposure of individual necropsied moose. The probability of infection for moose was not influenced by deer density, although deer densities did not vary greatly within the study area (2–4 deer/km2), highlighting the importance of also considering both moose space use and environmental conditions in understanding infection risk. We suggest management strategies that use a combination of deer and land management prescriptions designed to limit contact rates in susceptible populations.

Although there is an extensive amount of research that examines the relation between math anxiety and math performance in adolescents and adults, little work has focused on this relation in young children. Recently more attention has been paid to the early development of math anxiety, and new measures have been created for use with this age group. In the present study, we report on the development and validation of a revised version of the Math Anxiety Scale for Young Children (MASYC; Harari et al., 2013). We conducted cognitive interviews with the 12 MASYC items with nine children and then administered the MASYC and five newly-developed items to 296 first-, second- and third-grade children. Results from cognitive interviews show that three of the items from the original scale were being systematically misinterpreted by young children. We present a revised measure (the MASYC-R) consisting of 13 items (eight original, five newly-developed) that shows strong evidence for reliability and validity. Results also showed that a small, but meaningful, proportion of children at this age show signs of high math anxiety. Validity of the MASYC-R was supported through correlations with a number of other factors, including general anxiety, math performance, and math attitudes. In addition, results suggest that a substantial proportion of the variance in math anxiety can be explained from these other variables together. The findings suggest that the MASYC-R is appropriate for use with young children and can help researchers to answer important questions about the nature and development of math anxiety at this age.

Habitat used immediately after parturition is important to survival of moose calves, though different habitat types may be functionally similar and thus contribute to the variability in habitat use reported in the literature. Neonates are relatively immobile, which restricts movement of the cow-calf pair and makes both vulnerable to predation. The cow also requires adequate access to forage during the period when calf mobility is limited. We used fine-scale movement data to determine linear distance traveled to the birth site as well as habitat use by cow-calf pairs in northeast Minnesota. All cows made long distance movements (x = 6 km) to the birth site where they localized in 1.72 ± 0.48 ha (95% kernel polygon) for approximately 7 ± 0.7 days. A mosaic of cover types that reflected availability across the landscape were used by the cow prior to localization at the birth site. Birth site areas consisted of one cover type rather than the mosaic used before birth, and varied among cows, though bogs were used most often (40%). The small birth site area and use of bog habitat were likely a consequence of low calf mobility post-parturition. Upon exiting the birth site, cow-calf pairs shifted toward use of mixed and young/regenerating forest which likely reflects the need and use for highly nutritious browse to meet the high energetic cost of lactation.